> "With their lives, blood and tears, the young people in Hong Kong have demonstrated for us that one country, two systems is not feasible," Tsai said.
The saga of Hong Kong is so sad. They didn't take their freedom for granted, they struggled mightily, but ultimately they have been crushed.
The lesson for Taiwan could not be more stark. I can see why Tsai said this, and why she has received such support from the Taiwanese people in response.
It is hard to stand up to the CCP. If an individual with Chinese ties did so on a forum such as HN, doubtless they would be reported by omnipresent loyalists monitoring these exchanges, just as the students were at various US universities.
The game is asymmetric. Hongkonger cannot fight back with all guns with chinese hands. Look at many countries and firms (say intel lately), Taiwan is still in danger as we are not sure any real consequences once the Dist settled down. And how many insiders are there. In Taiwan.
The point of PRC subsuming HK now is have ample time to cultivate new generations of HKers sympathetic to One Country before 2049 as exemplar for One Country Two Systems. The previous generation under UK education was always going to be tainted. Identity politics today is not going to be the same as that generations from now. The countercurrent is Tsai trying to manifest a strong, independant TW identity. The cultural clash will be in 20 years when those TWers look at HKers who will remain privileged and prosperous, but with a democratic facade - basically Singaporeans - and wonder if that life is better than war once the current charade that US can defend TW collapses. And more significantly, once PRC develops military capabilities to stalemate US both MAD and conventionally. Even then PRC will probably have to concede with some sort of satrap / vassal status. 1C2S doesn't have to be "feasible", it just has to be unambiguously better than the alternative, which is a matter of eroding US deterrence.
"Technocrat" doesn't necessarily imply "technologist". It's like the more colloquial "wonk", i.e. someone who's more interested in the minutiae of policy rather than party affiliation or personal aggrandizement.
Offtopic: dear god that article is a design trainwreck. I don't think I've ever been more thankful for Firefox's reader view.
It is interesting how long a nearby territory/country can 'Stand up to China'
When you look at _countries_ (not even territories!) that have tried to 'stand up' to the USA, you only see a trail of immiseration and coup d'état. They don't even have to be _that_ close to us geographically, like Nicaragua or Chile. Cuba is the closest to a success story, and look at their economic indicators. https://tradingeconomics.com/cuba/gdp-per-capita-ppp
Taiwan (ROC) has been a separate country on the doorstep of China (PRC) for more than 70 years. This status quo could certainly continue another 70 years. This status quo could even outlast the PRC government.
I think the conclusion you should draw from this is the obvious one: China is not all powerful.
Superpower (from Google):
A powerful and influential nation, especially a nuclear power that dominates its allies or client states in an international power bloc.
> I don't know what conclusion to draw from this, but it's just wild to me that China is a superpower, and not only has Taiwan failed to have a revolution, but they're a financial success.
It would seem that China doesn’t meet the definition of a superpower, but I think we should all be very wary of any nation or individual who seeks power over others. Those who seek power are those we don’t want to have it.
I’m not sure it’s a valid comparison, because no other country is even remotely comparable in aggressiveness with USA. What if you compared with eg India instead?
The Taiwanese leader is hardly "standing up" to China. China's calculus of attacking Taiwan is probably a more global in scale: for example US submarines can end the maritime traffic in South China Sea completely at any given point.
SCS is not conducive to submarine operations, which is why China wants to monopolize it so badly. Otherwise, they are completely hemmed in by Korea, Russia, Japan, Taiwan. Unfettered sea access for trade or military reasons is seen as very important, right now it is easy to cut China off (and Russia is still considered a frenemy despite how relations have improved in the last 20 years).
Ms. Tsai is a skillful politician. Her success primarily lies on the adoption and the adept use of identity politics in Taiwan.
Despite a long history of national linkage with mainland China, Taiwan, under the colonization and brutal cultural and economic transformation by Japan invasion in the early 20 century till the end of WWII, have gone through a heart breaking separation from the homeland.
Ms. Tsai, just like her mentor, Mr. Lee Teng-hui are heavily influenced by liberal Democratic political ideology, and refined that with a modern form that is closer to western worlds. Mr. Lee Teng-hui represents a more Japanese heritage. And because of his disillusioned passion for communism, Lee had been a communist, and got bullied by KMT after the retreat.
Ms. Tsai led a whirlwind of political ascension through labeling "本省人” “外省人” political identities. Where she also mastered the online propaganda toolings eg the 1450 army (https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%B6%B2%E7%B5%A1%E6%89%93%...). Mrs. Tsai's domestic policy heavily rely on trade economic value for political ties like importing US pork with additive that are known to have harm to human https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%B6%B2%E7%B5%A1%E6%89%93%...
