I added the original source so you can explore in more detail. You can see that in previous spikes there was a short delay, but in general they rose in tandem. All evidence points to Omicron as far less lethal than Delta.
The chart towards the bottom of this page [1] provides another source.
Like others my initial reaction was “deaths lag” but upon closer inspection the data is more nuanced: While deaths do lag, in previous waves deaths had risen substantially by the time cases peaked, but with omicron in South Africa cases have already peaked but deaths have barely risen. This could be partly because the omicron wave has peaked faster (~3 weeks) than previous waves (~1 month or more), partly because the population has more immunity, and partly because omicron is less severe?
I’m not sure yet. All in all, I’m optimistic but will wait another week or two to be convinced.
nostromo|4 years ago
divbzero|4 years ago
Like others my initial reaction was “deaths lag” but upon closer inspection the data is more nuanced: While deaths do lag, in previous waves deaths had risen substantially by the time cases peaked, but with omicron in South Africa cases have already peaked but deaths have barely risen. This could be partly because the omicron wave has peaked faster (~3 weeks) than previous waves (~1 month or more), partly because the population has more immunity, and partly because omicron is less severe?
I’m not sure yet. All in all, I’m optimistic but will wait another week or two to be convinced.
[1]: https://covid19.who.int/region/afro/country/za
herodoturtle|4 years ago