This is a very myopic view of the situation. Russia has been preparing and strategically planning exactly for such a scenario to unfold for over a decade.
They have created their own domestic equivalent of SWIFT (called SPFS) which went live in 2017 and which is connected to a handful of foreign banks including a few in Germany and in Switzerland. Whilst it is not as great, SPFS works. China has created their own SWIFT equeivalent (CIPS), and it is likely that Russia will cut over to CIPS soon and start funneling USD and EUR into China either to convert the foreign currency reserves into the Chinese yuan or simply use the Chinese financial system as a bypass / proxy.
Some years back the Putin goverenment had also forced Visa and Mastercard to make the Russian branch of their networks fully self-reliant and operational even if the financial link to the global payment networks is severed. Which means that domestically issued Visa and Mastercard cards will continue to operate domestically. They also have their own payment network operated by the major commercial bank albeit the uptake is not as great compared to Visa and MC.
Yes, there will be inflation and a financial chaos but they are prepared and are dug in deep. There will be a mayhem but it might also end up being short lived or have a fairly limited impact – we don't know yet.
> I think the world should push for this.
It is irresponsible to make such statements. Global peace has not looked so fragile and so close to turning into an irreparable mess. West is not playing its card right at the moment by continuously imposing more and more sanctions, by moving NATO troops into bordering countries and not even attempting to offer/signal its willingness to start any negotiation talks. West has fallen into the exact trap Putin had set up for it to justify the current situation and stir up cheap domestic populism and support his «see, they have ganged up on us like we have been telling you all along» rhetoric. Putin's long game is unclear but if he is resolute on the doomsday scenario or if he starts feeling cornered with no escape hatch anywhere near him, what would happen next would happen for all of us, and it would be terrible.
West can't continue to impose sanctions endlessly whilst also continuing to villify and demonise an agonising bear without attempting any currently viable alternatives. People from all sides, with no exceptions, have to start making every single attempt to get everyone to sit down around the table and talk. All parties need to start talking to each other to resolve their differences and compromise. Only talking can avert a much bigger disaster.
If you leave your enemy no way to retreat, you force them to keep fighting. It may feel satisfying to prosecute Putin. It would be justice, but it may not be wise. (I hate that it is so, but... leave him an out.)
inkyoto|4 years ago
They have created their own domestic equivalent of SWIFT (called SPFS) which went live in 2017 and which is connected to a handful of foreign banks including a few in Germany and in Switzerland. Whilst it is not as great, SPFS works. China has created their own SWIFT equeivalent (CIPS), and it is likely that Russia will cut over to CIPS soon and start funneling USD and EUR into China either to convert the foreign currency reserves into the Chinese yuan or simply use the Chinese financial system as a bypass / proxy.
Some years back the Putin goverenment had also forced Visa and Mastercard to make the Russian branch of their networks fully self-reliant and operational even if the financial link to the global payment networks is severed. Which means that domestically issued Visa and Mastercard cards will continue to operate domestically. They also have their own payment network operated by the major commercial bank albeit the uptake is not as great compared to Visa and MC.
Yes, there will be inflation and a financial chaos but they are prepared and are dug in deep. There will be a mayhem but it might also end up being short lived or have a fairly limited impact – we don't know yet.
> I think the world should push for this.
It is irresponsible to make such statements. Global peace has not looked so fragile and so close to turning into an irreparable mess. West is not playing its card right at the moment by continuously imposing more and more sanctions, by moving NATO troops into bordering countries and not even attempting to offer/signal its willingness to start any negotiation talks. West has fallen into the exact trap Putin had set up for it to justify the current situation and stir up cheap domestic populism and support his «see, they have ganged up on us like we have been telling you all along» rhetoric. Putin's long game is unclear but if he is resolute on the doomsday scenario or if he starts feeling cornered with no escape hatch anywhere near him, what would happen next would happen for all of us, and it would be terrible.
West can't continue to impose sanctions endlessly whilst also continuing to villify and demonise an agonising bear without attempting any currently viable alternatives. People from all sides, with no exceptions, have to start making every single attempt to get everyone to sit down around the table and talk. All parties need to start talking to each other to resolve their differences and compromise. Only talking can avert a much bigger disaster.
EEBio|4 years ago
West has tried dialogue so many times, postponing sanctions to the point of absurdity. And what did it get us? Putin invading Ukraine.
Putin relied on the risk-averse West, pretending to want a dialogue and withdrawing forces, while he sent even more to the Ukraine's borders.
No, there is war in Ukraine not because West didn't want a dialogue, but because West wanted a dialogue too much.
A dialogue with a bully in power, is however, often pointless.
AnimalMuppet|4 years ago
smegger001|4 years ago
tim333|4 years ago