And cultivation of national pride to distance the Taiwan island from mainland, and make the island more prestigious and similar to a national body. Like the so-called "advanced vaccine" by Taiwan's own Rd center https://www.dw.com/zh/%E5%8F%B0%E6%B9%BE%E5%BC%80%E6%89%93%E... these vaccines are rushed to public without adequate testing, and caused higher than usual death.
Ms. Tsai obviously has no adherence to the international law that recognize Taiwan as a part of China. And many Taiwan politicians are fearful of joining China for historical reasons. They even rejected Jiang Zeming's offer to retain it's own military and civil government, by just recognizing formally the CCP led central government, literally a federated nation.
Unfortunately, Taiwan's cultural linkage to China is weak. And the mainland is gearing towards a coercive reunification in some form that is appropriate to China's economic and political consideration. I.e., If China continue to grow and surpass US in all major aspects of national strength, Taiwan can keep this state indefinitely, as China does not really care that much when it becomes a more powerful US. But US won't allow that, global hegemony is a zero sum game, the loss of that status will destroy US financial industry, for an example of the consequence. And Taiwan for her self proclaimed high vision of independence, is heading into a dead end. As a weakening China will be more hostile to the island, Taiwan, in its own pursuit of some potlical value, will bring ruin to the island, probably bundled with significant damage to the mainland. Meanwhile, US would righteously declare the victory of democracy, and say nothing about the human suffering in the conflict, and exploit the economic loot afterwards.
In the end, I'll support the growth of China in all aspects of national power. Hopefully a better version of US can born from that. I'll do my best to influence the Western audience about the more complicated aspect of Taiwan issue, to broaden their view about alternatives than just the black and white democracy vs xxxx (authoritarian dictatorship swap any of your favorite words on China).
The US led world order is simply not going to sustain, everyone needs to understand not only US cannot make an example of the right and good, US no longer have the means other than destruction in shaping other nations' fate.
> In the end, I'll support the growth of China in all aspects of national power.
If you're a Citizen of the Mainland China, then I'll support your right to support your nation and its current CCP Government, even if I disagree with it.
However, if you're a resident/citizen of a Western nation and earning your livelihood there, I'll encourage you to take another look at the whole situation and decide for yourself if CCP model and its behavior towards other nations and even its own minorities is really the right model for any country, let alone China.
The constant onslaught of US "news" drumming up war on China and Russia is very scary. The production value of this site and the detail of its design are a problem. Reuters is a problem. This is indeed war propaganda. I do think the United States is on the offensive in this "cold war", and they they want it to be hot. United States foreign policy has historically been, let's say, less than helpful. I really do not believe China is a threat to the world.
What exactly is there to stand up to? Why not cooperate with China for mutual good? I believe Chinese leadership when they say all they want is a more multilateral world. US simply can't stop being world hegemon. Looking at the way people post both on this site and on Reddit about China, it's all same old Yellow Peril racism if you ask me. Really getting sick and tired of everyone just uncritically taking in US war propaganda and jumping on the war wagon.
I would love to be able to work with the people of China and Russia as you’re suggesting, I think the great mass of people in all these countries would, but you’re blurring the populations of the countries and the strategic plotting of the national leaders. I wonder if you might be making the terrible mistake that almost all of us seem to make, of seeing your country from the intimate perspective of family, friends and ordinary people living their lives, and others through the words and actions of national politicians. I think the leaders of all of these countries are threats to the world, and not because they necessarily have plans of expanding their empire across the globe, but because their primary goal is to hold power in their own country which requires theatre to the populace and flows of wealth to their core supporters. China doesn’t need to retake Taiwan, there are already Chinese people there doing just fine, Russia doesn’t need to threaten Ukraine, US doesn’t need its military practically everywhere, but the leaders in each of those countries can’t back down on any of those things or their person hold on power is over
> I believe Chinese leadership when they say all they want is a more multilateral world.
They say but don't do it. China's behaviour towards Canada, Lithuania and most of Eastern Asia is anything but multilateral. It is plain and simple imperialism.
It's also fair to push back on war hungry narratives, it is equally as important to understand all scenarios. Nobody puts this better than Gen. Mark Milley: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vSBN5xBC1L4
I'm not old enough to read mainstream news during the 80s, but learnt that there was a period of anti-Japanese fear mongering due to Japan's rising economy. It caused riots, burning of japanese products, and street violence to people who looked like Japanese.
