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malepoon | 4 years ago

Twitter thread from a vaccine developer: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1464222680731820043.html

A lot of speculation still, but it's not all bad so far.

discuss

order

koheripbal|4 years ago

His argument is fallacious.

He's saying that since there all other variants we're susceptible to the vaccine, it's unlikely that this one is.

...and goes on to list the high number of different markers the vaccines target.

Unfortunately, vaccines largely target the spike proteins, and sequencing of omicron is demonstrating that every single protein marker on the spike is changed.

Vaccines will likely have a very small effect on this variant.

There are also two other mutations of concern that have never been seen together that each increase binding to ACE2 for cell entry.

This all needs to be formally confirmed, but this is probably BAD.

op00to|4 years ago

No. If every single “protein marker” on the spike protein was changed, there wouldn’t be a heck of a lot of chance for the virus to attach to a cell. There still needs to be basic compatibility with the cell and the spike to get inside.

IAmGraydon|4 years ago

The person you’re claiming is incorrect worked on developing the MRNA vaccines. What are your qualifications?

bawolff|4 years ago

If the variant is already on the rise couldn't we figure this out by looking at the demographics of who is infected (are most of the cases vaccinated people? Are people previously having covid getting this variant). I don't know anything about the field, but it seems like we shouldn't need that high an infection rate before we can start verifying these concerns empirically, especially when a large majority of the population is vaccinated.

f38zf5vdt|4 years ago

A study in Nature had previously shown that >= 20 amino acid mutations on the spike protein was sufficient to cause immune escape from the vaccine or previous infection, but that individuals who were both previously infected and vaccinated were still able to neutralize the mutant virus. [1]

The omicron variant has >30 AA mutations on the spike protein, so it remains to be seen how effective vaccines are in response to it. Even if it is unable to prevent infection, it's still likely that the vaccines will provide some attenuation of severity, especially with a booster. We also now have pharmaceutical means to treat infections, so any notions that this will bring us back to March 2020 seem unrealistic.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-04005-0

dnautics|4 years ago

We also don't know what the mortality rate is. Suppose it has 100% vaccine escape but 0% mortality. Would it be "BAD"?

Kye|4 years ago

Chise is a she/her-shaped creature as far as I know.

nostromo|4 years ago

This image really puts it in context: https://images.app.goo.gl/13amCWF8aJ8q2eZAA

The red portion of the graph on the far right is the new variant.

tigershark|4 years ago

It started from an extremely low base. And extrapolating that curve is completely wrong as you can see from today numbers. 2.8k compared to yesterday 2.4K. It’s obviously still early to know anything conclusive but the relatively small increase today is a very good sign. We’ll know something more next week.

sharken|4 years ago

To further put things into perspective, here the daily number of infections have gone from a few hundred up to 5.000.

And this was before Omicron was known.

reindeer76|4 years ago

[deleted]

azeirah|4 years ago

I'd imagine many people in power have various hobbies you'd consider odd if you knew about them. (nevermind fetishes, oh my god!)

mdni007|4 years ago

And he's a scientist but believes in horoscopes. I don't think I've seen someone living a more hypocritical lifestyle

Kye|4 years ago

Furries come from a broad cross-section of civilization, though tech has outsized representation as a profession. It's highly likely someone you know and respect is a furry.