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Russian Invasion of Ukraine Is ‘Almost Certain,' Cyber Expert Says

38 points| zola | 4 years ago |spytalk.co

39 comments

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PhantomGremlin|4 years ago

The biggest thing that puzzles me about this (and about many recent geopolitical events) is the elephant in the room. Nobody mentions it:

   The United Nations
Why isn't this issue being discussed there, prominently?

If it's not possible to even discuss the behavior of the 5 permanent Security Council members (5 of the most powerful countries in the world), then screw it! Let's just get rid of the UN entirely.

unionpivo|4 years ago

Because that's not what UN is. UN is not a world government.

UN for all it's glory, is just a permanent place for countries to to talk to each other.

Think of it as an expo/trade conference for governments that is always running.

The issue here is that Russia doesn't seem to want to talk to anyone (except their demand for 1on1 with USA), and can veto anything on the security council, so UN has little role to play.

> If it's not possible to even discuss the behavior of the 5 permanent Security Council members (5 of the most powerful countries in the world)

Sure you can discuss it, but to what gain ? Just to further piss some of them off ?

> then screw it! Let's just get rid of the UN entirely.

UN is a tool, but unlike a hammer can't always be used. That doesn't mean its useless.

> 5 of the most powerful countries in the world

This is a fantasy people live in that world is a fair place. It's not and it has never been. In private life we have come far, and you could say that at least in most developed countries rule of law works to a degree (it's not perfect, but its better than at any point in the past.)

But on the international stage it's still pretty much that countries with the biggest sticks get their way. Most of the big countries regularly bully smaller ones, and there is little small countries can do, except to maybe appeal to big countries population in hopes they will restrain their own government.

Unless we get some kind of global government that has it's own teeth (army/police) this wont change.

But UN is still useful.

wicharek|4 years ago

The person is said to be an "expert is cyber security", however, his arguments go way beyond his area of expertise. In fact they barely touch cyber security at all. He might end up being right of course (like anyone else). But at the moment his reasoning is a mere speculation of a person, who is maybe marginally better informed than an average commentator on the matter.

antifa|4 years ago

Doesn't matter if he's right, we just need to run the headlines and continue overfunding the military!

mercy_dude|4 years ago

How much of this is Washington’s drumming for defence contractors to get rich? And if Russia does invade Ukraine, why do we care? Specifically as a US citizen how does it affect me? Honest question. I either don’t understand geopolitics or there is something seriously wrong with our government and media trying to get us into pointless conflict.

sschueller|4 years ago

It's about nordstream 2. The US doesn't want it to be finished and I am quite sure it will end up as part of new sanctions against Russia after a small incident on the border.

I agree with you, having the US in play and the US president negotiating is out of place.

Imagine the US was building up troops at the Mexican border and Russia was objecting saying the US will invade Tijuana. They have done it before with New Mexico. Putin would be meeting with the US president instead of the Mexican president. At the same time Germany would be objecting to the new pipeline Mexico is building to Canada and even have people in the parlement trying to force a vote on it (some people in the US congress wanted to vote on nordstream 2, wtf)

zola|4 years ago

If it does happen, whatever the result will be, it'll be a part of your next presidential election.

_abox|4 years ago

Crowdstrike is one the best and most expensive EDR systems on the market. I doubt he'd put their name in jeopardy with misinformation.

Personally as a European I wouldn't mind if Eastern Ukraine (Donbas in particular) rejoins Russia. The people in the region sure want it, and that's what freedom is about, making your own choices. If they don't it'll be an unstable area of insurgency for decades anyway. It's been a warzone for years.

However an invasion would cause instability in itself. It would increase tensions and cause NATO to build up forces. I hope they come to a diplomatic solution but I agree that Russia's public demand are completely ridiculous and designed to fail.

I don't really understand why they view us and NATO as such a threat. We'd never invade Russia.. Nobody would ever want to. And Ukraine and Azerbaijan etc they allowed to separate years ago. It was their own choice.

disabled|4 years ago

This is obvious. Plus, Russia announced in the past 1-2 days that it was going to legalise mass graves. See Radio Free Europe publication: https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-mass-burials-regulations/3161...

In recent history (past 30 years), the vast majority of usage cases for mass graves pretty much have been for genocide.

Pay attention people and use your critical thinking skills. Stay off of social media: Russian propaganda is making claims that this is for COVID-19 which is pure BS!

In addition to this RT (Russia Today) along with Sputnik News apps need to be removed from app stores!

null4bl3|4 years ago

Radio Free Europe is a CIA funded propaganda outlet. No different than RT.

D-Coder|4 years ago

This is scary. What has dissuaded Putin from this kind of thing in the past (if anything)?

Reichhardt|4 years ago

A more confident America and Europe.

Keep in mind that Russia has a history of corrupting Western politicians, on a strategic and multi-decade basis, for example Gerhard Shroder, ex-Chancellor of Germany. He initiated the nuclear shutdown, and now serves as Chairman of Rosneft:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/gerhard-schr%C3...

The message to Europe is presumably: intervene in Ukraine this time, and we'll completely shut off your Winter gas.

a0-prw|4 years ago

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