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A year on, GameStop champion Roaring Kitty is quiet, yet much richer

175 points| testrun | 4 years ago |reuters.com

264 comments

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[+] jimmydorry|4 years ago|reply
It really lifts the veil on how little research goes into some of these articles when you see the reporting on a topic you have closely followed.

>The stock, which peaked at $482.95 a share when hedge funds that had shorted GameStop were forced to buy at any price, has come back to earth. But it is still at about $112 a share, compared to less than $20 on Jan. 1, 2021.

This is a pretty basic error to make when the SEC investigated and even put out a report showing that the majority of that price movement was from non-short sellers (e.g. retail) and that as a proportion of volume, barely any of it was due to short sellers closing their positions.

The article also completely glossed over the fact that DFV was made fun of and derrided for taking such a large risk in GME. Especially when it was down (for a majority of the time since he started posting that position, if I recall corrected). It instead portrays him as making "consistent returns" and starting a movement to influence the price.

[1] https://www.sec.gov/files/staff-report-equity-options-market... Page 28 if you want a nice graph to take a glance at.

[+] shawabawa3|4 years ago|reply
> the SEC investigated and even put out a report showing that the majority of that price movement was from non-short sellers (e.g. retail) and that as a proportion of volume, barely any of it was due to short sellers closing their positions.

That's talking about the longer lasting effects (i.e. the reason GME stayed at $100+)

but from p26:

> particularly during the earlier rise from January 22 to 27 the price of GME rose as the short interest decreased. Staff also observed discrete periods of sharp price increases during which accounts held by firms known to the staff to be covering short interest in GME were actively buying large volumes of GME shares, in some cases accounting for very significant portions of the net buying pressure during a period

The run up to $500 was almost certainly a short squeeze

[+] andrewclunn|4 years ago|reply
That's because the point of this article is "Don't trust these scam artists!" because collective action motivated by hatred of elite rigging the system... is dangerous to those elite.
[+] bigram|4 years ago|reply
It's not clear to me what you think the error is. That the majority of the price action was caused by retail and not short sellers covering their position doesn't negate the fact that shorts were forced to cover their positions and did so. The language and charts in the SEC report show as much.
[+] JohnJamesRambo|4 years ago|reply
I mean the article basically has no info at all in it. It could have been written by an AI.

Can anyone update me on what the guy is doing now and how much money he made, when he sold, does he still hold any, etc.? The actual interesting part of the story.

[+] subsubzero|4 years ago|reply
DFV was a player but not the ringleader by any means. Basically a bunch of reddit users on r/wallstreetbets came up with a premise to buy into heavily shorted stocks to:

A. Initiate a short squeeze in heavily shorted stocks by having retail traders pile into them by buying shares and..

B. Strike back at market manipulators like Andrew Left and Melvin Capitol by forcing them to buy back their short positions due to skyrocketing share prices of their shorted assets.

On the wallstreetbets forum point B was touted as the reason to buy into these stock positions due to all the issues these wall street short sellers cause with traders and society in general. DFV was just lucky in that his trade was picked up by the crowd due to it being heavily shorted and eligible for point A.

[+] curiousgal|4 years ago|reply
The SEC uses ggplot? That's awesome, go R!
[+] bananapear|4 years ago|reply
> It really lifts the veil on how little research goes into some of these articles when you see the reporting on a topic you have closely followed.

Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray's case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the "wet streets cause rain" stories. Paper's full of them.

In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Crichton#GellMannAmnes...

[+] ABeeSea|4 years ago|reply
Shorts covering causes the initial run-up and then retail FOMO’d in causing the rest. The short interest graph and language starting on the bottom of page 26 make it clear that shorts covered.
[+] tootie|4 years ago|reply
The article was about the guy and what he's doing now, not the nitty gritty of the stock value.
[+] 3pt14159|4 years ago|reply
People have figured out that one of the ways to get to overnight wealth is to solve the collective action problem and they're getting better and better at fostering it and at coming up with legal ways to avoid existing regulations against pump and dump schemes. Doing it "for the lulz" to hose a bunch of hedge fund shorts. Or creating NFTs around "things" you "own" and pumping them up. Knockoff dogcoins that have nothing to do with the playfulness of the original.

