[chj]

He predicted this crisis in 2014, and I think he has been quite consistent on saying Putin will act, just that Putin will not occupy Ukraine. Now there is the possibility of Russia taking the eastern part, but his main thesis is still valid: the west should leave Ukraine as a buffer state.

https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Why-t...

[tablespoon]

> He predicted this crisis in 2014...

The article you linked was written after Russia had already invaded and annexed part of Ukraine, so it's not a very impressive prediction.

[markdown]

"If you really want to wreck Russia, what you should do is to encourage it to try to conquer Ukraine. Putin is much too smart to try to do that." John Mearsheimer, 2015.

https://twitter.com/SKalyvas/status/1498073083197931529

[chj]

Today you and me can debate what "conquer" means, but if policy makers follow his advice, this war won't happen at all. I think that's what really matters.