Even if we transition to a multipolar world order and renewed great power competition, America will still be the strongest and most secure global power. It has hegemony in the western hemisphere through its enforcement of the Monroe Doctrine; it is protected by the two largest oceans; it has historical, linguistic, and cultural ties to two regional powers on both sides of the ocean (UK and Ireland in Europe, Australia and NZ in the Asia Pacific, Five Eyes, etc.); it is by far the leader in soft power (music, movies, TV, technology, English language, etc.); and most importantly, it has the strongest military by far. Despite strategic defeats in the Middle East and South Asia, US officers gained tons of battlefield experience and the ability to test its weaponry. So even if the US now has to deal with a hegemonic challenger in East Asia (China) and more assertive one in Europe (Russia), its geography and demography give it advantages no other great power has.
America will not collapse, it will become less relevant. The multipolar world is going to be more prominent going forward. Even France's Macron is talking about making EU independent of US influence. And with emerging country like India already having a DNA of non-alignment, it looks like the US will have a say in global world order but the influence will be far more limited than what it use to be.
Good, US has been spending unfair share and has been the nanny of the world. One thing I agreed with Trump policy was this inward-looking aspect - no more stupid wars, no more pulling the weight of NATO and no more nation building in ME. Note that these policies were bipartisan - Bushes and Clintons/Obama supported them and spun the military industrial complex slot machine. What Trump did was very much in the stark contrast to the classic liberal/conservative stance of US foreign policy. Essentially a more lucid version of Ron Paul.
The book "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail" by Ray Dalio compares the rise (and decline) of the American "world empire" to prior world empires. The two most recent are the U.K. and the Netherlands.
The same things that are happening now have happened before -- just not in our lifetimes. The history and his analysis is quite instructive.
The book was refreshing in its objectivity, lack of political bias, and clarity of writing. I've given copies to several friends.
It's pretty clear from his analysis and the data that the U.S. is in a decline of global influence.
Ahh the early days of clickbait. I wonder if the author was hoping to stop the demise or just wanted to be able to scream "see I told you so!" as the world burns.
i bet lunch that as soon as the author pressed the publish button they wrote another article under a different name title "Click to find out how that other guy is wrong and America won't collapse in 2025"
>After years of swelling deficits fed by incessant warfare in distant lands, in 2020, as long expected, the U.S. dollar finally loses its special status as the world's reserve currency. Suddenly, the cost of imports soars. Unable to pay for swelling deficits by selling now-devalued Treasury notes abroad, Washington is finally forced to slash its bloated military budget.
It's funny and interesting that the military budget is such a common punching bag. The defense budget is a pretty small percentage of the overall outlays. Yet people continue to act like it's the single line item that is holding America back.
Here's where the American federal government spent money in 2020.
* $1T on unemployment compensation and paycheck protection program
* $1.1T on social security
* $1.2T on medicare and medicaid
* $1T on "other" which includes federal employee retirements and welfare programs
* $900B on non-defense discretionary spending on thing such as housing assistance, transportation, and education.
...and then, finally, we get to defense spending at $700B.
The budget deficit for FY2020 was $3.1T. Maybe the military budget is so high it is causing a ripple in the multiverse that makes arithmetic different in this universe. Maybe if we cut $300B from the military budget in our universe it will even out to $3T because magic.
In 2019 the defense budget would have been #3 on your list, under only Social Security and Medicare + Medicaid. Perhaps using a pandemic year with extra outlays to avoid economic collapse is not the best way to discuss overall government spending.
In typical years the Defense spending is equal to each of the discretionary non-defense spending and "other" mandatory spending which excludes Medicare + Medicaid and Social Security. Medicare + Medicaid and Social Security spending have certainly increased the most and that seems to be inline with the increased spending on health care over the last few decades.
It's also worth noting that the non-defense categories still include defense related spending like veterans' income security, benefits, and services.
