For those wondering about what was/is Russian strategy: yesterday on a bunch of Russian media sites got auto-published and then deleted article that based on it's content was supposed to go to air as a victory lap after completion of mission: unification of Russia (Russia, Ukraine and Belarus) and solution of Ukranian question (partial translation): https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1498029060085075969 .
It does look that assumption was just to march in with no or little resistance, take over entire country in 2 days as then manage area with rosgvardia.
On additional note, this book supposedly popular in upper echelons of Russia and written by somebody who considered to be guru of putin. wiki article has short summary, but it's enough to see how it reflects some of the current realities (in Ukraine, Georgia, UK, USA). Wiki artcile has a good summary https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics
There was a really interesting article published here, auto-translated from Russian, written by a retired General before the invasion.
He basically said, a bunch of idiots keep saying we can just walk into Ukraine with shock and awe and have it all over in hours (or less) and laid out why that is idiotic.
Kind of amazing that the conversation was so public.
Really hope this is true because it probably reduces risk of more violence. If Putin was convinced to carry out the operation because some war hawks said it would be a cake walk, they will now be out of favor and the more sober and calculating Putin will realize this was all a big mistake and that further attacks will just make things worse.
Russia has no choice but to go all in with a massive ground presence and air control.
This is going to lead to excessive costs and crippling of the economy, especially with the sanctions.
The televised drama about Putin ordering special alert for nuclear facilities is a signal that he is getting desperate.
Either he was misled by yes men (most likely) or given false hopes by in-competent generals (also likely) or both.
With present successes, it is not sufficient to only have more troops on ground. An urban insurgency will bleed Russia for years.
When the people, lead by a charismatic leader showing extraordinary courage and resolve taste the motivation and identify Putin as aggressor, the war will be fought with will power. And already, Putin has come out weak when compared to Zelensky.
History will remember the hero who stood up to the tyranny of Putin and his legacy is forever tarnished.
IMO this will make-or-break based on air superiority.
Impression #1: The Ukrainian population is VERY MOTIVATED.
Impression #2: The West will supply Ukraine's population with as much infantry firepower (TOW, MANPAD, etc) as they need.
As the days go on and military supplies flood into the Ukraine from the west, resistance will increase.
Helicopters and tanks will take heavy, expensive, demoralizing losses against well coordinated anti-armor infantry defense forces.
I also think the Ukrainian population will toughen and get trained/experienced in warfare quickly. Potentially Russia is training multiple millions of soldiers on the Ukrainian side with this attack, and forming a national identity, pride, and will to fight.
The only Russian trump card in those situations is air power.
I don't think this is like Afghanistan or the Iraq/Syria smorgasborg. Ukraine is THE buffer state between Europe and Russia. They are fairly westernized. I don't think there will be any concerns with blowback terrorism by equipping the hell out of the Ukrainian army and volunteers/populace. I don't think there are nearly as many policy/cultural concerns about supplying serious infantry weapons to the Ukraine.
Even if all of Ukraine's airfields are compromised, likely Ukraine can continue air operations from Romania and the like. Would the West supply Ukraine with replacement air force? Uh, yeah.
Russia had two military hopes:
1) very fast ground total victory (doubt it at this point, why did Russia attack in winter? Because they could get a quick victory they hoped? Even Russian soldiers will have lower morale in winter operations.)
2) win air superiority to enable a ground victory long enough to get puppet regime in and the West gives up support. I think this is where we are now, and I have NO IDEA how the air war is going.
The propaganda message to his citizens is “we are here to ensure peace”. So until his helpers rewrite the message, they are acting more restrained.
But he is already preparing to apply the Grozny playbook where the city was practically razed to the ground. His excuse will be something like “we warned them and they still hid amongst the civilians, it’s their own fault”
Mentioning the nuclear threat shows some desperation. He is probably seeing some internal pressure from his corrupt business buddies.
