Also related: Spurious Correlations[0]. These are great and really drives home the idea that correlation neither equals or implies causation. At least one of these graphs implies that if the US wanted to reduce the number of drivers getting hit by trains, they simply just need to stop importing oil from Norway.
This is rather silly (and not in the way intended).
The goal of the paper is to demonstrate a strong linear correlation which arises without a trivial confounder (such as age influencing both reading age and shoe size in children). However, the confounder in the case of storks (country land area influences number of storks and absolute number of births) IS trivial.
An acquaintance of mine was a team manager for a government-welfare phone-support entity. The other two managers' names were D'eath and Bludd. My friend married a man named Paine.
So the phone-support teams were managed by Blood, Death, and Pain. It's one of the most wonderful matchups I've ever seen.
I wouldn’t trust this article. How can only be 1 pair of storks in Belgium, while 5000 pairs in Hungary? I think the article needs better peer review before I accept the fact that storks deliver babies.
I'm happy to inform you that nowadays the storks in Belgium are sort of returning. There's two successful breeding programs happening: one in "Het Zwin" and one in "Planckendael". It is sadly true that the stork used to be quasi-extinct over here. Outside of these breeding programmes I've never seen one around.
You're right, the only thing we can logically conclude from this study is that the number of storks known to humans correlates with birth rates, leading to the obvious conclusion that countries which are better at finding storks are also better at having procreative sex, probably due to the close similarity between the two behaviors.
The confounding variable is how large a country is (both size and population - two variables that are themselves related).
The papers “birth rate” is absolute: thousands of births per year in that country. It should be number of births per woman of childbearing years.
Likewise, the number of stork pairs is the absolute number in the country. It should be absolute number per square kilometer, or per square kilometer of stork habitat.
A geographically larger country will (generally) have more people and more storks.
Edit: there are also some outliers heavily influencing things: Poland and Turkey have tons of storks. Belgium, Denmark, Holland, and Switzerland don’t seem to have native storks.
[+] [-] Sindisil|4 years ago|reply
https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikaandersen/2012/03/23/true-f...
[+] [-] FractalParadigm|4 years ago|reply
[0]: https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
[+] [-] sharkweek|4 years ago|reply
REPORT: Average human has less than two arms
[+] [-] jmmcd|4 years ago|reply
The goal of the paper is to demonstrate a strong linear correlation which arises without a trivial confounder (such as age influencing both reading age and shoe size in children). However, the confounder in the case of storks (country land area influences number of storks and absolute number of births) IS trivial.
[+] [-] OJFord|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] keitmo|4 years ago|reply
This Stork did indeed deliver thousands of babies.
[+] [-] samplatt|4 years ago|reply
So the phone-support teams were managed by Blood, Death, and Pain. It's one of the most wonderful matchups I've ever seen.
[+] [-] flobosg|4 years ago|reply
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nominative_determinism
[+] [-] okl|4 years ago|reply
- https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00031305.2016.1...
- https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30324223
[+] [-] 6gb|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] xiphias2|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Koffiepoeder|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] shalmanese|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] hedora|4 years ago|reply
At least we can all agree that it doesn't convincingly argue that horse dewormer is dangerous.
[+] [-] jeffmh|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] apollo1213|4 years ago|reply
A direct view link in browser: https://docmadeeasy.com/v/266959716
[+] [-] zinekeller|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] renewiltord|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dang|4 years ago|reply
Storks Deliver Babies (p= 0.008) - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24700606 - Oct 2020 (58 comments)
[+] [-] chinchilla2020|4 years ago|reply
It doesn't prove anything else besides that.
[+] [-] unknown|4 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] unhammer|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tapland|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] bruce343434|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] TYMorningCoffee|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] noduerme|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jdrc|4 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] ajuc|4 years ago|reply
It negatively influences both stork pairs (storks in Europe mostly live in old-style individual farming countryside) and birth rates.
[+] [-] pyuser583|4 years ago|reply
The papers “birth rate” is absolute: thousands of births per year in that country. It should be number of births per woman of childbearing years.
Likewise, the number of stork pairs is the absolute number in the country. It should be absolute number per square kilometer, or per square kilometer of stork habitat.
A geographically larger country will (generally) have more people and more storks.
Edit: there are also some outliers heavily influencing things: Poland and Turkey have tons of storks. Belgium, Denmark, Holland, and Switzerland don’t seem to have native storks.
[+] [-] HPsquared|4 years ago|reply