From everything I've heard, Omicron is much less dangerous than Delta or previous strands. Also, I've read that the Spanish flu ended with a fourth variant that was much milder than previous variants.
Assuming natural immunity is better than vaccine, and this variant is very mild, this is probably the one you want to get. What if boosters are being pushed at the worst possible time? With boosters you're less likely to get Covid, and what we've seen is that vaccines have a relatively short period in which they are effective. If you skip this variant, couldn't you get affected by a much less mild variant once the resistance wears off?
What am I missing here?
That being said, you should probably listen to your local authorities / doctors which are currently advocating everyone get a booster.
> “Unfortunately, we’re seeing a more than doubling of hospital admissions each day,” said Ian Sanne, an infectious diseases specialist who serves on South Africa’s COVID-19 presidential advisory committee.
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It would be wonderful news if this variant is milder than Alpha or Delta. But we don't actually have hard evidence of that yet. In a month or two, we'll probably know for sure.
EDIT: A lot of the variants follow this pattern. People think its milder, because there are more cases than there are hospitalizations. Then, 2 weeks later, the cases become more severe and everyone goes to the hospitals.
So we have to wait. Wait for these new patients, and see if they get better or worse. It takes time before the disease progress into hospitalization stage, and we've only had Omicron in the world for the past 2 weeks or so. Barely enough time for the first few patients to start to enter the hospital.
> Assuming natural immunity is better than vaccine
This is a big assumption. Both types of immunity have their advantages, but a study published by the CDC last month [1] suggests the vaccine provided more reliable immunity (against past strains). Meanwhile, Omicron is currently going around reinfecting tons of people in South Africa. It’s hard to guess how protective a vaccine or infection today might be against a future strain, but even if infection is better, it’s probably not much better. Meanwhile, it’s obviously much more dangerous in the present (even if Omicron might be a little milder than previous strains).
"At least 16 U.S. states have reported Omicron cases: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Utah, Washington and Wisconsin, according to a Reuters tally.
Many of the cases were among fully vaccinated individuals with mild symptoms, although the booster shot status of some patients was not reported.
Despite several dozen Omicron cases, the Delta variant still accounts for 99.9% of new COVID cases in the United States, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky told ABC News in an interview."
>> the Delta variant still accounts for 99.9% of new COVID cases in the United States
ourworldindata.org reports, as-of 6 December 2021, the share of analyzed sequences in the last two weeks that correspond to omicron is 14% in the USA and 10% in Canada. (https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus)
Did Dr Wallensky give any hints about the source of her statistic, if it was based on analyzed sequences, or over what observation period it was derived?
Why the big difference in estimates of the present significance of omicron?
i have been told, that the "push for omicron" is a conspiratorial way of china to distance itself from C19. now its omicron from africa instead of covid from china.
I can't believe the optimism! A pathogen that's 5 times more contagious and probably only half less lethal is actually 2.5 times more dangerous as it will kill more people as an absolute value! Not to mention the immune escape, which means that a lot of people who felt self as of last week are not safe anymore!
"probably only half less lethal" you're entire scenario is based on this nonsense. "Very mild symptoms". As of the weekend there were no hospitalisations in the UK. This is irrelevant.
"5 times more contagious" isn't the same as "5 times as many people will be infected". Given your numbers, the new one is way more than 2.5 times more dangerous.
[+] [-] bko|4 years ago|reply
Assuming natural immunity is better than vaccine, and this variant is very mild, this is probably the one you want to get. What if boosters are being pushed at the worst possible time? With boosters you're less likely to get Covid, and what we've seen is that vaccines have a relatively short period in which they are effective. If you skip this variant, couldn't you get affected by a much less mild variant once the resistance wears off?
What am I missing here?
That being said, you should probably listen to your local authorities / doctors which are currently advocating everyone get a booster.
[+] [-] dragontamer|4 years ago|reply
https://www.voanews.com/a/south-africa-readies-hospitals-as-...
> “Unfortunately, we’re seeing a more than doubling of hospital admissions each day,” said Ian Sanne, an infectious diseases specialist who serves on South Africa’s COVID-19 presidential advisory committee.
-------
It would be wonderful news if this variant is milder than Alpha or Delta. But we don't actually have hard evidence of that yet. In a month or two, we'll probably know for sure.
EDIT: A lot of the variants follow this pattern. People think its milder, because there are more cases than there are hospitalizations. Then, 2 weeks later, the cases become more severe and everyone goes to the hospitals.
So we have to wait. Wait for these new patients, and see if they get better or worse. It takes time before the disease progress into hospitalization stage, and we've only had Omicron in the world for the past 2 weeks or so. Barely enough time for the first few patients to start to enter the hospital.
[+] [-] comex|4 years ago|reply
This is a big assumption. Both types of immunity have their advantages, but a study published by the CDC last month [1] suggests the vaccine provided more reliable immunity (against past strains). Meanwhile, Omicron is currently going around reinfecting tons of people in South Africa. It’s hard to guess how protective a vaccine or infection today might be against a future strain, but even if infection is better, it’s probably not much better. Meanwhile, it’s obviously much more dangerous in the present (even if Omicron might be a little milder than previous strains).
[1] https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/2021103...
[+] [-] anshumankmr|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] roody15|4 years ago|reply
If the virus has evolved into a more contagious milder version then this is excellent news.
[+] [-] ludamad|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rolph|4 years ago|reply
"At least 16 U.S. states have reported Omicron cases: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Utah, Washington and Wisconsin, according to a Reuters tally.
Many of the cases were among fully vaccinated individuals with mild symptoms, although the booster shot status of some patients was not reported.
Despite several dozen Omicron cases, the Delta variant still accounts for 99.9% of new COVID cases in the United States, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky told ABC News in an interview."
taken from the article
[+] [-] lucas_membrane|4 years ago|reply
ourworldindata.org reports, as-of 6 December 2021, the share of analyzed sequences in the last two weeks that correspond to omicron is 14% in the USA and 10% in Canada. (https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus)
Did Dr Wallensky give any hints about the source of her statistic, if it was based on analyzed sequences, or over what observation period it was derived?
Why the big difference in estimates of the present significance of omicron?
[+] [-] rce|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] melling|4 years ago|reply
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29396717
[+] [-] EvanKnowles|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] 2Gkashmiri|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|4 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] nikolay|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] archsurface|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] suyula|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sbelskie|4 years ago|reply