One thing is sure: if China still wants to invade Taiwan, they certainly have postponed their plans by a few years, maybe a decade, maybe even more.
The attempted invasion of Ukraine by Russia just reminded people that the best war plans don't survive the first contact with the enemy (apparently stated by the Prussian general Moltke), or in the more folksy words of Mike Tyson, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.
In 2014, Russia achieved a military miracle: they took over Crimea so quickly and without loss of blood, that they delivered a "fait accompli". Oh, how much would China like to replicate that in Taiwan. And that's what they were preparing for.
But now, in 2022, the latest example of an attempted invasion shows that things can still go astray. Why? No doubt China will analyze everything and try to see if they are in danger of experiencing the same problems. But the overall learned lesson will still be that no matter how much you plan, you can still encounter huge obstacles when you start a war.
And the world response in terms of economic sanctions was unbelievable. Definitely, not something China wants.
If anything the prospect of WW3 because of a Chinese miscalculation vis-a-vis Taiwan went down considerably.
I legitimately don't understand where all these "Ukraine is obviously winning" takes are coming from.
If Ukraine was doing well, it wouldn't be giving out weapons to civilians [0], forming penal battalions [1], or lie about receiving NATO planes. [2]
If Ukraine was doing well, it wouldn't be inflating death counts to be larger than the US involvement in Afghanistan, a 20 year period of time. [3,4]
If Ukraine was doing well, they wouldn't need to make up a story about the Ghosts of Kyiv. [5,6]
I am utterly utterly perplexed. Where is any semblance of proof that Russia is doing badly? They seem to be encircling the capital and winning city after city. It's only two weeks in. Did we expect better after the early adrenaline rush? Do they benefit from being told this? Are we just being setup to be told this is a Pyrrhic victory for the Russians?
One thing is sure: if China still wants to invade Taiwan, they certainly have postponed their plans by a few years, maybe a decade, maybe even more.
How can you be so certain? This reminds me of people saying just 14 days ago "I don't think Putin is going to invade."
Taiwan is not Ukraine, indeed -- Taiwan would be easier to capture because it is an island. There aren't land borders across which supplies and weapons can be brought. They would have to come by ship or plane, which are easier to defeat. It would be easier, militarily, to take Taiwan. China certainly has the will, and it has learned that the worst it would face would be some sanctions.
Not really. PRC war/political plans for TW has always assumed worst case scenario of US intervention. Any TW plan is a US deterrence plan foremost, which if successful opens up various options for TW from blockade to full out invasion. TW can be dismantled at leisure as long as PRC can deter US.
The real question is whether PRC will take "half measure" options off the table and skip straight to leveling the island. UKR military improvements since 2014 thanks to western support is basically the porcupine model US has been pushing on TW. As was expanding US/NATO security architecture to trigger current "fighting to the last Ukrainian" strategy. Which has has pushed RU from "special operations" that would have spared most of the population to scorched earth. We'll have to see if UKR/TW thinks that's worth it once frank appraisal occurs when/if this war ends. This could very be a decade long war that turns most of Ukraine into Yemen. Except much harder for TW as an island not self sufficient in anything to support a prolonged insurgency.
In the meantime, PRC has learned that US/NATO will not interdict directly when you have 6000 nukes instead of just 300. That most of major non-west resource exporters have remained neutral. There's also opportunity a prolonged war will divide US attention across Atlantic again. Better to push sooner when US military has not pivoted and TW is still at UKR 2014 levels of ill preparedness - many of potentially lessons and developments that could push TW scenario sooner instead of delay it.
MANPADS, ATGM, and drones like the Bayraktar have now been shown to be much more effective than the same cost investment into aircraft, tanks and artillery. In addition the united international condemnation and sanctions have been greater than I think everyone imagined. China may conclude that Russian strategic goals would have been better served by maintaining their credible threat of invasion rather than actually invading, and adjust their strategy accordingly. But Russia is not China ...
