I wonder how under-reported mild breakthrough cases are, due to self testing?
I'm fully vaccinated and boosted, and I had what I suspect is Omicron about 10 days ago. I had a mild fever (approaching, but not reaching 101), a sore throat, sneezing and nasal congestion for 3-4 days, and I tested positive with an over the counter rapid test. Overall, it was like a very minor cold. My girlfriend also tested positive, and she had no symptoms at all.
I never got any "official" test (I didn't want to put additional strain on the health care system), so my case was not counted in any official stats. If I hadn't tested positive, my girlfriend would not have even tested, and her case would have been totally unknown.
The number --- 871 cases per day per 100,000 unvax'd, for the week preceding 1/10-- is an amazing rate (7 day average). It tells us that 6.1% of the unvaxxed population became a case during a 1 week period. This doesn't count people who were infected and did not test or did not test in a way that got reported.
Your point about whether mild infections are slipping through is interesting. Probably the vaccinated have more paucisymptomatic infections. The unvaccinated and vaccinated probably test at different rates (which way? required workplace testing of unvaxxed vs. unvaxxed more likely to be deniers who don't want to test). Etc. So there's some confounds here, for sure. But boy that 871 per 100k number is fascinating.
Without reinfection (which we don't suspect is likely for Omicron-following-Omicron), it certainly can't stay at 6% of the population per week for long. I doubt they have spotted more than a third of infections.
Here in Ontario Canada, the official government guidance is to not get tested if you have a mild case, due to a province-wide shortage of PCR tests [1]. Several friends have likely contracted COVID in the past 2 weeks (38-39 degree fever for 2-4 days with some coughing). Nothing serious enough to go to the hospital, but enough to take some time off work. All their cases are also unreported.
hundreds of thousands in NYC alone. I'm one of them too, similar situation to your gf. Triple vaxed, was asymptomatic but got positive home tests across different brands. Was unable to get a PCR test, so I didn't get in the official numbers.
>Current estimates of cases and hospitalizations by vaccine status, and vaccine effectiveness
Estimate is the key word here. It's really difficult for me to trust official figures given that omicron appears to be spreading virtually unabated across the world regardless of vaccination rates. There's far too much political (state and corporate) pressure to paint a "safe and effective" picture.
As others have pointed out, people in the US are simply not reporting breakthrough cases. There is no incentive. The majority of my fully vaccinated remote workers at have recently tested positive, presumably for omicron. Yet our small startup has still chosen to announce mandates for all, including remote workers. This all feels a lot more like blind faith than science at this point.
It is really hard to find stats. “Vaccinated” is such a difficult term because it can encompass J&J from nearly a year ago for example. I see some breakdowns by vax supplier vs hospitalizations.
Really would like to know how many people who have taken the booster have died from covid ideally with age data.
> A total of 843,208 participants met the eligibility criteria, of whom 758,118 (90%) received the booster during the 54-day study period. Death due to Covid-19 occurred in 65 participants in the booster group (0.16 per 100,000 persons per day) and in 137 participants in the nonbooster group (2.98 per 100,000 persons per day). The adjusted hazard ratio for death due to Covid-19 in the booster group, as compared with the nonbooster group, was 0.10 (95% confidence interval, 0.07 to 0.14; P<0.001).
One thing to note is that the effectiveness metric also includes the behavioral and populational differences.
I'd personally really like to know what the metric would be if (hypothetically, just for analysis) the vaccine was a placebo. For example, if the people who get the vaccine are generally more able to work from home, then the metric would still be significantly above zero.
Just for clarity, I believe that the vaccine is effective, but I question the measurement methodology.
Well, one important confounder is age (older people tend to be more vaccinated), but they control for that.
Many other confounders cannot easily be controlled for, but is there any reason to assume that they're correlated with the outcome? It could be that vaccinated people are more careful in terms of meeting other people.
At any rate, we had big RCTs at the beginning that demonstrated efficacy against the then prevailing variant (alpha, I assume).
I don't really get the example of being able to work from home, but I would expect differences are extremely regional/national.
In some countries there's a formal labor law for doctors notes after X days that is known by all and which might mean your doctor checks and registers the case(?) in other places it is total discretion if a manager demands a note but rarely does in places that aren't shift work oriented.
Interesting that while the odds of the vaccine protecting against infection are near all-time lows (mid 70s), vaccine protection against hospitalization is near all-time highs (mid-90s).
Also interesting that this data treats 14-days+ after last shot as fully vaccinated, so presumably two-shot and three-shot people are both treated as “fully vaccinated”.
> Fully-vaccinated people may have received additional or booster doses, which are not specifically accounted for in this analysis.
