[candeira]

My explanation of the base rate fallacy is that most car crashes are caused by people who hold a valid driver's permit. The number of crashes caused by unlicensed drivers is negligible. Therefore, we should stop issuing driving licenses.

Most people I explain this to recognise the fallacy, even if they're not trained in statistics.

A huge problem with vaccine denialism is that it stems from motivated thinking. People aren't being persuaded by bullshit arguments; rather, they already agree with the conclusions, and look to these spurious correlations as emotional support.