> One thing is sure: if China still wants to invade Taiwan, they certainly have postponed their plans by a few years, maybe a decade, maybe even more.
Not necessarily. CPC is still waiting to see what the US and NATO do in response to the Russian invasion, and especially Putin's threats of nuclear escalation.
If China perceives that all the West will do is sanctions on Russia, but no direct military intervention to prevent a democratic country from being taken over by force, then China will deduce that nuclear saber rattling is enough to ensure the US won't intervene in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
That may lead them to accelerate their plans to do just that, to accomplish it during a time that 1) Western leadership is easily deterred by nuclear threats, 2) the Chinese Navy has more ships than the US Navy, and 3) US and NATO are divided into fighting a 2-front war.
CPC is also waiting to see the full extent of sanctions on and potential decoupling with Russia, how far the West will go in that regard. If CPC believes they could survive the same, again they'll be encouraged to accelerate their Taiwain plans.
The jury's still out, but it's not a given that events have already decelerated CPC's intent to invade Taiwan. That's still up in the air.
Right the other way. It would be the perfect timing for China. Do you think the west can afford sanctioning the shit out of China now? They can't even sanction Russia properly. Do you think China prefer to wait that the west figured their shit out to depend less on other countries? Plus now Russia, Belarus, depends so much from China... and I bet many other countries are thinking of getting the fuck away from the west financial system, considering how weak that make them, especially now that there's real alternative market / system emerging independently from the west.
Most of all, Taiwan is a very strategic country, because of microchips production. Considering the sanctions (Apple, Intel, AMD, Samsung, Microsoft, Lenovo, Dell, probably more, are not selling in Russia anymore) Imagine the leverage that Taiwan would give to China, and the solution it would be for Russia.
I would be very surprised that Taiwan is not next. Everything is pushing in that direction.
Edit: As other mentioned, the outcome in Ukraine is certainly a big factor, but even if Russia fails somehow, I'm not sure that it wouldn't even make it more important for China to get Taiwan...
>In 2014, Russia achieved a military miracle: they took over Crimea so quickly and without loss of blood, that they delivered a "fait accompli". Oh, how much would China like to replicate that in Taiwan. And that's what they were preparing for.
That only seems like a miracle because you need to do more research into what Crimea actually is.
Crimea was never actually part of Ukraine, only a paper "gift" to Ukranian SSR way back when, negligible amounts of ethnic Ukrainians live there. Nearly the entire jurisdiction is employed supporting the mostly russian tourist industry, or actual russian military, their Black Sea fleet.
There were simply no other outcomes possible. It was a defacto Russian territory, with a token Ukranian security force against an entire Russian Black Sea fleet, and tens of thousands sailors and marines. It seems that even Ukraine itself didn't wholeheartedly consider Crimea it's own territory, essentially no resistance whatsoever.
But this war in Ukraine showed one simple truth: if you arm the population, the invasion can only destroy the infrastructure. You can't win over people's minds by killing their loved ones, their neighboors. And you can't keep it under control if every citizen has a gun. You install a puppet government, they will be dead within a week.
This is the only way to protect Taiwan. Give them guns and ammo. And teach them that killing invaders is the only way to keep their freedom and not fall under the totalitarian communist regime of China.
> But this war in Ukraine showed one simple truth: if you arm the population, the invasion can only destroy the infrastructure.
There are no simple conclusions about what is happening right now in Ukraine, and it is a fool's errand to declare any kind of conclusion 10 days into an invasion which already displaced millions of people and in which almost every major Ukrainian city is under siege teetering on the edge.
Russia's economy destroyed? Ukraine successfully resisted the invasion? All Russia can do is destroy infrastructure?
All those jumping to conclusions regarding the Ukraine situation remind me of Bush standing in front of a Mission Accomplished banner after 20 days of the Iraq invasion.
The "population" hasn't been armed. A small amount of people in some areas were armed. And fighting age men have been conscripted. If the goal of the invasion was to destroy infrastructure, that would have happened last week. Armed population or not.
