FWIW, I joined HN 14 years ago (wow) and there's never been a time in those 14 years that HN wasn't convinced that facebook's demise was just around the corner.
This is true, but the main reason was that people have been predicting this was that young people don’t want to be on a social network with their parents. This social dynamic prediction has played out, and Facebook did the 100% predictable thing that all rich entrenched players do — they bought the smaller competitors, most famously Instagram.
I fully expect them to continue to be able to monetize their user base, and purchase smaller competitors for a while.
The most recent warning flag for me is their rebranding. Announcing a major pivot to center on Occulus (I’m sorry “the metaverse”.), when VR has been nothing more than niche gaming is very weird and troublesome.
On the bright side, Facebook is a giant ossified megacorp. All that’s going to happen is some division is going to get new signage, and every PM is going to update their slide decks to say “metaverse”, and everyone is going to do what they were already doing.
As an ex-employee, Facebook is many things, but ossified it is not. The internal impact/metric-oriented culture means that new bets are encouraged and rewarded, whereas product teams that are keeping it safe will eventually get disbanded.
I joined HN 12 years ago and I don't remember things that way at all. My impression is that it's extremely rare for anyone to claim that FB's demise is imminent, but it seems like it has become more common for HN posters to comment on FB's decline in recent years. ...but you could say the same thing for Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google as well -- it doesn't seem to be FB specific to me.
MySpace died because it became a minority player in a quickly growing landscape, at a time where alternatives were available.
To simplify, if you have captured over 50 percent of the entire english-speaking Internet population, sure you have a huge network effect behind you. But if that population count is multiplied by 100x and your numbers don't grow alongside that, your network effect is not as strong.
My wife was working there at their peak (and left at just the right time—I like to think that their decline was the inevitable result of her departure). They had such high engagement that they had a hard time selling enough ads to fill all the available ad slots.
Including my ex-account period I have been reading HN for 12 years now, while I agree Facebook has always been unpopular on HN. It was since may be 2015 it became extremely one sided. Even the very rare few who speak up with Facebook financial and user growth are all gone. ( Arguably speaking lots of things on HN have become one sided )
There is this phenomenon I witness time and time again, people confuse what they wish to happen; the decline or death of Facebook with any real facts.
It is like saying Apple is doomed for 10 years and yet Apple is now a 3 trillion company.
chrsig|4 years ago
jonathankoren|4 years ago
I fully expect them to continue to be able to monetize their user base, and purchase smaller competitors for a while.
The most recent warning flag for me is their rebranding. Announcing a major pivot to center on Occulus (I’m sorry “the metaverse”.), when VR has been nothing more than niche gaming is very weird and troublesome.
On the bright side, Facebook is a giant ossified megacorp. All that’s going to happen is some division is going to get new signage, and every PM is going to update their slide decks to say “metaverse”, and everyone is going to do what they were already doing.
romanhn|4 years ago
dougmwne|4 years ago
whyenot|4 years ago
throwawayboise|4 years ago
scrollaway|4 years ago
To simplify, if you have captured over 50 percent of the entire english-speaking Internet population, sure you have a huge network effect behind you. But if that population count is multiplied by 100x and your numbers don't grow alongside that, your network effect is not as strong.
dhosek|4 years ago
ksec|4 years ago
There is this phenomenon I witness time and time again, people confuse what they wish to happen; the decline or death of Facebook with any real facts.
It is like saying Apple is doomed for 10 years and yet Apple is now a 3 trillion company.