The sad part is that we could actually solve some real problems by coordinating collective action on, say, starting a new city that's designed around non-motorized transit within the city limits. But we don't. We get Snoop Dogg crypto instead.

It's all so depressing.

[+] clktmr|4 years ago|reply
I was following "Roaring Kittys" Youtube Channel when he had less than 400 subscribers. This was never intended to be a pump and dump, he genuinely made a case for a better valuation. The mania and hype started right after the short squeeze in january and I a agree that the community that built around it is mostly a shitshow. However many of the original investors are still invested believing in a business turn-around lead by Ryan Cohen.
[+] logicalmonster|4 years ago|reply
> People have figured out that one of the ways to get to overnight wealth is to solve the collective action problem and they're getting better and better at fostering it and at coming up with legal ways to avoid existing regulations against pump and dump schemes.

For what it's worth, Roaring Kitty's original video streams where he analyzes GameStop's stock should still be up on YouTube and probably cross-posted on other sites. He has hours and hours of commentary on the topic so if he said anything urging collective action or pumping the stock in an illegal way, somebody should be able to find it. As far as I remember, he was just doing a fundamental business analysis of GameStop and just pointed out that the stock was drastically underpriced given the upcoming new console cycle and his opinion that the actual business of selling physical games was not yet on the way out. Should commenting on a security that you like be illegal in a free society?

As far as your commentary about the increase of "pump and dump" schemes, I think the technology is more useful than you seem to recognize and that we're in the very early stages of blockchain tech and better uses for it will be found, but that's a separate issue I'd rather not go into here.

But as far as the pumps/dumps go, I think you're more closely looking at the symptom and not the cause. What's closer to the root cause of all of these financial schemes is the mental health crisis impacting young people. Many young people are feeling hopeless about the future for many, many reasons, and feel that financially making it through extreme risk taking is the only way to have a good life. Many are just dropping out of society. You can see this being impacted in some widely popularized stats like the number of young men not having sex, suicide rates, college attendance dropping, and many more things. What's going on with the mental health of the young is much more important to the future of humanity than the fixation society is currently stuck on.

[+] giantg2|4 years ago|reply
"The sad part is that we could actually solve some real problems by coordinating collective action on, say, starting a new city that's designed around non-motorized transit within the city limits."

The incentives are different. The people trying to get rich quick are not likely to do hard work to make/grow a city. Hell, it's hard enough to get people to do the simple act of voting (especially in primaries) or going to municipal or school board meetings.

[+] Kalium|4 years ago|reply
> The sad part is that we could actually solve some real problems by coordinating collective action on, say, starting a new city that's designed around non-motorized transit within the city limits. But we don't. We get Snoop Dogg crypto instead.

Is it perhaps possible that what's been solved is not collective action in a general sense, but transparently self-interested collective action for a narrow easy-engagement rapid-payoff set of problems?

Revamping city design, or setting up a new one, doesn't meet any of those criteria. It's not easy to engage with. It doesn't pay off quickly. It's not immediately obvious why a random person would want to jump on.

So, go ahead. Lament that the teeming masses have collectively made a decision that's not the one we would like them to. It is a modern tragedy. For my own part, I think there are lessons to be learned in why one decision was collectively made and acted on and not another.

[+] slingnow|4 years ago|reply
> The sad part is that we could actually solve some real problems by coordinating collective action on, say, starting a new city that's designed around non-motorized transit within the city limits. But we don't. We get Snoop Dogg crypto instead.

Right. And if only we could all just band together, we could create world peace and end hunger! It's so easy you guys! Just everyone cooperate!