Taiwan is completely different from Ukraine culturally, and I don't think simply blanket arming people is a solution there either. Big difference being that the Ukrainian standard of living, even under Zelensky has been bad. If you are simply surviving, taking up arms is a much easier sell. If you are comfortable and well off, you have a lot more to lose. If Xi is smart, which he is- he will attempt to take over Taiwan via political means. I don't think he will attempt to repeat the Hong Kong approach with an entire country, when he already has pro Chinese political entities within Taiwan.
> teach them that killing invaders is the only way to keep their freedom and not fall under the totalitarian
First you need to convince people that the value of freedom is actually worth the cost. Based on what I've seen for the past two years, many people do not value freedom, even in the United States. They'd rather be comfortable than free. The cost of freedom is often everything for those that actually choose it. The benefits are only realized by the next generation.
It's been mind boggling to see anti 2A people in my social circle cheer for normal Ukrainian citizens arming themselves with "weapons of war" that "wouldn't do anything against a country with drones and nukes." I hope a silver lining of this conflict is remembering that protecting your life and your family's lives with firearms is an inalienable right.
They have guns, the two parties warred before. In fact, there was never a formal peace agreement so the war is technically still going on.
The asymmetry is in the economics. Taiwan can realistically be strangled by China. This has seemed like the plan from Beijing. Once politically weak, you can take over with sock puppets.
It has been a week. I'm not sure we can be assured small arms to locals will do much at all.
What has happened in Ukraine seems to be that Ukraine's military was more capable / motivated and Russia's military MUCH LESS capable / motivated than anyone expected.
While this sentiment resonates with me, and probably many Americans, I'm not entirely sure that it would resonate with Taiwanese culture. Even if it did, any attempt to arm Taiwanese citizens is likely to draw a lot of opposition from China.
The situation in Taiwan is different. There are polls in the past indicating non-negligible amount of Taiwanese (I forgot the numbers, but IIRC it is closer to 50-50 split than only a small fraction) support “merging back” to China. (That was before 2019 Hong Kong incident though.)
"USIP was established by Congress in 1984 as an independent institution devoted to the nonviolent prevention and mitigation of deadly conflict abroad."
In 2011 they almost lost their funding. Although, with budget of 39mln and 300 staff they are pretty lean operation it seems.
Their staff seem to be mostly active in the Middle East, Africa and East Asia.
,,Beijing’s calculus vis-à-vis the use of force against Taipei can change, so the world must continually monitor the situation and remain alert to warnings and indicators.
Part of this monitoring must include scrutinizing Chinese assessments of Russia’s performance in Ukraine in the coming weeks, months and years.''
The invasion of Taiwan would require a massive amphibious assault across a sea full of hostile submarines. You couldn't hide all the ships required from satellites. And China's economy depends heavily on trade with the west-aligned world.
But for some reason, China is massively expanding its navy, with lots of amphibious ships along with advanced weaponry that would be a serious problem for the US.
It goes both ways. The current supply chain crisis already demonstrated how reliant EVERYONE is on Chinese manufacturing. No politician would dare to sanction China when it means immediate runaway inflation.
Russia didn't hide their military buildup, they just lied and gaslit the world via their various disinformation channels into believing that Putin would have to be insane to actually invade.
China would very much prefer that Taiwan ask to reunite with the mainland. Forcing them back one day might be in the cards but setting the conditions to where Taiwan sees being part of China as being the better option than relying on the United States for its safety is what China would like to happen. Finding ways to drive wedges between the US and Taiwan is a part of this strategy.
Much of these analyses are useless unless you put domestic politics into calculation.
If Xi wants to invade Taiwan, 90% is based on his power fight within the party, not the geopolitics.
One crucial part of Xi's ruling is that Xi has not appointed his successor yet. Xi wants to stay. Does invading Taiwan help or hurt him to stay longer? That's his calculation.