I'm not too worried about war between nuclear powers, but I do fear for Chinese and Chinese-looking people living in the west.
US isn't technically drumming up war on China and Russia; they are promoting war to the last Ukrainian against Russia, and probably the last Taiwanese against China. A difference, but probably enough to help US hitch a long as superpower couple of decades if either of these events take place.
Direct confrontation between Russia, China vs. US is not even in the question. US couldn't defeat couple of goat herders and they're going to level up to S-tier opponents? I wouldn't even bet on US against Venezuela or Iran at this point.
[+] [-] rectang|4 years ago|reply
The saga of Hong Kong is so sad. They didn't take their freedom for granted, they struggled mightily, but ultimately they have been crushed.
The lesson for Taiwan could not be more stark. I can see why Tsai said this, and why she has received such support from the Taiwanese people in response.
It is hard to stand up to the CCP. If an individual with Chinese ties did so on a forum such as HN, doubtless they would be reported by omnipresent loyalists monitoring these exchanges, just as the students were at various US universities.
https://www.propublica.org/article/even-on-us-campuses-china...
[+] [-] ssss11|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ngcc_hk|4 years ago|reply
Just … we can hope in a not so hopeful scenario.
[+] [-] dirtyid|4 years ago|reply
Too early to tell.
The point of PRC subsuming HK now is have ample time to cultivate new generations of HKers sympathetic to One Country before 2049 as exemplar for One Country Two Systems. The previous generation under UK education was always going to be tainted. Identity politics today is not going to be the same as that generations from now. The countercurrent is Tsai trying to manifest a strong, independant TW identity. The cultural clash will be in 20 years when those TWers look at HKers who will remain privileged and prosperous, but with a democratic facade - basically Singaporeans - and wonder if that life is better than war once the current charade that US can defend TW collapses. And more significantly, once PRC develops military capabilities to stalemate US both MAD and conventionally. Even then PRC will probably have to concede with some sort of satrap / vassal status. 1C2S doesn't have to be "feasible", it just has to be unambiguously better than the alternative, which is a matter of eroding US deterrence.
[+] [-] moogleii|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mrec|4 years ago|reply
Offtopic: dear god that article is a design trainwreck. I don't think I've ever been more thankful for Firefox's reader view.
[+] [-] droopyEyelids|4 years ago|reply
When you look at _countries_ (not even territories!) that have tried to 'stand up' to the USA, you only see a trail of immiseration and coup d'état. They don't even have to be _that_ close to us geographically, like Nicaragua or Chile. Cuba is the closest to a success story, and look at their economic indicators. https://tradingeconomics.com/cuba/gdp-per-capita-ppp
I don't know what conclusion to draw from this, but it's just wild to me that China is a superpower, and not only has Taiwan failed to have a revolution, but they're a financial success. https://statisticstimes.com/economy/country/taiwan-gdp-per-c...
[+] [-] CogitoCogito|4 years ago|reply
I think the conclusion you should draw from this is the obvious one: China is not all powerful.
[+] [-] zepto|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] whodunnit|4 years ago|reply
> I don't know what conclusion to draw from this, but it's just wild to me that China is a superpower, and not only has Taiwan failed to have a revolution, but they're a financial success.
It would seem that China doesn’t meet the definition of a superpower, but I think we should all be very wary of any nation or individual who seeks power over others. Those who seek power are those we don’t want to have it.
[+] [-] trynumber9|4 years ago|reply
How telling.
[+] [-] kube-system|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rectang|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] trasz|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] akimball|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] natded|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] seanmcdirmid|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] known|4 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] jetsetgo|4 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] star-trek-fleet|4 years ago|reply
Despite a long history of national linkage with mainland China, Taiwan, under the colonization and brutal cultural and economic transformation by Japan invasion in the early 20 century till the end of WWII, have gone through a heart breaking separation from the homeland.
Ms. Tsai, just like her mentor, Mr. Lee Teng-hui are heavily influenced by liberal Democratic political ideology, and refined that with a modern form that is closer to western worlds. Mr. Lee Teng-hui represents a more Japanese heritage. And because of his disillusioned passion for communism, Lee had been a communist, and got bullied by KMT after the retreat.
