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Google Drive: Is the Dropbox Party Over?

264 points| bane | 14 years ago |searchenginejournal.com

215 comments

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[+] mattmaroon|14 years ago|reply
When I was in YC (same batch as Dropbox) this was a constant question. "What happens to Dropbox if Gdrive launches?" I don't actually remember what Drew and Arash thought, but a lot of people speculated on it.

It was probably a real threat to them 4.5 years ago. I can't imagine it is now. Dropbox has a large, happy fanbase that's going to keep using it and keep spreading. They're going to keep growing. They've got a small bit of lock-in if you use them a lot too, the annoyance of having to upload a large amount of files to another service. They've got a product that's a joy to use, which is not something Google is known for building outside of their core competency of search.

If I were Dropbox I'd simply view this as market validation (not that they need it at this point) more than anything else.

[+] jpdoctor|14 years ago|reply
> If I were Dropbox I'd simply view this as market validation

And if I were Dropbox, I'd worry like hell. Google isn't depending on making GDrive profitable from fees, so they can literally give it away.

[+] joebadmo|14 years ago|reply
FWIW, one of the reasons I like having a non Google service to hold some important files is in case I hit the Google black swan and get locked out of my gmail account. (I also backup my email regularly.) While integration would probably be convenient, I need to be able to keep working if I do get locked out.
[+] zecg|14 years ago|reply
Dropbox's situation seems extremely precarious. Most users have less than 2 GB of data. That's not lock-in, that's a few minutes of moving. I have about 15.000 high-resolution tagged photos on flickr - that's lock-in.

Simplicity and transparency (from where I'm standing) seem like the things that helped Dropbox proliferate - no fuss, just a directory that syncs, but it also means they have no way to monetize their service (they haven't made a dime from me yet) and they provide no added value.

Now, consider my case. I don't even have to remove the Dropbox client. The folder is already mirrored on my computer, when I install the next version of Ubuntu I have to explicitly add the PPA and install the proprietary Nautilus extension. If I don't do that, I can just drag the folder to another service. At some point it's easier to quit than to continue using it, which is why I predict Dropbox is fucked once Google provides the same transparent syncing with added value of its services.

[+] Seth_Kriticos|14 years ago|reply
Considering that DropBox is building on Amazon cloud storage (S3) and Google have their native storage arrays, I'd be very worried, as Google can offer storage much cheaper.

If you check Google services (docs, mail), you get for just $5 -> 20GB of storage for a YEAR (or for $20 -> 80GB).

DropBox takes $9.99 a MONTH for 50GB, or around $120 a YEAR!

User lock-in is powerful, but if a competitor can offer a product for a magnitude less in price, I'd be friggin' worry my posterior off.

[+] ry0ohki|14 years ago|reply
I'd worry more about Bitcasa, because they are taking the same "ease of use" idea, but making it even easier and cheaper.

Google is not the best with marketing, I haven't heard of any friends using Google Deals instead of Groupon yet either.

[+] allenbrunson|14 years ago|reply
Hey, didn't you write a long blog post about quitting Hacker News? And changing your password to a random string of characters to avoid being lured back?
[+] kaushalc|14 years ago|reply
After Gdrive is out, DropBox will find it difficult to grow.

The thing about lockin might be true for existing DropBox users. But what If I am a new user and I am comparing Google and DropBox. Who do you think I will choose?

Also once google adds support to gdrive into all their existing offerings it will be difficult to compete with that.

[+] benologist|14 years ago|reply
Dropbox usage for me at least is 100% passive, it's literally just an icon in the top right that I don't click or think about.

I don't know if that holds true for any significant number of Dropbox's users but pricing and additional functionality could easily make an equivalent service more attractive for my use case.

[+] orblivion|14 years ago|reply
> They've got a small bit of lock-in if you use them a lot too, the annoyance of having to upload a large amount of files to another service.

If it works the same way as Dropbox, you'd just have to move files on your local machine from one shared directory to the other. Hell I wish all services were as easy.

[+] rokhayakebe|14 years ago|reply
Nice to see this guy back.
[+] wnight|14 years ago|reply
> They've got a product that's a joy to use, which is not something Google is known for building outside of their core competency of search.

Google is known for getting minimalism which is the most important UI element.

> the annoyance of having to upload a large amount of files to another service.

I imagine you'd just enter your Dropbox password into a migration form and have everything seamlessly pulled in. In fact, Google might even let you sync back, but Dropbox could add it easily it if not. By nature these services have to inter-operate.