One significant omission from this comparison: the Ukraine:Russia population ratio (~0.285) is almost TWENTY TIMES as large as the Taiwan:PRC ratio (~0.0163). The Ukraine:Russia ratio is almost as large as the ratio between the Confederacy's non-slave population and the Union's population at the time the US Civil War broke out; and I suspect that some overly optimistic Russian military planners did not properly account for this. So, although it is harder for the PRC to invade Taiwan than it is for Russia to invade Ukraine for a number of reasons, I expect it to be more difficult for Russia to keep most of Ukraine pacified even if they do achieve their primary military objectives.
Russia benefits from disruption and chaos: it causes fuel prices to spike. China benefits from stability: it ensures people can and want to buy all the stuff they manufacture.
Russia asserts the right of strong nations to meddle in any nation that can't resist them. China asserts the right of every nation to territorial integrity and freedom from internal meddling by, e.g., democracy and human rights activists. (To be fair, Putin also hates these people, but clearly thinks Russia itself should be free to meddle in other nations' internal affairs.)
They are drawn together by their opposition to the West and in particular the US, and by their contiguity, but they aren't otherwise natural allies.
Meh, I'm getting very tired of these types of articles. Why is it so hard to simply admit that it's really hard if not impossible to predict complex things like this?
The types of people that write these articles also believed at one time:
- China becoming capitalist would cause it to become a liberal democracy
- Globalization would be amazing for everyone everywhere
- The Afghan army would be able to stand up to the Taliban
- Russia would not invade the Ukraine, but on the off chance they did, they'd roll right over the country in no time at all.
The fact is when it comes to this kind of stuff, we just don't know and we probably never will. That's just the nature of complexity. You miss one minor detail or some tiny assumption or some "unknown unknown" is off and the whole intellectual scaffolding comes down.
I suspect china is looking at this and thinking a number of things:
1) It needs to control banking infra (it has a messaging system similar to swift already)
2) Putin is acting even more boldly than normal (I suspect it was assuming that he would try and fully annex donbas & Luhansk and a bit more, then wait another few years to try again)
3) The Russian bear that is it's land army really isn't that great. The modernisation hasn't stretched to tactics or maintenance.
4) Russia shares a decent land border with china, might need to think again about the security there.
Sure Xi and Putin are "best buddies" but real politik > than friendship for dictators.
I don't need an analysis to know that China already has planned its invasion, but waiting for the right time.
Russia, China (CCP), Iran, Belarus, Venezuela, Cuba...the modern axis of evil. What do they have in common? Communism: the most deadly and hypocritical ideology in human history.
For those unfamiliar with Belarus: the leader Lukashenko is a communist that wishes the revival of the Soviet Union.
For those unfamiliar with communism, it's basically a few power hungry leaders that tell the people they'll build a fair and equitable utopia, but end up with absolute power, and killing or torturing all opposition.
[+] [-] credit_guy|4 years ago|reply
The attempted invasion of Ukraine by Russia just reminded people that the best war plans don't survive the first contact with the enemy (apparently stated by the Prussian general Moltke), or in the more folksy words of Mike Tyson, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.
In 2014, Russia achieved a military miracle: they took over Crimea so quickly and without loss of blood, that they delivered a "fait accompli". Oh, how much would China like to replicate that in Taiwan. And that's what they were preparing for.
But now, in 2022, the latest example of an attempted invasion shows that things can still go astray. Why? No doubt China will analyze everything and try to see if they are in danger of experiencing the same problems. But the overall learned lesson will still be that no matter how much you plan, you can still encounter huge obstacles when you start a war.
And the world response in terms of economic sanctions was unbelievable. Definitely, not something China wants.
If anything the prospect of WW3 because of a Chinese miscalculation vis-a-vis Taiwan went down considerably.
