New Temperature Records for the UK

[throwaway5752]

I see people talking about weather getting unpredictable.

This was predictable, and was predicted: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/. The technical summary is 160 pages and should be required reading for anyone over the age of 13: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6.... The Paris Agreement, for all its problems, tries to keep increase below 1.5 C over pre-industrial. We are locked in for 20-30 more years of increases like this if we stop emitting net CO2 in 5 years, best case. This is the beginning of global warming, it will be getting worse. I plan on retiring from software soon to devote the rest of my life to technical and political work to keep Earth habitable for subsequent generations while retaining the knowledge and technological progress made possible from the carbon age. Too many people in software - just my experience, and definitely not limited to software - have no concept of the orders of magnitude of energy involved and unreasonable expectations of other engineering fields to solve this problem. I hope more people will join me.

[Yuioup]

How do you 'retire on software'. I'm a software engineer and I have nowhere near enough savings for retirement, not even close.

[wolverine876]

> I plan on retiring from software soon to devote the rest of my life to technical and political work to keep Earth habitable for subsequent generations

That is fantastic and inspiring. I'm shifting my life around in order to focus on similar priorities.

For people who think it is extreme, this is my perspective: Previous generations built 99% of what we have - the political system (freedom, democracy, peace, better justice), the economy, the knowledge, arts and culture, the endless social goods (school, healthcare, FOSS, etc.), the technology. How are we building on that for the next? Environmental catastrophe? Political chaos and social distrust? Online manipulation, cryptocurrency scams, and lulz? So far, IMHO we are mostly liquidating, as vulture capitalists, that largess by our predecessors - by their hard work, their forward thinking to build a 'More Perfect Union', and their sacrifices:

Many sacrificed everything. Some saw nothing more of life than high school, boot camp, and a bullet. Too grim? Too dramatic? Too serious? That's reality; it's too late in the day, in our myriad crises, to hold back so that it's not too challenging or upsetting. I'm not saying everyone should do what I do (certainly not - they should figure out what is right for them, as individuals), but I think we all have very serious obligations. We have the free choice to do good or bad; the good news is, the results are up to us.

[notreallyserio]

What do you plan to do, specifically? I hope to soft-retire soon, meaning switch to another lower-paying kob or volunteering, but I'm not exactly sure what I want to do.

[b_emery]

Bill Gate's book has a good summary of the technical challenges and the scientific and engineering needs. It's an easy read and I highly suggest it.

[joebillingsley]

I'm interested. Have you found anyone/an area who needs software developers?

[th9283749238]

From talking to my (degree-holding) colleagues, they seem to think that everything will be well, and no amount of evidence would convince them otherwise. Felt like I was talking to antivaxxers.

The IPCC report suggests first-world citizens reduce their energy footprint by 80% if we are to have even a remote chance of keeping things under control. Yet everybody is now making plans where to travel next when the pandemic becomes milder.

Meanwhile Germany closed half its nuclear reactors yesterday and people were cheering.

Are you sure you want to save this version of humanity?

[spywaregorilla]

Climate change does make the weather less predictable, as in higher variance on things like storms. So... they're probably not disagreeing with you.

[mempko]

I recommend people watch Paul Beckwith who does a fantastic job explaining what he calls The Climate Casino.

https://m.youtube.com/user/PaulHBeckwith

[f311a]

Unfortunately, educating people is very hard and covid-19 clearly shows it.

[cheschire]

I suspect people tend to mean unstable when they say unpredictable. Not that they think science is unable to see what’s happening.

[kerneloftruth]

I'm genuinely curious: does "technical and political work to keep Earth habitable for subsequent generations" include efforts to reduce the earth's population size? I ask this because sometimes such efforts fail to address the root cause, often deliberately.

[jonp888]

I do, I just don't see any pointles in fighting a hopeless war that is already lost.

[lordnacho]

This is good if you pay for energy in the UK. Prices have shot up recently, and there are fears that a lot of people will get surprised if the winter is chilly. Of course we've yet to see how it plays out.

Friends on mine in the energy business think it could get really really bad if it's cold.

[samwillis]

I think you are right, there is certainly a lot of people here hoping for a very mild winter. Hopefully the relief from rising energy prices this winter doesn’t distract from the bigger picture of climate change, but we must also not be dismissive of those in need.

There are so many people in the UK who have to make difficult choices each winter about heating their house or spending elsewhere. It’s estimated to be 1 in 10 households (3m people)[0]. So we can take a small amount of comfort that in the short term that this is help for them, but we must as a society address both these problems (income inequality and climate change)

0: https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2021/nov/25/one-in-10-uk...

[dijit]

Much in the same way that burning down your house is a comfort for those who cannot afford their gas bill?

[jacquesm]

NL as well, one record after another is broken. Today I saw some very confused wasps and bees flying around, in 15 degree Celsius weather.

[hardlianotion]

Same here in France. Chased a bumblebee out of my living room and any number of confused flies. The weather has gone from unusually deep and early snow to scenes resembling later spring. Similarly confused weather patterns in West Africa in the last few years - the regular weather pattern of my youth seems to be breaking down into something altogether less reliable and worrying.

[jfk13]

Here (in the UK) we went for a walk this afternoon, and I noticed primroses in flower... at least a couple months too early.

I guess they're hoping some confused bees will come along...

[Scoundreller]

-20C in Thunder Bay if you’re ever thinking about coming back. And that’s the high!

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/weather/ontario/thunder...

[wazoox]

This is very menacing, more than could seem at first glance. All sort of crops could bloom much too soon, and be destroyed at the next cold event. And every summer from now on, we'll be under the menace of an extreme hot event destroying major cereal crops around the world. Global food shortage could be around the corner every year, forever. Combine that with a looming fossil fuel supply crunch, and we're on the verge of civilisational collapse, just like that.