That's probably essentially what you'd expect with omicron, which is more effective at immune escape but appears less effective at causing serious illness (at least in vaccinated and previously infected people).
you are protected from infection only if you have a huge number of antibodies since they can immediately overpower the virus when it gets in. when the antibodies are few and the virus comes in you have to wait for the trained t-cells to produce enough of them to again overpower the virus, so you get sick for a short time and then get better.
of course the quality of a vaccine determines how quickly and effectively the dormant t-cells are able to produce antibodies, so a very very very good vaccine can even protect from infection years after inoculation, and that's why the CDC has recently asked for more research in order to produce these kind of vaccines for the long term
I'm full vaccinated and boosted. This week my antigen test is positive. I had some flu symptoms (fever, pain in my body, coughing) but nothing really hard. I'm still not 100%, but I'm fine. I'm 40 years old, on my weight and do regular sports (5x week). I dont smoke neither drink. Got it probably in the fitness studio. I will stay at home until my test is negative. I have 0 incentive to go to the hospital do a PCR test and be officially forced in a 2 weeks isolation.
I don't know where you are located but here in Switzerland I would definitely want the positive PCR test as proof. Although it may no longer be needed as it looks like this will be over soon the confirmation of an infection is treated here almost like a vaccination. So you will get a certificate extension etc. The isolation time here has been reduced to 5 days with minimum 2 days symptom free.
This data is really quite poor. It’s adjusted based on a 2000 census. It’s also showing a 2 dose effectiveness of over 70% against Omicron which we know to be under 10%. If you’re using this as an argument to get vaccinated, it’s a bad one.
This report provides only age-adjusted numbers for vaccine effectiveness, but doesn't provide the model used to arrive at those numbers. If you look at the raw numbers, a different picture emerges:
Chances of not being hospitalized with Covid:
Unvaccinated: 99.9%
Vaccinated: 99.99%
Instead of providing a useful picture, the report compares two tiny numbers from each group and makes it a point to amplify the differences.
Figure it’s relevant to this thread - Eric Topol (very credentialed medical researcher) does a pretty good overview & summary on how the vaccines are doing.
To enjoy an interesting and arguably also somewhat more accurate experience reading articles such as these, try mentally replacing the term "vaccine breakthrough" with "vaccine failure". Going to hospital is not protection.
The article starts with a statistic (as opposed to anecdote):
> These findings demonstrate that such cases and hospitalizations have occurred in New York State, but at levels substantially lower than among unvaccinated people
Of course, one could argue that New York State doesn't make a large scale statistic, but it's still far from being anecdata.
"Everyone I know" is anecdotal and most people that use this language are outright lying. Trump is an expert at "They're saying things are bad" and of course some people believe this nonsense. "Everyone" and "They" are propaganda tools.
Make a claim. Provide the evidence.
Otherwise you're just one of the people that refuses to accept reality.
Did you even read the article you posted below (since flagged, not by me)? It outlines the study's results, which very clearly say that the results only show that omicron is effective at evading vaccines, and do not indicate any increased susceptibility based on vaccine use. It describes its results as "a measure of how well Omicron evades the vaccines compared to Delta." It also states, "from our recent characteristics release, we also see that unvaccinated people overall are more likely to test positive for COVID-19, regardless of variant" (emphasis mine). Not to mention the test-hesitancy of the un-vaccinated population. You need to stop spreading misleading interpretations.
Did the downstream thread get flagged? I replied to this comment and I only see 3-4 replies now. I can still view my own comment in context but it isn’t appearing.
[+] [-] drewg123|4 years ago|reply
I'm fully vaccinated and boosted, and I had what I suspect is Omicron about 10 days ago. I had a mild fever (approaching, but not reaching 101), a sore throat, sneezing and nasal congestion for 3-4 days, and I tested positive with an over the counter rapid test. Overall, it was like a very minor cold. My girlfriend also tested positive, and she had no symptoms at all.
I never got any "official" test (I didn't want to put additional strain on the health care system), so my case was not counted in any official stats. If I hadn't tested positive, my girlfriend would not have even tested, and her case would have been totally unknown.
[+] [-] mlyle|4 years ago|reply
https://covid19.sccgov.org/dashboard-case-rates-vaccination-...
The number --- 871 cases per day per 100,000 unvax'd, for the week preceding 1/10-- is an amazing rate (7 day average). It tells us that 6.1% of the unvaxxed population became a case during a 1 week period. This doesn't count people who were infected and did not test or did not test in a way that got reported.
Your point about whether mild infections are slipping through is interesting. Probably the vaccinated have more paucisymptomatic infections. The unvaccinated and vaccinated probably test at different rates (which way? required workplace testing of unvaxxed vs. unvaxxed more likely to be deniers who don't want to test). Etc. So there's some confounds here, for sure. But boy that 871 per 100k number is fascinating.
Without reinfection (which we don't suspect is likely for Omicron-following-Omicron), it certainly can't stay at 6% of the population per week for long. I doubt they have spotted more than a third of infections.
