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ADSSDA | 4 years ago

I don't have to trust public health agencies. I can go look up the numbers in my local hospital or ask family members who work there. >90% of ICU cases and deaths are unvaccinated. Hand wavy arguments about "the data is bad!" from a non-peer reviewed paper with 0 citations does not convince me that you're arguing in good faith.

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native_samples|4 years ago

If your (English) family are telling you that then I wonder when they said it because the official figures were just updated and say >50% in ICU are vaccinated now. It's been changing over time because the vaccines wear off so fast.

ADSSDA|4 years ago

Now you are falling victim to a very common cognitive bias known as the "base rate fallacy". Please read the following:

https://garycornell.com/2021/07/28/the-base-rate-fallacy-x-o...

EDIT:

In the case of my numbers, I'm based in the US. I wish we had a high enough vaccination rate to worry about the base rate fallacy. I'm surrounded by rural areas who unfortunately don't believe in vaccines until they show up in the ER. We have an enormous surgical backlog due to antivaxxers having filled up the hospitals for months on end.