[eihli]

Not directly related but while I have the eyes of some technical people reading about the lottery, I want to throw this out there.

I have 4+ years worth of daily scratch off lottery ticket results from a dozen or so different states.

Every day, the state updates their website with the numbers of tickets remaining at each ticket level. I've been scraping that and saving it.

If anyone would find this data interesting I'd be happy to share the SQLite database. I just ask that you share your code/queries and what you find.

- Are the grand prizes truly random? Or are they stratified?

- Do games end with an unusually high number of grand prizes unclaimed?

- Is there a buffer when a game is first released when no grand prize is possible?

You could scan some Working Papers to get ideas of things to check the integrity of: https://docs.zohopublic.com/file/pze38fbeed85562834d5696105b...

Those working papers have things like "guaranteed low-end prize structures" per pack of tickets.

Tips based on those working papers:

- Buy from a fresh pack until you get a winner then stop. Since there's a guaranteed number of winners per pack, each loser you scratch improves the odds for the rest of the pack.

- Don't buy from a pack that's already had a big winner. Most working papers stipulate no more than 1 large prize per pack.

[eihli]

Here's the data through ~October of last year. ~500MB.

https://docs.zohopublic.com/file/pze38c35faf87eb654907b51890...

I'm using it to power https://scratchoff-odds.com right now.

[jliptzin]

I see one game in Missouri has a score of 146. Is there anything stopping someone from buying all the remaining tickets (other than time and money obviously) and pocketing the $4 million difference?

Also, is it possible someone has grand prize winner but incorrectly throws it in the trash (because they overlooked the fact that it was a winner/didn’t scratch it all the way off)? Would the website pick up on that?

[41b696ef1113]

What is with the fractional numbers in `game.num_tx_initial` for some of the rows? I am assuming this is number of tickets sold. Parsing error?

Edit: The site is pretty cool. I get strong vibes of the Winfall lottery story[0]

[0] https://highline.huffingtonpost.com/articles/en/lotto-winner...

[eihli]

If you do something cool with it, let me know at [e-mail].

[rbassett3]

I am a university Prof and a statistician. I'd love to get these data into my courses if you are willing to share it. It's a great example that students can easily relate to.

[stainforth]

To #2, as typical consumer walking in to buy a scratch-off, it's unlikely you will know the results of a in-use pack.

[eihli]

Employees could really game the system. On average there's 1 "big" prize (outside the GLEP prizes) every 4 packs. Any time you see a pack go from start to ~5 remaining without a big prize, buy every remaining ticket.

There's also guaranteed restrictions on the maximum number of losers in a row. So if you see ~6+ (depends on ticket) losers in a row, then buy the next few until you win. I've run simulations on those distributions and it's profitable. But it's a situation that only an employee could take advantage of. And it probably comes up rarely.

[YeBanKo]

I would be interested, if you are willing to share the data. Actually, I am thinking now: what if you introduce some anomaly in the data. Something like the man did in the article (draw from a different distribution), and a challenge would be to detect it.

[m4tthumphrey]

A relative did this math the.. not so legal way... and the most he "won" on about 50k cards was £100.

[rPlayer6554]

Wow I'd be very interested in that

[overtonwhy]

Are you addicted to scratchers?