[+] petenixey|14 years ago|reply
Dropbox is a brilliant piece of software however it's hard to justify more than $10/month for backup as a consumer. Since 50Gb only now covers my photos and docs, doesn't cover my music and even my photo collection's needs trimming to fit I would move to GDrive very quickly rather than double that spend to get to the next tier.

I've long hoped that Dropbox would segment their pricing plans more. It's unsettling having an increasing volume of content not backed up and if GDrive really does deliver I would move to it. My loyalty is to DB and I've yet to be convinced on GDrive's usability but it doesn't make sense to pay an extra $100/year as a loyalty fee.

[+] nhebb|14 years ago|reply
As a rule of thumb, I try to rely on Google as little as possible for important services. I don't dislike Google, but their lack of customer service makes it risky to rely too heavily on their services. I use Dropbox for syncing and backup, and since I backup files that are important to me, that rules out Google Drive.
[+] libria|14 years ago|reply
This is unexpected given their position on it before [1]:

Google was about to launch a project it had been developing for more than a year, a free cloud-based storage service called GDrive. But Sundar had concluded that it was an artifact of the style of computing that Google was about to usher out the door. He went to Bradley Horowitz, the executive in charge of the project, and said, “I don’t think we need GDrive anymore.” Horowitz asked why not. “Files are so 1990,” said Pichai. “I don’t think we need files anymore.” ... “You just want to get information into the cloud. When people use our Google Docs, there are no more files. You just start editing in the cloud, and there’s never a file.”

Are they admitting they were too ambitious? This seems to weaken the case for the mostly file-less ChromeOS and competes with their Google Storage offering.

[1] http://allthingsd.com/20110425/how-google-killed-gdrive-and-...

[+] tlogan|14 years ago|reply
Excellent find. In my company we really don't have files: everything is "cloud" (we use Google Apps and a little of box.net) and that seems as a future.

If this is true, I will be a little irritated because Google is not fixing simple things in Google Docs (like that stupid thing that all new documents are immediately saved as "Untitled" without even asking me what would be a name of documents). Now they are building something completely unrelated to what they were telling us.

[+] Corrado|14 years ago|reply
I love Dropbox and Google Drive would have a hard time getting me to switch. Dropbox seems to "get it" when it comes to simple, easy to use file synchronization.

The one area that GDrive might wiggle into is making it even easier to use Google Docs. I really like GDocs but I don't use them very much because its just not convenient to do so with local files. However, if I can "upload" a file to a directory on my machine and have it available in GDocs, that might turn the tide.

NOTE: One thing that Dropbox doesn't do well is file segregation; some files I want only on some machines. For example, I want me personal finance stuff on all my machines at home but not my work laptop. Or I want large ZIP archives on everything but my phone. Maybe GDrive will tackle this problem...

[+] T-hawk|14 years ago|reply
One thing that Dropbox doesn't do well is file segregation

Dropbox does do that. In the preferences, each folder has a checkbox for "Sync this folder to this computer"; uncheck it and the folder won't be on that device. It's marginally clunky to set up since you have to do it for each folder on each device - it doesn't have a higher level abstraction like "no large zip archives" - but the functionality is there.

[+] nextparadigms|14 years ago|reply
We could see much better syncing for Android devices for one. It would be nice if you could have the same kind of syncing that Chrome has when you log-in with your Google account, but for Android. So you could sync everything from SMS messages, photos, videos, documents, and even apps. When you buy a new Android phone, you would just login with the Gmail account, and everything would be there.

I really hope that's where they are going with this, and it's not just a rebranded Google Docs that allows you to store different file types.

[+] caf|14 years ago|reply
Your second paragraph is a really good point - if dropping a file into my GDrive-watched-folder makes it instantly accessible in Google Docs, and saving a file in Google Docs makes it appear in my local folder, then that sounds like a compelling piece of UX.
[+] Murkin|14 years ago|reply

  Google X: Is the Y party Over?
I think I seen this on HN about 4 times in the last year.

Is there any front where google managed to beat a good established product (except Android) ?

Only good thing to come out of this, is a hopeful price reduction on Dropbox..

[+] Groxx|14 years ago|reply
Only 4? I don't think you've been watching very closely. Though maybe after deduplication...

And yes: Chrome (massive bite out of both IE and Firefox's share), email (Hotmail, Yahoo Mail, etc, take your pick), and mapping being the big ones. You could probably toss in online document editing and machine-translation too.