You honestly think starting a meme cryptocoin is equivalent to the effort required to build a new city!? How are these things even remotely related?

[+] throwaway22032|4 years ago|reply
I agree that it's depressing that people don't realise the power of collective action. It would be lovely to see in labour markets or in rental markets for example.

However, the sums of money and level of commitment involved in starting a new city are radically different to that in buying a bit of GameStop or Bitcoin or whatever.

Even if you chucked in ten grand your friends might think you're crazy.

By contrast that's not even getting you half of the materials of a house. Or an apartment. Even if it's a prefab with no interior. And we haven't even started talking about making a city yet, what with all of the roads and power lines and decision makers and those juicy bits.

It's actually just a far harder problem to solve.

[+] pjc50|4 years ago|reply
Pump and dump is the very opposite of collective action: no real value is created, you're just fleecing a bunch of optimists in a very zero-sum game.

(Mind you, a lot of high profile VC deals look like that as well! Remember Wework?)

[+] 6gvONxR4sf7o|4 years ago|reply
The collective action problem that’s been solved is getting people to collectively click a button. It’s why you see tons of people upvote things or change their profile pictures in support of a movement. But getting them to go past that is still as hard as it’s ever been.
[+] netcan|4 years ago|reply
Taking this more meta, and possibly utopian...

Collective action, or rather, any effective form of organisation is (arguably) the limiting factor on human progress. Corporation, country, tribe, union... all forms of organisation.

These are all very different, have very different strengths, weaknesses and abilities. Tribal chiefs are not very likely to be effective at the same things, in the same way as a CEO or a prime minister. Linux, GNU, WWW, Wikipedia and such are another form. Rare, relatively. But novel and productive. What these organisations produced is again, qualitatively different from what commercial entities produce. There's a medium-message dynamic between form and product.

A lot of things are clearly doable, but our forms of organisation don't produce them. We're basically limited to the things that are forms of organisation can produce. Organisational methods are a limiting factor to the same extent that resources, science and such are limiting factors.

This starts (according to YNH) at the start of history, or rather, we might define "human history" as the point at which our methods of organisation develop past biological determinants. IE, chimps operate in troops. Gorillas in harems. Geladas in a complex herd structure. Modern humans are (again, according to YNH) the homo subspecies with the ability to switch. That said, we're not that good at it.

For the most part, human cooperation of this epoch is defined by working tirelessly against each other in such a way that sometimes produces emergent benefits. Within

^In a literal sense.

[+] kingkawn|4 years ago|reply
There has been concerted action against collective action for over a century in the west. That the only way people feel comfortable expressing it now is with the cover of financial schemes is a temporary, I agree bullshit, phase. People are building cultural experiences to validate the effort to themselves and will come around to it without the need to be scamming someone. Just give them some time, the pursuit of novelty alone will solve this.
[+] at_a_remove|4 years ago|reply
This reminds me of, on a very differently-colored website, someone whining, "Why doesn't 4chan's Anonymous work on cancer?" They were sad about it.

You have confused a short-term low-effort collective action not much more different than a Tweeetstorm with some kind of long-term civilizational megaproject, and all over your very own pet issue. Come on.

[+] beepbooptheory|4 years ago|reply
> ...starting a new city...

Curious what you mean here, and how it relates to collective action?

[+] likeabbas|4 years ago|reply
>The sad part is that we could actually solve some real problems by coordinating collective action on, say, starting a new city that's designed around non-motorized transit within the city limits.

I have been dreaming of doing something like this lately! The issue is where would we do it? How would we get people to move there? Who will fund it?

[+] nayuki|4 years ago|reply
> cities designed around non-motorized transit

Buses and trains have engines and motors. You probably mean designing around public transit rather than personally owned vehicles.

[+] AnIdiotOnTheNet|4 years ago|reply
> The sad part is that we could actually solve some real problems by coordinating collective action on, say, starting a new city that's designed around non-motorized transit within the city limits.