> ...and then, finally, we get to defense spending at $700B.
just a small reminder that $700B is less than the bank bailout of 2008/2009 which straddled both a Republican and Democrat president. That's in the top 5 most outrageous things in my lifetime (so far).
Those figures are required expenditures, not budgets. They represent agreements between tax-paying citizens/employees and the government. The military's funding is variable and not required - the Constitution doesn't even support a centralized military. You're equating very different things.
I lol'd at this oil analysis. The author had no idea what technological developments would be widely deployed in just the next couple years after they wrote this
>The author had no idea what technological developments would be widely deployed in just the next couple years after they wrote this
None of the technological developments created since then [2010] are able to mitigate an oil shock of the kind described in the article given their current deployment levels.
Actually, not even any developments that might be created in the next 5-10 years, in the level that they can be applied within the next 15 years would solve such an issue.
...and yet, those developments seem to have had little effect on the geopolitical situation. Everyone who tries to predict the future in this level of detail will have some misses, and it's always a bit too easy to criticize others' predictions. The question is whether their broader conclusions hold up better than mere guesswork, and I'd say this author did pretty well.
This is particularly timely after the Taliban routed the US in Afghanistan in May to August of last year.
An interesting thing here is the central role played by energy in this analysis; this article was before the fracking boom (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil#/media/File:US_Crude_... and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hubbert_Upper-Bound_Peak_..., which shows the US fracking boom, though not the recent decline) and before the last factor of 8 or so decrease in the cost of solar panels made them cheaper than fossil fuels in much of the world. So it predicts Iran and Russia will be "energy kingpins" in 02025, which doesn't really seem to be in the cards.
Maybe China will be an "energy kingpin"—it could cover the Gobi with PV panels and run HVDC, which might be outside the state capacity of countries like Perú, Saudi, and Libya which control vast desert territories on paper. But, so far, despite installing more PV capacity than the entire rest of the world, China's PV capacity factor is a disappointing 13%, compared to 29% in California, so it's apparently making terrible choices about where to site its solar farms. (Still better than the 10% you get in Germany or the Netherlands.)
For the last 2500 years the "world's reserve currency" has been gold, except for the last 77 or so. That could easily happen again. Bitcoin was kind of gunning for that position, but China's thoroughgoing rejection of it forecloses that possibility for at least a generation, and Bitcoin could easily cease to exist in that time.
Although the knowledge of this article's author about computer security seems to come from Hollywood, the computer security situation is indeed extremely grave, and as more and more things become digital, any state that doesn't take it seriously and take effective measures to improve the situation is likely to be destroyed. Presently, that means every state in the world.
It's true that when financial and military collapse comes, they are likely to come very quickly.
I'm still a little bit confident in the system, though.
Because in 2026, Dem will win back both congress and senate, it's just a normal pattern. Voters never liked any party owns it all.
Two parties keep playing this along the way, except each game are so close these days, it's tiring and boring and hard to advance any agenda when either one is in control.
The system is getting close to deadlock when both sides no longer honor the game rule: "debate before the election, work together after it and just wait for your next turn". Instead it's now about fighting every day, it does not matter who won the election anymore. The end result?
"Nothing Got Done(tm)"
In that sense, it's not because China is doing better, it's because US's internal problem stops itself, and may bring it down.
> the GOP will establish an autocracy for decades.
do you just mean win elections for decades? That i can sort of believe (or at least comprehend), but wholesale destruction of Democracy? To me, that means canceling elections and the president declaring themself absolute power for life which i just don't see happening. I would expect a military coup before that since the military swears allegiance to the constitution first and then civilian leadership next.
If that happens, the democrats only have themselves to blame at this point. Biden came in with a 60+% approval rating, now he is in the high 20s / low 30s.
I actually think it's more likely that a third party like Andrew Yangs Forward Party emerges and wins an election. A lot of people are sick of two options, and feel alienated in by their own party (both sides)
Not sure why you think Ron desantis qualifies as an authoritarian. Also you admit the GOP will win the elections and Biden is a loser. Sounds pretty democratic. Predicting that the republican majority will inevitably establish an autocracy is birther level Dem propaganda. You shouldn't watch MSNBC.