[+] [-] bingohbangoh|4 years ago|reply
If Ukraine was doing well, it wouldn't be giving out weapons to civilians [0], forming penal battalions [1], or lie about receiving NATO planes. [2]
If Ukraine was doing well, it wouldn't be inflating death counts to be larger than the US involvement in Afghanistan, a 20 year period of time. [3,4]
If Ukraine was doing well, they wouldn't need to make up a story about the Ghosts of Kyiv. [5,6]
I am utterly utterly perplexed. Where is any semblance of proof that Russia is doing badly? They seem to be encircling the capital and winning city after city. It's only two weeks in. Did we expect better after the early adrenaline rush? Do they benefit from being told this? Are we just being setup to be told this is a Pyrrhic victory for the Russians?
[0]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/26/ukraine-russ... [1]: https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-releases-prisoners-combat-e... [2]: https://www.newsweek.com/eu-ukraine-fighter-jet-promise-fall... [3]: https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-oon-kst-gertv-boyovyh-do... [4]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Afghanistan_(2001%E2%80... [5]: https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-ukraines-ghost-of-kyiv-figh... [6]: https://twitter.com/KFCBarstool/status/1497366093362520065?s...
[+] [-] kerneloftruth|4 years ago|reply
Taiwan is not Ukraine, indeed -- Taiwan would be easier to capture because it is an island. There aren't land borders across which supplies and weapons can be brought. They would have to come by ship or plane, which are easier to defeat. It would be easier, militarily, to take Taiwan. China certainly has the will, and it has learned that the worst it would face would be some sanctions.
[+] [-] dirtyid|4 years ago|reply
The real question is whether PRC will take "half measure" options off the table and skip straight to leveling the island. UKR military improvements since 2014 thanks to western support is basically the porcupine model US has been pushing on TW. As was expanding US/NATO security architecture to trigger current "fighting to the last Ukrainian" strategy. Which has has pushed RU from "special operations" that would have spared most of the population to scorched earth. We'll have to see if UKR/TW thinks that's worth it once frank appraisal occurs when/if this war ends. This could very be a decade long war that turns most of Ukraine into Yemen. Except much harder for TW as an island not self sufficient in anything to support a prolonged insurgency.
In the meantime, PRC has learned that US/NATO will not interdict directly when you have 6000 nukes instead of just 300. That most of major non-west resource exporters have remained neutral. There's also opportunity a prolonged war will divide US attention across Atlantic again. Better to push sooner when US military has not pivoted and TW is still at UKR 2014 levels of ill preparedness - many of potentially lessons and developments that could push TW scenario sooner instead of delay it.
[+] [-] ipnon|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] SkyMarshal|4 years ago|reply
Not necessarily. CPC is still waiting to see what the US and NATO do in response to the Russian invasion, and especially Putin's threats of nuclear escalation.
If China perceives that all the West will do is sanctions on Russia, but no direct military intervention to prevent a democratic country from being taken over by force, then China will deduce that nuclear saber rattling is enough to ensure the US won't intervene in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
That may lead them to accelerate their plans to do just that, to accomplish it during a time that 1) Western leadership is easily deterred by nuclear threats, 2) the Chinese Navy has more ships than the US Navy, and 3) US and NATO are divided into fighting a 2-front war.
CPC is also waiting to see the full extent of sanctions on and potential decoupling with Russia, how far the West will go in that regard. If CPC believes they could survive the same, again they'll be encouraged to accelerate their Taiwain plans.
The jury's still out, but it's not a given that events have already decelerated CPC's intent to invade Taiwan. That's still up in the air.
[+] [-] audessuscest|4 years ago|reply
Most of all, Taiwan is a very strategic country, because of microchips production. Considering the sanctions (Apple, Intel, AMD, Samsung, Microsoft, Lenovo, Dell, probably more, are not selling in Russia anymore) Imagine the leverage that Taiwan would give to China, and the solution it would be for Russia.
I would be very surprised that Taiwan is not next. Everything is pushing in that direction.