[irthomasthomas]

Don't worry, this is roughly the opposite of what has been observed. The growing seasons are getting longer, the earth is greening. [0]

And looking back at previous warm periods it looks like things mostly got better during warm ages and nose dived during the cold. https://imgr.search.brave.com/v3hRyzU6Mm1ShpkX2Z4SEYasQRtDD-...

[0] Global Greening

Greening of the globe and its drivers - Nature 2016 https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3004 "Satellite records from 1982–2009 show a persistent and widespread increase of leaf area (greening) over 25% to 50% of the global vegetated area, whereas less than 4% of the globe shows decreasing leaf area (browning). Ecosystem models suggest that CO2 fertilisation effects explain 70% of the observed greening trend, followed by nitrogen deposition (9%), climate change (8%) and land cover change (4%)."

Elevated CO2 as a driver of global dryland greening - Nature 2016 https://www.nature.com/articles/srep20716 "Recent regional scale analyses using satellite based vegetation indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), have found extensive areas of “greening” in dryland areas of the Mediterranean, the Sahel, the Middle East and Northern China, as well as greening trends in Mongolia and South America. More recently, a global synthesis from 1982-2007 showed an overall “greening-up” trend over the Sahel belt, Mediterranean basin, China-Mongolia region and the drylands of South America."

Global Greening Is Firm, Drivers Are Mixed - Harvard 2014 http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.B31A0515K "Evidence for global greening is converging, asserting an increase in CO2 uptake and biomass of the terrestrial biosphere. Global greening refers to global net increases in the area of green canopy, stocks of carbon, and the duration of the growing season. The growing seasons in general have prolonged while the stock of biomass carbon has increased and the rate of deforestation has decelerated. Evidence for these trends comes from firm empirical data obtained through atmospheric CO2 observations, remote sensing, forest inventories and land use statistics."

Rise in CO2 has 'greened Planet Earth' http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-36130346 Prof Judith Curry, the former chair of Earth and atmospheric sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology, added: "It is inappropriate to dismiss the arguments of the so-called contrarians, since their disagreement with the consensus reflects conflicts of values and a preference for the empirical (i.e. what has been observed) versus the hypothetical (i.e. what is projected from climate models)

[toun]

French Brittany, was sunbathing this morning at 10:00 at 15°C on the beach, with bees flying around. These are summer temperatures, and even in summer it's usually colder than that at this time of the day. Felt completely unreal.

[wedn3sday]

Alternative reading: this is the coldest winter in the next century.

[jacquesm]

That has a fairly high probability of being true. And it's very scary if true.

[s_dev]

It was 16 Celcius in Ireland yesterday. I have my window wide open in the middle of winter to cool the apartment. I can appreciate climate != weather. However it is a very odd warming event.

[teh_klev]

I had my patio doors open at midnight last night in rural Perthshire and was just wearing a t-shirt (and jeans). I thought I had "the fever", but upon checking the met forecast I was gobsmacked to see the temperature at around 15C. Yet only two days before I was scraping ice off of the car.

[breakyerself]

Record high temps outnumber record lows by 2:1. The planet is hotter than its been in 100,000 years. Co2 levels are higher than they've been in 800,000 years. 4 Hiroshima bombs per second worth of extra heat energy are being trapped in the climate system by the co2 we've emitted. The oceans are 25% more acidic because of how much of our co2 has been absorbed by the oceans. Absolute humidity has increased 7% because a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture and warmer oceans evaporate more readily.

[jmugan]

Yep, Austin just had the warmest December on record. About 12 degrees F above "normal." https://www.kvue.com/article/weather/december-2021-warmest-o....

[b_emery]

For those of us used to degrees F, keep this in mind:

  10 C ~= 50 F

  20 C ~= 68 F

  30 C ~= 86 F

So 15 C is about 59 degrees F.

[beebeepka]

I don't have a habit of checking temperature but felt like 15 degree here on Bulgaria. Spent most of the day outside and there were all kinds of insects flying around.

Guess the summer is going to suck. Either too hot or too cold.

[polotics]

My bet is this will be the next 2003, after western Canada last year, mainland Europe may well be due for the next roast.

[123pie123]

tongue in cheek uk weather seasons (but close to the truth)

https://imgur.com/gallery/1Brt04C

I think there should be an extra winter in there after summer begins

[NotVerstappen]

In my childhood I remember (perhaps overly- optimistically) having distinct seasons and in particular crisp, snowy winters. The combination of climate change and moving west of the Pennines is really shit.

[swarnie]

I'm starting to think these global warming chaps have a point you know....

[wedn3sday]

An alternate reading: this is the coldest winter for the next century.

[subpixel]

A comment that stuck with me during the summer of 2021, when heat domes baked Sweden and Seattle and California and Greece were on fire, was that it was likely the coolest summer of the next decade.

[esarbe]

Central Europe, 10°C - Bees and Wasps, shrubs and bushes are budding.

[Zenst]

Which is a worry as a couple of months left of winter. Also a tendency these days for the colder/snow weather to be in the later part of winter/early spring.

[iqanq]

Given the terrible problems we are having with energy prices, I will interpret this as God laying His hands upon us :P

[mhh__]

As far as I'm aware, the Bible does instruct the faithful Christian to look after god's creation. Considering the zeal of American Christianity, this has apparently been lost on many (i.e. the cold atheists in Europe are doing a better job).

[OtomotO]

To strangle us?

[irrational]

Why? We seem to be doing a great job of punishing ourselves.