Those thermobaric munitions also do a nice job exploding before being launched when hit by a drone. They clear out quite a large group of invaders with one well placed shot.
For the same reason they haven't carpet bombed the capital yet. The pictures would lead to everyone seeing what this invasion is really about and might even put pressure on China to condemn Putin.
However, he might be getting desperate enough:
> Russian forces are deploying additional artillery assets including thermobaric artillery to the Kharkiv axis as of February 27.
Apparently the leader of the Donetsk separatist region announced a suspension of mobilisations recently, saying no more troops are required.
And odd declaration in the middle of a war.
Either they've realised they're screwed or something unforeseen is about to happen.
On the whole, I think Putin has been reading his own press a bit - thinking the Ukrainians would roll over and in parts welcome his 'liberating' force, but instead he's getting his nose bloodied by a well armed, well trained, well coached, resilient populace and army. He's being absolutely embarrassed on the world stage by a comedian. It must be killing him.
Nothing much changed today. The russian special forces are getting wrecked and we knew the reg force troops would convoy behind. The reg forces will take tremendous losses against general mobilization. Their morale is bad now? oh man...
Dare I say, Russia is losing this? The Russian troops are much trashier than expected and/or there's some serious proxy war going on right now. Zelensky is for sure being coached by some serious folks.
Today I saw a ton of russian propaganda that didn't even make any sense. It makes me think Russia was given some pretty serious false impressions about what they started.
When the aggressor starts talking peace after only a few days of complete failure... They screwed up pretty big and they know it.
Both Western governments and private parties have been publicly showing extraordinary amounts of intelligence on Russia troop movements, disposition, and likely intentions, and I can only imagine that that Ukraine is getting much more than what is public. Limiting one side’s ability to generate surprise really shifts the balance.
Did you read the report that you posted? Russia is not losing, they are behind, and probably planned poorly/underestimated the fighting but unless things drastically change with NATO, they will cut off large parts of ukrainian defenses and eventually take the population centers. Its crazy I want Ukraine to hold out, I want Ukraine to drive them out, and if you look at reddit, and some twitter accounts you might even think Ukraine is winning, but I don't think thats whats happening.
Russia's military is acting restrained: no carpet bombing, no massive rocket strikes on population centers. I have no doubt that they will eventually capture their targets, it will just take time. Partisan war follows however, and sanctions remain in place.
[+] [-] tguvot|4 years ago|reply
This is original https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20...
It does look that assumption was just to march in with no or little resistance, take over entire country in 2 days as then manage area with rosgvardia.
On additional note, this book supposedly popular in upper echelons of Russia and written by somebody who considered to be guru of putin. wiki article has short summary, but it's enough to see how it reflects some of the current realities (in Ukraine, Georgia, UK, USA). Wiki artcile has a good summary https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics
[+] [-] ZeroGravitas|4 years ago|reply
He basically said, a bunch of idiots keep saying we can just walk into Ukraine with shock and awe and have it all over in hours (or less) and laid out why that is idiotic.
Kind of amazing that the conversation was so public.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30489422
[+] [-] officehero|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kumarvvr|4 years ago|reply
This is going to lead to excessive costs and crippling of the economy, especially with the sanctions.
The televised drama about Putin ordering special alert for nuclear facilities is a signal that he is getting desperate.
Either he was misled by yes men (most likely) or given false hopes by in-competent generals (also likely) or both.
With present successes, it is not sufficient to only have more troops on ground. An urban insurgency will bleed Russia for years.
When the people, lead by a charismatic leader showing extraordinary courage and resolve taste the motivation and identify Putin as aggressor, the war will be fought with will power. And already, Putin has come out weak when compared to Zelensky.
History will remember the hero who stood up to the tyranny of Putin and his legacy is forever tarnished.
Not a good closing chapter, Putin.
[+] [-] AtlasBarfed|4 years ago|reply
Impression #1: The Ukrainian population is VERY MOTIVATED.
