U.S. posts $119B budget surplus in January; first in over 2 years

[tablespoon]

> The surplus last month was the first since the $83 billion reported in September 2019 and the largest since the $160 billion in April 2019. April and September are traditionally months with high tax collections....

> The surplus for the month also was helped by the recognition of $70 billion in proceeds from a wireless spectrum auction, a U.S. Treasury official said.

It seems like this is a month to month number that fluctuates widely based on one-off events and things like when people typically pay their taxes.

[ineptech]

> It seems like this is a month to month number that fluctuates widely based on one-off events and things like when people typically pay their taxes.

Even if it varies a lot over the short-term, reaching positive numbers after a long period in the negatives would suggest an upward trend that isn't just noise.

[akg_67]

$49B surplus excluding wireless spectrum auction.

[quickthrower2]

Maybe a good thing. You can’t fake cashflow! You can sure fake “profit”.

[lakeeffect]

Agreed, this is why periodicity is fundamental to accounting.

[supernova87a]

.

[lumost]

This seems like a volatile number - from the article

>The January receipts grew by 21% to $465 billion, boosted by a 21% jump in individual withheld income and payroll taxes that reflected higher employment and earnings due to the economic recovery.

>January outlays fell 37% to $346 billion, partly as they did not include $142 billion in individual stimulus payments sent in January 2021.

>The surplus for the month also was helped by the recognition of $70 billion in proceeds from a wireless spectrum auction, a U.S. Treasury official said.

The trend-line is promising, I'd be curious if inflation is moving income into more taxable sources (at least on paper).

[beerandt]

>January outlays fell 37% to $346 billion, partly as they did not include $142 billion in individual stimulus payments sent in January 2021.

The dropoff in covid spending since congress is in a stalemate and didn't extend programs has clearly got to be the key here, right?

When else have we had a YoY significant drop like that? Especially without being phased out with a taper.

(No matter what everyone wants to argue about over receipts also going up. The why isn't as important because the what isn't uncommon.)

[Victerius]

Government revenue and outlays vary significantly throughout a fiscal year.

For example, the US government is currently operating under a continuing resolution since October 1, 2021. A continuing resolution is a legally binding act that freezes budgets to the levels of the previous fiscal year.

If an appropriations bill is adopted in the next few weeks, government departments will start acting on their budget authorities set forth in the already passed Authorization Acts. The Defense Department is poised to spend $60 billion more in FY22 than in FY21. Expect the temporary budget surplus to decrease when (if?) an appropriations bill is passed.

If an appropriations bill is not passed, Congress could pass another CR for the rest of the fiscal year. If neither a budget nor a CR is passed, a government shutdown happens. It doesn't happen often, but it happens more often than it should, which is never.

The federal budget process of the United States is unnecessarily complicated. Congress basically has to pass the budget twice: first in an authorization bill, and second in an appropriations bill. An authorization bill is an act laying out the various spending authorities of the government for the fiscal year. But it doesn't grant the government the right to withdraw funds from the Treasury Department. An appropriations bill is that. Authorization acts are like your parents giving you a list of products they want you to purchase at the grocery store. An appropriations bill is the actual money to buy the products with.

[nikitaga]

Not sure how much one month can tell us.

Last 20 years of annual deficits, for reference: https://datalab.usaspending.gov/americas-finance-guide/defic...

[m348e912]

Interesting, maybe we can inflate our way out of this crazy $30 trillion debt situation.

[mohanmcgeek]

It's not like $30 trillion is a perpetual bond.

Bonds have a date and the government will need access to the bond market to finance stuff.

If the inflation is higher than the nominal rate on the bond, there would be fewer and fewer takers.

[jgamman]

i read your comment as 'conflate our way out' and thought hhmmm sounds about right

[derobert]

Thankfully, there is no need to speculate on what the trend might be, you can just look it up.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MTSDS133FMS

That's one convenient way to get this data series (and most other economic data, at least for the US).

[aseerdbnarng]

Gov debt is private sector savings. Title rephrased: We've reduced private sector assets by $119bill.

[cwalv]

Maybe also not a bad thing, given that the real return on those assets will likely be negative for years to come.

[momirlan]

there is a statistic for any argument you want to make

[balozi]

When the annualized rate of inflation is at 7.5% and growing, the Treasury Department should probably come up with a new term for whatever that $119B is. Call it anything but a "surplus."

[bpodgursky]

This isn't a meaningful number.

[baybal2]

Now you need to get an annual budget surplus.

[mempko]

For those cheering this on, I recommend you watch this video from David Graeber.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxJW7hl8oqM

TLDR; Government debt is private sector surplus. Government surplus is private sector debt.

[deltree7]

Here's what ZERO of the doomer-preppers (including smart analysts and economists) don't get about inflation.

When a US citizen earns an EXTRA dollar, they pay MARGINAL Tax on it (not average tax, but MARGINAL).

The left (or right) of the GDP equation is literally income. So a 7% inflation means, US treasury gets MARGINAL tax revenue on the 7% income, which mathematically means that Tax Revenue increase has a higher-multiplier effect. (A 1% inflation may result in 3% more tax revenue)

So, all these scaremongering of US having to pay extra interest is actually false. Treasury will make far more Tax Revenue than the rate Federal Reserve can raise rates, which means they can easily absorb high rates.

All in all, Fed is still better of erring on the inflation side than crashing the economy.

Inflation eats away 7% of most people's income. A Recession will eat 100% of many people's income.

Note: This Tax collection phenomenon is completely different from inflation favoring debtors, which is also another advantage for USG.

[throwaway_4ever]

Don't you realize that income tax brackets are adjusted with inflation? Inflation isn't increasing real taxable value.