[Inufu]

I agree, I expect programmers will just move up the levels of abstraction. I enjoyed this recent blog post on the topic: https://eli.thegreenplace.net/2022/asimov-programming-and-th...

[hackinthebochs]

The "problem" is that as you move up the levels of abstraction, you need fewer people to do the same amount of work. Unless the complexity of the work scales as well. I've always felt that programmers would be the first class of knowledge workers to be put out of work by automation. This may be the beginning of the end for the programming gravy train.

[visarga]

> The "problem" is that as you move up the levels of abstraction, you need fewer people to do the same amount of work.

This will lower the entry barrier to developing software so more people will go into the field. Before you needed to know a programming language, now you will just have a dialogue with a language model.

> I've always felt that programmers would be the first class of knowledge workers to be put out of work by automation.

We've been automating our work for 70 years, and look how many programmers are employed now. The more we automate, the more capable our field becomes and more applications pop up.

[paxys]

> as you move up the levels of abstraction, you need fewer people to do the same amount of work

Yes, but the total amount of work (and surrounding complexity) also increases with it. Just look at the evolution of the software industry over the last few decades.

[Inufu]

Yes, this is how you increase prosperity (see: agricultural revolution, industrial revolution, etc). You can now create more with the same number of people.

[bmh100]

On the other hand, as the value of an hour of programming increases, the quantity demanded may also increase.

[hmate9]

Or you can do things at a faster pace and increase your productivity.

[NicoJuicy]

There aren't enough developers either way.