I believed it until China started scoring own goals kneecapping their tech industry and their best and brightest kept coming to the West... Someday though, my VEMAX investments will look like a good decision.
One of America's secret sauces is that everyone in the world is welcome to defect from their home regime and come here. Hell, there's even a chance we'll make your children our leaders (Obama and Harris for example). And you personally have a chance to start a business and become a billionaire or advance up the corporate ladder to CEO of existing giants.
The inverse is not true.
The best and brightest Americans (regardless of race) can never effectively defect to China. Maybe if you're ethnically Han Chinese your children will have a chance to be fully integrated and accepted, but definitely not if you're any other race.
The gravity of best and brightest migration is still one way into the American singularity.
Why is the Hacker News title editorialized? I believe the convention is to use the original title of the linked article. Removing the "how" from the sentence changes the tone by quite a margin.
America won't collapse alone, the whole Western block will collapse with it, our civilization already died, the moment we decided stock market is more important than the education and health of our people
Greed, gluttony, spread of cancerous culture, lack of social justice and many more
[+] [-] JavaBatman|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] phekunde|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] systemvoltage|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] davideous|4 years ago|reply
The same things that are happening now have happened before -- just not in our lifetimes. The history and his analysis is quite instructive.
The book was refreshing in its objectivity, lack of political bias, and clarity of writing. I've given copies to several friends.
It's pretty clear from his analysis and the data that the U.S. is in a decline of global influence.
https://www.amazon.com/Changing-World-Order-Nations-Succeed/...
[+] [-] S_A_P|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] chasd00|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] parkingrift|4 years ago|reply
It's funny and interesting that the military budget is such a common punching bag. The defense budget is a pretty small percentage of the overall outlays. Yet people continue to act like it's the single line item that is holding America back.
Here's where the American federal government spent money in 2020.
* $1T on unemployment compensation and paycheck protection program
* $1.1T on social security
* $1.2T on medicare and medicaid
* $1T on "other" which includes federal employee retirements and welfare programs
* $900B on non-defense discretionary spending on thing such as housing assistance, transportation, and education.
...and then, finally, we get to defense spending at $700B.
The budget deficit for FY2020 was $3.1T. Maybe the military budget is so high it is causing a ripple in the multiverse that makes arithmetic different in this universe. Maybe if we cut $300B from the military budget in our universe it will even out to $3T because magic.
[+] [-] bjtitus|4 years ago|reply
In typical years the Defense spending is equal to each of the discretionary non-defense spending and "other" mandatory spending which excludes Medicare + Medicaid and Social Security. Medicare + Medicaid and Social Security spending have certainly increased the most and that seems to be inline with the increased spending on health care over the last few decades.
It's also worth noting that the non-defense categories still include defense related spending like veterans' income security, benefits, and services.
[+] [-] TYPE_FASTER|4 years ago|reply
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55343 - 2018
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56325 - 2019
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57171 - 2020
[+] [-] chasd00|4 years ago|reply
just a small reminder that $700B is less than the bank bailout of 2008/2009 which straddled both a Republican and Democrat president. That's in the top 5 most outrageous things in my lifetime (so far).
[+] [-] realce|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] starwind|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] coldtea|4 years ago|reply
You really shouldn't tho.
>The author had no idea what technological developments would be widely deployed in just the next couple years after they wrote this
None of the technological developments created since then [2010] are able to mitigate an oil shock of the kind described in the article given their current deployment levels.
Actually, not even any developments that might be created in the next 5-10 years, in the level that they can be applied within the next 15 years would solve such an issue.