[+] [-] SoylentOrange|4 years ago|reply
[1]: https://globalnews.ca/news/8480752/ontario-covid-pcr-testing...
[+] [-] parkingrift|4 years ago|reply
I haven’t seen such absurd lines lately in NYC, but I also don’t see any compelling reason for most people to go get an official test.
[+] [-] awb|4 years ago|reply
I bet Google & Facebook have enough metadata to measure it more accurately.
I personally know of a dozen or so unreported positives (both tested positive and presumed positive), compared to two reported positives.
[+] [-] chadlavi|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] brg|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] iseehn|4 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] roamerz|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] twofornone|4 years ago|reply
Estimate is the key word here. It's really difficult for me to trust official figures given that omicron appears to be spreading virtually unabated across the world regardless of vaccination rates. There's far too much political (state and corporate) pressure to paint a "safe and effective" picture.
As others have pointed out, people in the US are simply not reporting breakthrough cases. There is no incentive. The majority of my fully vaccinated remote workers at have recently tested positive, presumably for omicron. Yet our small startup has still chosen to announce mandates for all, including remote workers. This all feels a lot more like blind faith than science at this point.
[+] [-] wand3r|4 years ago|reply
It is really hard to find stats. “Vaccinated” is such a difficult term because it can encompass J&J from nearly a year ago for example. I see some breakdowns by vax supplier vs hospitalizations.
Really would like to know how many people who have taken the booster have died from covid ideally with age data.
[+] [-] throw0101a|4 years ago|reply
* https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2115624
0.16 versus 2.98 per 100,000. 90% reduction.
[+] [-] steveBK123|4 years ago|reply
Source - https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm...
The answer seems to be extremely few boosted deaths, especially under 80. You are at more risk unvaccinated in your 40s than boosted in your 80s.
[+] [-] StephenAmar|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mariojv|4 years ago|reply
https://twitter.com/redouad/status/1482991873190936576?s=21
[+] [-] unknown|4 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] Scene_Cast2|4 years ago|reply
I'd personally really like to know what the metric would be if (hypothetically, just for analysis) the vaccine was a placebo. For example, if the people who get the vaccine are generally more able to work from home, then the metric would still be significantly above zero.
Just for clarity, I believe that the vaccine is effective, but I question the measurement methodology.
[+] [-] FabHK|4 years ago|reply
Many other confounders cannot easily be controlled for, but is there any reason to assume that they're correlated with the outcome? It could be that vaccinated people are more careful in terms of meeting other people.
At any rate, we had big RCTs at the beginning that demonstrated efficacy against the then prevailing variant (alpha, I assume).
It'll be tricky to repeat an RCT at this stage.
[+] [-] smorgusofborg|4 years ago|reply
In some countries there's a formal labor law for doctors notes after X days that is known by all and which might mean your doctor checks and registers the case(?) in other places it is total discretion if a manager demands a note but rarely does in places that aren't shift work oriented.
[+] [-] awb|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] awb|4 years ago|reply
Also interesting that this data treats 14-days+ after last shot as fully vaccinated, so presumably two-shot and three-shot people are both treated as “fully vaccinated”.
> Fully-vaccinated people may have received additional or booster doses, which are not specifically accounted for in this analysis.
[+] [-] rsynnott|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Mystlix|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] throwawaybutno|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] pelasaco|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sschueller|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|4 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] unknown|4 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] throwawaybutno|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] nojito|4 years ago|reply
This isn't possible. If it were true, NYC would have collapsed during the Omicron wave due to bed shortages.
[+] [-] ttfkam|4 years ago|reply
Source?
[+] [-] benpiper|4 years ago|reply
Chances of not being hospitalized with Covid:
Unvaccinated: 99.9%
Vaccinated: 99.99%
Instead of providing a useful picture, the report compares two tiny numbers from each group and makes it a point to amplify the differences.
[+] [-] webscalist|4 years ago|reply
- More people get vaccinated: A
- Less people remain unvaccinated: A' (=1-A)
- More people get infected: B
B/A' will of course grow more rapidly than B/A
[+] [-] pstoll|4 years ago|reply
https://erictopol.substack.com/p/were-very-lucky
[+] [-] argvargc|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] iseehn|4 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] encryptluks2|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] pizza234|4 years ago|reply
> These findings demonstrate that such cases and hospitalizations have occurred in New York State, but at levels substantially lower than among unvaccinated people
Of course, one could argue that New York State doesn't make a large scale statistic, but it's still far from being anecdata.
[+] [-] ChicagoDave|4 years ago|reply
Make a claim. Provide the evidence.
Otherwise you're just one of the people that refuses to accept reality.
[+] [-] jscheel|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] wand3r|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] responsivity|4 years ago|reply