[CheezeIt]

Crossing open water is tricky to do on short notice; they were hosting the Olympics; they have all the time in the world; the U.S. isn’t actively fighting in any war; they have domestic financial problems to focus on and a lot of room for domestic growth, which would improve their position even more; their biggest risk is regime collapse, and invading Taiwan worsens that risk.

[irrational]

Short notice? China knew the Ukraine war was coming before we did. They even asked Russia to hold off the start until after the Olympics. They weren’t caught surprised by any of this.

[CheezeIt]

They’d have to have built up troops while the Olympics were being held.