[hashimotonomora]

What is an ensemble probability of something that has never occurred and is essentially impossible to model? Have you seen all infinite alternate universes? Probability does not make sense.

Compare the following: What is the probability that you will die today?

What is the probability that you will die today given that you belong to the category of people with A_i characteristics and whose ensemble probability of dying on a given day has been measured?

[LeonB]

The insurance industry does a pretty good job of “what is the probability that you will die in the next billable period” - but they would never reduce the bet to “what is the probability that you will die today?”

You say it’s “essentially impossible to model” something that hasn’t occurred before.

Nations have engaged in a lot of wars.

Nations have engaged in a lot of wars they could not possibly win.

People have committed suicide to harm other people. Many many times.

Nations have developed weapons and then used those weapons on other people.

Countries that have engaged in arms races and stock piled weapons have then gone to war. Many times.

In some decades we do more of these things and in others we do less.

To say it’s hard to model, or the models are imperfect (as all models are) - fine. To say it is impossible to model - that’s very naive.

[hashimotonomora]

If you are lost in a city would you rather have the wrong map or no map at all?

The person that has the wrong map and thinks that it’s the right map is the one that’s naive.

Regarding insurance companies, you are conflating ensemble probabilities with time probabilities. Insurance companies can estimate the ensemble probability of an event in a group of agents which belong to a certain category and not the time probability of said event on a single agent.