Google seems to do reasonably well with taking over tools, and less-so for taking over primarily-user-friendly applications or features. I'm not sure Dropbox has much to worry about.

[+] tokenadult|14 years ago|reply
Is there any front where google managed to beat a good established product

Are we already forgetting about the former Web-based email products? Before Gmail came along, some of those looked like "good established products," but now I think they are all in decline, based on what I read in the industry press and observe of the behavior of my friends and professional colleagues.

[+] noobiscus|14 years ago|reply
"Is there any front where google managed to beat a good established product (except Android) ?"

Are you serious? Try WEB SEARCH.

Actually; Web Search Web Advertising Web Based Email Online Mapping

They're not exactly failing in the Browser market either.

If you stop thinking in terms of Buzz and Wave etc, Google, when entering an arena with an existing proven market to attack, have a record of becoming the big dog in the yard quite handily.

[+] Eliezer|14 years ago|reply
It's sad, because I remember when the name meant something else, but... I just wouldn't trust Google with my files. By which I mean, I wouldn't trust that I wouldn't wake up one day and find myself locked out of Google Drive with no way back. I don't trust their user interface not to accidentally delete things, either. Google manages to give the appearance of this mysterious Tronlike glowing entity that occasionally spins off new automatic services, but not in a way that gives you the impression that this glowing manifestation of Google has ever talked with a user.
[+] PotatoEngineer|14 years ago|reply
On the plus side: what are the odds that you both get locked out AND you desperately need your backups on the same day? They're both unlikely events. (You might want sync, but hopefully you won't need the backup due to a hard drive crash or some such.)

Of course, if enough people use the service, then statistically, it will happen several times.

[+] Jun8|14 years ago|reply
I think services/sites can be divided into two when considering how/if people switch between them: (i) aggregate sites whose value is a (generally nonlinear) function of all users who use the site and (ii) personal sites whose impact is just for the person who uses it. The fact that I'm using Dropbox, too, doesn't provide any value to you (except of course economies of scale)

YouTube, Flickr, YouTube, etc. are Type I sites, it's hard to switch from them to competitors because it's hard to do it individually, a large majority of the users must switch, too, creating a chicken and egg problem.

Google Search, Dropbox, etc. are of Type II. You use these sites just because they are better than the competition. As soon as this is not the case, you, individually, can easily switch. You may call these commodity sites. That's why Bing is such a big threat to Google, and Dropbox is doomed if Google comes up with cheaper plans and sync clients as good as theirs.

That being said, one shouldn't assume that Google will dominate any market they enter, they have the capability of doing do, but in practice this may not happen: putting too few people on the project, wrong design decisions, crappy clients, etc.

[+] brlewis|14 years ago|reply
You may be underestimating the prevalence of Dropbox shared folders, which make Dropbox into more type I.
[+] Hisoka|14 years ago|reply
Great point. It's easy to forget this when you're doing a tech or internet company... But you still need a defensible strategy, and some competitive advantage if you want to successful in the long term. Yes, DropBox got it right compared to others so far, but that still doesn't mean the barriers to entry are high.. give people enough time, and you'll start losing market share to another saavy competitor
[+] kenjackson|14 years ago|reply
Here is the fundamental problem of competing against Google as a SW company. Google is an advertising company, as everyone now well knows. They have no problem selling SW cheap, or giving it away for free, if they can help their advertising business (either directly by hosting ads in the service, or mining data from the service for info to help target ads).

If you feel like your SW has actual value and charge for it, but Google has you in their cross hairs, you either really need a great product (that can't easily be cloned) or very strong network effects.

While I think DropBox is a great product, and harder to clone that most people give it credit for, Google I think is the type of company that could actually nail a DropBox clone. And with GMail, Docs, and Android integration -- could be a serious force.

I must admit I'm a bit saddened that the actual value of so much good SW is ~$0.

[+] artursapek|14 years ago|reply
As a subscriber to additional storage with Google (20 GB, $5/year) I'm really happy to be reading this because it will allow me to fully use the space I've paid for. I believe it was the cheapest option when I subscribed and while I have crossed the free storage limit I have yet to fully use 20 GB.

I originally signed up for it because I was sporadically transferring a lot of high-res scans between a computer which my school owns and my own laptop, so a permanent dropbox-like folder would not have worked. Now I'll also be able to back up my music/photos dropbox-style with the same service. Smart move by Google for hitting both services, although it's kind of sad to see such a great startup being approached by the web's behemoth.