Impression #2: The West will supply Ukraine's population with as much infantry firepower (TOW, MANPAD, etc) as they need.
As the days go on and military supplies flood into the Ukraine from the west, resistance will increase.
Helicopters and tanks will take heavy, expensive, demoralizing losses against well coordinated anti-armor infantry defense forces.
I also think the Ukrainian population will toughen and get trained/experienced in warfare quickly. Potentially Russia is training multiple millions of soldiers on the Ukrainian side with this attack, and forming a national identity, pride, and will to fight.
The only Russian trump card in those situations is air power.
I don't think this is like Afghanistan or the Iraq/Syria smorgasborg. Ukraine is THE buffer state between Europe and Russia. They are fairly westernized. I don't think there will be any concerns with blowback terrorism by equipping the hell out of the Ukrainian army and volunteers/populace. I don't think there are nearly as many policy/cultural concerns about supplying serious infantry weapons to the Ukraine.
Even if all of Ukraine's airfields are compromised, likely Ukraine can continue air operations from Romania and the like. Would the West supply Ukraine with replacement air force? Uh, yeah.
Russia had two military hopes:
1) very fast ground total victory (doubt it at this point, why did Russia attack in winter? Because they could get a quick victory they hoped? Even Russian soldiers will have lower morale in winter operations.)
2) win air superiority to enable a ground victory long enough to get puppet regime in and the West gives up support. I think this is where we are now, and I have NO IDEA how the air war is going.
[+] [-] sharken|4 years ago|reply
Even if Russia capture population centers, it will not stop the currently increasing number of sanctions.
Neither will installing a puppet regime, that will be seen as almost worse than an invasion.
There will never be any participation in sports as long as this invasion stands, nor will there be any travel abroad for the common Russian citizen.
It's very hard to see what Putin can do to escape this situation, except withdraw from Ukraine.
This will not be the legacy that Putin hoped for.
[+] [-] jeffrallen|4 years ago|reply
I wonder if Putin knows he's terminally ill and is just burning it all down because he's a madman.
Brain tumor? Pancreatic cancer? (Why not both?)
[+] [-] indemnity|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rdtsc|4 years ago|reply
But he is already preparing to apply the Grozny playbook where the city was practically razed to the ground. His excuse will be something like “we warned them and they still hid amongst the civilians, it’s their own fault”
Mentioning the nuclear threat shows some desperation. He is probably seeing some internal pressure from his corrupt business buddies.
Those thermobaric munitions also do a nice job exploding before being launched when hit by a drone. They clear out quite a large group of invaders with one well placed shot.
[+] [-] somedude895|4 years ago|reply
However, he might be getting desperate enough:
> Russian forces are deploying additional artillery assets including thermobaric artillery to the Kharkiv axis as of February 27.
[+] [-] poisonarena|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] PickledHotdog|4 years ago|reply
And odd declaration in the middle of a war.
Either they've realised they're screwed or something unforeseen is about to happen.
On the whole, I think Putin has been reading his own press a bit - thinking the Ukrainians would roll over and in parts welcome his 'liberating' force, but instead he's getting his nose bloodied by a well armed, well trained, well coached, resilient populace and army. He's being absolutely embarrassed on the world stage by a comedian. It must be killing him.
[+] [-] tguvot|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ukraineally|4 years ago|reply
Dare I say, Russia is losing this? The Russian troops are much trashier than expected and/or there's some serious proxy war going on right now. Zelensky is for sure being coached by some serious folks.
Today I saw a ton of russian propaganda that didn't even make any sense. It makes me think Russia was given some pretty serious false impressions about what they started.
When the aggressor starts talking peace after only a few days of complete failure... They screwed up pretty big and they know it.
[+] [-] dragonwriter|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] poisonarena|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] cft|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] axiosgunnar|4 years ago|reply
I‘m curious, like what for example?