[+] [-] notacoward|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kragen|4 years ago|reply
An interesting thing here is the central role played by energy in this analysis; this article was before the fracking boom (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil#/media/File:US_Crude_... and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hubbert_Upper-Bound_Peak_..., which shows the US fracking boom, though not the recent decline) and before the last factor of 8 or so decrease in the cost of solar panels made them cheaper than fossil fuels in much of the world. So it predicts Iran and Russia will be "energy kingpins" in 02025, which doesn't really seem to be in the cards.
Maybe China will be an "energy kingpin"—it could cover the Gobi with PV panels and run HVDC, which might be outside the state capacity of countries like Perú, Saudi, and Libya which control vast desert territories on paper. But, so far, despite installing more PV capacity than the entire rest of the world, China's PV capacity factor is a disappointing 13%, compared to 29% in California, so it's apparently making terrible choices about where to site its solar farms. (Still better than the 10% you get in Germany or the Netherlands.)
For the last 2500 years the "world's reserve currency" has been gold, except for the last 77 or so. That could easily happen again. Bitcoin was kind of gunning for that position, but China's thoroughgoing rejection of it forecloses that possibility for at least a generation, and Bitcoin could easily cease to exist in that time.
Although the knowledge of this article's author about computer security seems to come from Hollywood, the computer security situation is indeed extremely grave, and as more and more things become digital, any state that doesn't take it seriously and take effective measures to improve the situation is likely to be destroyed. Presently, that means every state in the world.
It's true that when financial and military collapse comes, they are likely to come very quickly.
[+] [-] erik_landerholm|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sAbakumoff|4 years ago|reply
At the end of 2022, GOP will win the mid-term elections and have the majority in the house and the senate.
They already have state legislatures effectively under control, and the supreme court is full of conservative judges.
In 2024 Ron De Santos, or another authoritarian candidate, will win the GOP nomination and easily win the election because Mr. Biden is a total loser.
With the supermajority, the GOP will establish an autocracy for decades.
[+] [-] synergy20|4 years ago|reply
Because in 2026, Dem will win back both congress and senate, it's just a normal pattern. Voters never liked any party owns it all.
Two parties keep playing this along the way, except each game are so close these days, it's tiring and boring and hard to advance any agenda when either one is in control.
The system is getting close to deadlock when both sides no longer honor the game rule: "debate before the election, work together after it and just wait for your next turn". Instead it's now about fighting every day, it does not matter who won the election anymore. The end result?
"Nothing Got Done(tm)"
In that sense, it's not because China is doing better, it's because US's internal problem stops itself, and may bring it down.
[+] [-] chasd00|4 years ago|reply
do you just mean win elections for decades? That i can sort of believe (or at least comprehend), but wholesale destruction of Democracy? To me, that means canceling elections and the president declaring themself absolute power for life which i just don't see happening. I would expect a military coup before that since the military swears allegiance to the constitution first and then civilian leadership next.
[+] [-] treespace88|4 years ago|reply
They can’t seem to find a single thing to unify on.
[+] [-] jessaustin|4 years ago|reply
American democracy collapsed in 1788, when the wealthy forced through a "constitution" that overruled democratic regulation of debt.
[+] [-] xeromal|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] weatherlight|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] COGlory|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] misiti3780|4 years ago|reply
I actually think it's more likely that a third party like Andrew Yangs Forward Party emerges and wins an election. A lot of people are sick of two options, and feel alienated in by their own party (both sides)
[+] [-] AlgorithmicTime|4 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] fallingknife|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] djohnston|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] anonporridge|4 years ago|reply
The inverse is not true.
The best and brightest Americans (regardless of race) can never effectively defect to China. Maybe if you're ethnically Han Chinese your children will have a chance to be fully integrated and accepted, but definitely not if you're any other race.
The gravity of best and brightest migration is still one way into the American singularity.
[+] [-] jeffreyrogers|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] educaysean|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Clubber|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Shadonototra|4 years ago|reply
Greed, gluttony, spread of cancerous culture, lack of social justice and many more
[+] [-] jfengel|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kkjjkgjjgg|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] newaccount2021|4 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] unknown|4 years ago|reply
[deleted]