Ms. Tsai led a whirlwind of political ascension through labeling "本省人” “外省人” political identities. Where she also mastered the online propaganda toolings eg the 1450 army (https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%B6%B2%E7%B5%A1%E6%89%93%...). Mrs. Tsai's domestic policy heavily rely on trade economic value for political ties like importing US pork with additive that are known to have harm to human https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%B6%B2%E7%B5%A1%E6%89%93%... And cultivation of national pride to distance the Taiwan island from mainland, and make the island more prestigious and similar to a national body. Like the so-called "advanced vaccine" by Taiwan's own Rd center https://www.dw.com/zh/%E5%8F%B0%E6%B9%BE%E5%BC%80%E6%89%93%E... these vaccines are rushed to public without adequate testing, and caused higher than usual death.
Ms. Tsai obviously has no adherence to the international law that recognize Taiwan as a part of China. And many Taiwan politicians are fearful of joining China for historical reasons. They even rejected Jiang Zeming's offer to retain it's own military and civil government, by just recognizing formally the CCP led central government, literally a federated nation.
Unfortunately, Taiwan's cultural linkage to China is weak. And the mainland is gearing towards a coercive reunification in some form that is appropriate to China's economic and political consideration. I.e., If China continue to grow and surpass US in all major aspects of national strength, Taiwan can keep this state indefinitely, as China does not really care that much when it becomes a more powerful US. But US won't allow that, global hegemony is a zero sum game, the loss of that status will destroy US financial industry, for an example of the consequence. And Taiwan for her self proclaimed high vision of independence, is heading into a dead end. As a weakening China will be more hostile to the island, Taiwan, in its own pursuit of some potlical value, will bring ruin to the island, probably bundled with significant damage to the mainland. Meanwhile, US would righteously declare the victory of democracy, and say nothing about the human suffering in the conflict, and exploit the economic loot afterwards.
In the end, I'll support the growth of China in all aspects of national power. Hopefully a better version of US can born from that. I'll do my best to influence the Western audience about the more complicated aspect of Taiwan issue, to broaden their view about alternatives than just the black and white democracy vs xxxx (authoritarian dictatorship swap any of your favorite words on China).
The US led world order is simply not going to sustain, everyone needs to understand not only US cannot make an example of the right and good, US no longer have the means other than destruction in shaping other nations' fate.
[+] [-] yumraj|4 years ago|reply
If you're a Citizen of the Mainland China, then I'll support your right to support your nation and its current CCP Government, even if I disagree with it.
However, if you're a resident/citizen of a Western nation and earning your livelihood there, I'll encourage you to take another look at the whole situation and decide for yourself if CCP model and its behavior towards other nations and even its own minorities is really the right model for any country, let alone China.
[+] [-] thoughtstheseus|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] diego_moita|4 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] dh5|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mrobot|4 years ago|reply
What exactly is there to stand up to? Why not cooperate with China for mutual good? I believe Chinese leadership when they say all they want is a more multilateral world. US simply can't stop being world hegemon. Looking at the way people post both on this site and on Reddit about China, it's all same old Yellow Peril racism if you ask me. Really getting sick and tired of everyone just uncritically taking in US war propaganda and jumping on the war wagon.
[+] [-] monkeycantype|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] yumraj|4 years ago|reply
Tibetans, Uighars, HKers and citizens of almost all the countries that share a land or sea border with China will disagree with you.
And so will all the countries, such as Lithuania, and private companies who have been forced to toe CCP line.
I can keep going on…
[+] [-] jonnybgood|4 years ago|reply
China is attacking Lithuania economically for opening a Taiwanese Representative Office. China is not cooperating for mutual good.
[+] [-] zepto|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] diego_moita|4 years ago|reply
They say but don't do it. China's behaviour towards Canada, Lithuania and most of Eastern Asia is anything but multilateral. It is plain and simple imperialism.
[+] [-] systemvoltage|4 years ago|reply
It's also fair to push back on war hungry narratives, it is equally as important to understand all scenarios. Nobody puts this better than Gen. Mark Milley: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vSBN5xBC1L4
[+] [-] mcswell|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rectang|4 years ago|reply
Any independent news organization is a problem for the CCP.
[+] [-] analyst74|4 years ago|reply
I'm not too worried about war between nuclear powers, but I do fear for Chinese and Chinese-looking people living in the west.
[+] [-] philsnow|4 years ago|reply
This works until it doesn't. "American exceptionalism" is not unique to Americans.
[+] [-] rkk3|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] CountSessine|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] natded|4 years ago|reply
Direct confrontation between Russia, China vs. US is not even in the question. US couldn't defeat couple of goat herders and they're going to level up to S-tier opponents? I wouldn't even bet on US against Venezuela or Iran at this point.
[+] [-] morpheos137|4 years ago|reply