In general it would seem that human beings don't actually want to make the world a better place, but if you can find a way to sell it as a get rich quick scheme it might actually work.

[+] micromacrofoot|4 years ago|reply
doesn’t that overnight success come at the expense of a lot of the normal people trying to strike it rich too? seems like a few break through but it’s the same old exploitation for most
[+] PragmaticPulp|4 years ago|reply
I check the GameStop subreddits every once in a while out of morbid curiosity. The content has become a cross between pump spam and conspiracy theories. It’s hard to tell, but I think the masses of GameStop believers aren’t even interested in the dump portion of the pump-and-dump scheme because all of the smart money exited the trade a while ago. Everyone left is convinced that they’re either performing some sort of activism and/or about to become unbelievably wealthy when their conspiracy theories come true and the stock price is forced into the millions.

The “mother of all short squeezes” theory has been debunked over and over again, but the initial price action due to the media frenzy has convinced a lot of people that there’s something else going on. Any information that contradicts the theory is not welcome in their Reddit bubbles, but any “DD” that supports the theory is upvoted rapidly. It was interesting to watch at first, but it’s becoming increasingly depressing as it becomes clear how many people have put too much of their own money into this pump scheme turned conspiracy theory.

[+] jdmoreira|4 years ago|reply
I watched some of his videos where he went through his setup for finding investment opportunities. It was very informative and it resonated with me since his approach definitely falls under the umbrella of value investing.

He did get very lucky with the way Gamestop played out for him but overall I think he is a person deserving of his luck and he did his work beforehand. This is not some crazy NFT opportunist, he seems like a decent guy and he even has a CFA so he put in the hours in that as well. There was luck involved but also skill and hard work.

[+] udbhavs|4 years ago|reply
I've seen some comments comparing the recent r/antiwork mod on Fox fiasco to how well spoken and prepared DFV was defending himself in front of congress. The guy knew his stuff and it puts into perspective how bad things could have turned had he not known how to handle his sudden media presence.
[+] anm89|4 years ago|reply
Yeah I think this gets lost in this conversation. When you watch his earlier videos it was very clear that he was incredibly sharp. I'm sure even he was dumbfounded at how this all played out but he wasn't some idiot running around trying to low effort pump and dump on forums. He had an extensive portfolio which was incredibly well researched, Gamestop just happened to be one of his higher conviction positions.
[+] anyfactor|4 years ago|reply
I have watched DFV's senate hearing several times. That man is incredibly smart. Seriously have his speaking compilation video a watch. The way he handles bipartisan questions and won the heart of both democrats and republicans is incredible. He was extremely empathatic and personable when it came to responding to questions. He didn't dodge a single question but everything he said made him stronger by word. It is incredible. I have watched a lot senate and cogressional hearing and I can say he was phenomenonal. These hearing almost always make people feel they were being blamed of something or being negligent but in DFV's case.... I have no clue how he formed sentences on the spot to create common ground.

I have been in WSB for ages and there is a very very niche, handful of people who might be the smaetest people I have ever interacted on the internet.

[+] izzydata|4 years ago|reply
I still have friends that adamantly believe Gamestop stock is going to make them obscenely rich despite losing significant amounts of money on it. Yet at the same time they say things like NFTs are a scam and all crypto is a ponzi scheme. It is very weird to me that they can lack the self awareness of being in a cult while calling other things cults.

If a year of nothing is not enough to convince them that nothing is going to happen I don't know what will. Hopefully in 5 years from now they will realize it was nothing but a retail fueled crazed pump and dump and the vast majority of players lost money.