[+] crocowhile|14 years ago|reply
I keep having problems with Dropbox lately, with files that aren't synced and lots of conflicted copies. Not sure why but made me realize that Dropbox has been offering pretty much the same service for years now. Granted, the service was great from the beginning but: are they improving enough to remain competitive?
[+] pestaa|14 years ago|reply
Completely agreed. Right now the most requested feature is "watch any folder". It received the most upvotes by a great margin (30%). And it was suggested 2 years ago.

Yet there is no indication of development at all on that front (or any other for that matter.)

I really like Dropbox, but seriously will look into GDrive too.

[+] dorkitude|14 years ago|reply
Dropbox is a dominant product because they understand user experience. Google's in-house products are, increasingly, failures because they don't.

* Of course, there are a lot of smart people at Google. It's not that there aren't Googlers who understand user experience, it's that the Google organism rejects their intuition and refuses to understand it. They methodically optimize UX to a local maximum, and throw up their hands when nobody is impressed, like a Vulcan trying to compose music.

[+] abcd_f|14 years ago|reply
Alright, now. Pay attention to the existence of paid option.

The fact that GDrive has a paid option indicates that they are aiming directly at Dropbox. If they were offering a completely free option, it would implicitly make GDrive fall into another category thus increasing its distance from Dropbox. I would also guess that Google can easily make GDrive completely free, these $5 / 20Gb is not likely to be breaking or making it for them. It is a just conversion facilitator. Furthermore consider their selected price point - it means that they want to remove all doubts when one compares two paid services and to strongly entice Dropbox users to switch.

<tinhat>Google Docs must be not working as great as they would like it to. People are still not using it for interesting documents of some value, and that's a bummer. Let's try and get to these documents another way...</tinhat>

[+] anothermachine|14 years ago|reply
Google Storage for Mail/Photos/Docs/etc has been charging $5/20Gb for months already. This isn't a special GDrive thing. At this point, GDrive would be a UI cleanup for the existing content sync services they already have, not a new service.
[+] marklabedz|14 years ago|reply
If this means I can combine the seamless syncing and "available anywhere with an internet connection" of Dropbox, with the convenience of being able to make easy edits in Google Docs if I don't have access to MS Word, I'm all for it.
[+] reidbenj|14 years ago|reply
Google doesn't necessarily squeeze out all competitors in any industry they enter, but they do raise awareness. In some sense this is great for Dropbox because I would guess well under 50% of computer users even know cloud storage services like this exist...but many more will if Google enters the market.

The problem, of course, is if they all learn about it through gmail and Google captures them all, but I think that underestimates Dropbox's ability to counter.

Lastly, don't discount human laziness aiding Dropbox customer retention - time is a switching cost here.

[+] esutton|14 years ago|reply
i remember hearing the same argument when google made google videos to compete with youtube, and we all know how that ended. That said, there were social and community aspects there that don't apply here, and google's cheaper storage prices and larger feature set may give it a leg up.
[+] crag|14 years ago|reply
I (we) use Google Apps. I'm assuming this would be another service. If we ever see it. Right now, it's vaporware.

It took me months to "train" everyone in the office on how to use Dropbox. -Ok stop laughing. I'm dealing with doctors here. :) I know doctors who can perform open heart surgery but can't use iTunes.

Anyway I'd rather not go through that training nightmare again. Google is gonna have to do something really impressive.

[+] re_chief|14 years ago|reply
I dunno. I've been using Dropbox for years now, I've got it set up on all my computers, and as of right now I don't really have a pressing reason to switch. Gdrive would have to offer up something new and amazing before I'd want to change over. (And it would have to be something other than lower prices, because I don't back up enough stuff to have to pay for additional storage.)
[+] 0x12|14 years ago|reply
Should dropbox worry? Sure, not worrying would simply be stupid.

Should they be mortally afraid? No, probably not. Dropbox has a lot going for them, and one of the biggest things they've got going for them is that they are not google.

They can specialize, they can do one thing and do it well and they just had a huge company validate their market for them.

Look at omniture vs analytics of how that can play out.

[+] nickgonzo|14 years ago|reply
I'd love to see Dropbox open up their platform for developers to build applications on top of it. Seems like that could entail all sorts of things, such as solving the friction between using web apps with large files, or groups of files. Imagine dropping files in a folder and then being able to manipulate them on the web, and save them back to your folder seamlessly.