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egg1 | 4 years ago

How exactly do you think we eradicated smallpox and polio?

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_djo_|4 years ago

Neither vaccine was fully sterilising. In fact current US CDC advice if going to a country with a polio outbreak is to get a booster.

In both those cases the vaccines just blunted the transmission rate enough for r0 to drop below 1. We were also lucky that the responsible viruses had very stable mutation rates & no animal reservoirs unlike SARS-CoV-2. That meant they mostly died out over time once the transmission rate was reduced.

egg1|4 years ago

Even if the polio vaccine isn't fully sterilizing, would you put our current COVID vaccines in the same league? Imagine we're living in the 60s right now, and we have a polio or smallpox vaccine with 70%+ uptake in the adult population, but the infection rate remains virtually unchanged. Would you consider this good enough?

I mean, take this quote from Dr. Fauci himself:

> As a physician and as a scientist and a public-health person, I think it is not entirely correct to make this very strong dichotomy between waning protection against hospitalization and death and waning immunity against infection and mild-to-moderate disease. It is an assumption that it’s okay to get infected and to get mild-to-moderate disease as long as you don’t wind up in the hospital and die. And I have to be open and honest: I reject that. I think we should be preventing people from getting sick from COVID even if they don’t wind up in the hospital.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/09/fauci-boo...

msbarnett|4 years ago

By lowering its R0 below 1. Which doesn't not require "sterilizing" vaccines (which is good, since neither the smallpox nor polio vaccine eliminated infection or transmission with anything close to 100% effectiveness).