[+] Anadorr|4 years ago|reply
It seems that many people here are convinced that all short positions on GME were closed. This is actually surprisingly hard to prove, given that:

- Market Makers don't fall under the same requirements as other market participants (e.g. broker dealers) and can create artificial short positions without having shares to borrow, and are allowed extra time to deliver them

- Synthetic short positions (e.g. by the means of options) do not have to be reported and FINRA is only now 'considering' asking to report it [1]

- Short positions by the means of shorting ETFs containing GME are reported as ETF SI (and XRT, by the way, has 700% SI)

There are many indicators that suggest the opposite (that short positions were not closed):

- Retail directly registered over 10% of available float (excl. insider shares) as of 3 months ago [2]

- GME still had spikes of failure-to-deliver in August, similar to original FTD & price spike [3]

- GME is IBKR's hottest short by value as of 1/27 [4]

This is not a financial advice, everyone does their own due diligence. Disclosure: I own directly registered shares of GME.

1 - https://www.finra.org/sites/default/files/2021-06/Regulatory...

2 - https://investor.gamestop.com/node/19571/html "As of October 30, 2021, 5.2 million shares of our Class A common stock were directly registered with our transfer agent, ComputerShare"

3 - https://stocksera.pythonanywhere.com/ticker/failure_to_deliv...

4 - https://www.tradersinsight.news/traders-insight/securities/s...

[+] q_andrew|4 years ago|reply
He's probably smart enough to know that his discovery and fame was one-in-a-million, and that lightning doesn't usually strike the same place twice.
[+] belval|4 years ago|reply
Considering he is being investigated, any lawyer would have told him to lay low and just enjoy his money for the new 2-3 years. Nothing here is surprising.
[+] barrkel|4 years ago|reply
The fact that the stock is still up >$110 from <$20 suggests that his value hypothesis wasn't completely wrong. Prices reflect current demand and viral meme demand should have long ebbed away by now.
[+] planetafro|4 years ago|reply
I'm just aghast that they are still trying to figure out if he broke any laws. As in, how in the heck would a retail trader even know if the experts can't figure it out? ...feels like they think his actions results were negative and they want a scapegoat by any means possible.

Ultimately, the sentiment is to protect the financial sector while punishing retail. Business as usual.

[+] thedangler|4 years ago|reply
I've been watching this for a while now. /wallstreetbets was infiltrated by shills. Everyone that wanted to keep researching moved to /superstonk they have strict rules. Sure there are shills there too.

If anyone wants to learn more about the situation should head to https://fliphtml5.com/bookcase/kosyg

The best is MSM telling retail investors to forget GameStop and sell every single day. Why do they care? Who's interest do they have?

Anyways, it's been a real eye opener.

My opinion is the market is a giant slow Ponzi scheme built over time to fleece retail investors.

[+] swarnie|4 years ago|reply
DFV owns my heart but ruined my favourite subreddit, i have mixed feelings.....
[+] rtkwe|4 years ago|reply
r/wallstreetbets is still riding high on the idea they can do it again with another stock and/or that there's still a squeeze just waiting to happen and people holding GME aren't bag holding.
[+] anm89|4 years ago|reply
If you haven't watched his youtube content go watch it. It's unbelievably high quality. He comes of as a genuinely great guy and he the quality of the analysis he is doing is really good. Definitely puts some things around this story in perspective.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZTr1-Gp74U&t=940s

[+] RowanTree|4 years ago|reply
It's history, it takes a lot of skill to disperse a campaign that nobody wants) And then dump it all on the reddit crowd....LOL
[+] ck2|4 years ago|reply
Rich is nice accomplishment, but I am more impressed with his 4:03 mile to be honest, takes both talent and skill.

If he had not gotten injured he probably wouldn't have had enough time on his hands to research the investments, would be training for marathons, etc.

[+] XIVMagnus|4 years ago|reply
GME FUD in HN seems pretty rare. A lot of talk about GME being a 'cult' and that the hedge funds 'closed' their position. Yet the stock is extremely volatile with little to no volume. Seems weird to me but okay
[+] oneoff786|4 years ago|reply
The efficient market hypothesis is bleeding out in an alley.