Edit: As other mentioned, the outcome in Ukraine is certainly a big factor, but even if Russia fails somehow, I'm not sure that it wouldn't even make it more important for China to get Taiwan...
[+] [-] internet_user|4 years ago|reply
That only seems like a miracle because you need to do more research into what Crimea actually is.
Crimea was never actually part of Ukraine, only a paper "gift" to Ukranian SSR way back when, negligible amounts of ethnic Ukrainians live there. Nearly the entire jurisdiction is employed supporting the mostly russian tourist industry, or actual russian military, their Black Sea fleet.
There were simply no other outcomes possible. It was a defacto Russian territory, with a token Ukranian security force against an entire Russian Black Sea fleet, and tens of thousands sailors and marines. It seems that even Ukraine itself didn't wholeheartedly consider Crimea it's own territory, essentially no resistance whatsoever.
[+] [-] 2-718-281-828|4 years ago|reply
Or how Mike Tyson puts it: "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."
[+] [-] bufferoverflow|4 years ago|reply
This is the only way to protect Taiwan. Give them guns and ammo. And teach them that killing invaders is the only way to keep their freedom and not fall under the totalitarian communist regime of China.
[+] [-] qqtt|4 years ago|reply
There are no simple conclusions about what is happening right now in Ukraine, and it is a fool's errand to declare any kind of conclusion 10 days into an invasion which already displaced millions of people and in which almost every major Ukrainian city is under siege teetering on the edge.
Russia's economy destroyed? Ukraine successfully resisted the invasion? All Russia can do is destroy infrastructure?
All those jumping to conclusions regarding the Ukraine situation remind me of Bush standing in front of a Mission Accomplished banner after 20 days of the Iraq invasion.
[+] [-] yonaguska|4 years ago|reply
Taiwan is completely different from Ukraine culturally, and I don't think simply blanket arming people is a solution there either. Big difference being that the Ukrainian standard of living, even under Zelensky has been bad. If you are simply surviving, taking up arms is a much easier sell. If you are comfortable and well off, you have a lot more to lose. If Xi is smart, which he is- he will attempt to take over Taiwan via political means. I don't think he will attempt to repeat the Hong Kong approach with an entire country, when he already has pro Chinese political entities within Taiwan.
> teach them that killing invaders is the only way to keep their freedom and not fall under the totalitarian
First you need to convince people that the value of freedom is actually worth the cost. Based on what I've seen for the past two years, many people do not value freedom, even in the United States. They'd rather be comfortable than free. The cost of freedom is often everything for those that actually choose it. The benefits are only realized by the next generation.
[+] [-] daenz|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sharikous|4 years ago|reply
You can't extrapolate such a far fetched conclusion from one data point on how string the Ukraunian resistance seems in the first weeks of a war.
[+] [-] toxik|4 years ago|reply
The asymmetry is in the economics. Taiwan can realistically be strangled by China. This has seemed like the plan from Beijing. Once politically weak, you can take over with sock puppets.
[+] [-] duxup|4 years ago|reply
What has happened in Ukraine seems to be that Ukraine's military was more capable / motivated and Russia's military MUCH LESS capable / motivated than anyone expected.
[+] [-] yosito|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] KolenCh|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] spaetzleesser|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] slim|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] GoodJokes|4 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] SmileyJames|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] antattack|4 years ago|reply
"USIP was established by Congress in 1984 as an independent institution devoted to the nonviolent prevention and mitigation of deadly conflict abroad."
In 2011 they almost lost their funding. Although, with budget of 39mln and 300 staff they are pretty lean operation it seems.
Their staff seem to be mostly active in the Middle East, Africa and East Asia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Institute_of_Pea...
[+] [-] xiphias2|4 years ago|reply
,,Beijing’s calculus vis-à-vis the use of force against Taipei can change, so the world must continually monitor the situation and remain alert to warnings and indicators.
Part of this monitoring must include scrutinizing Chinese assessments of Russia’s performance in Ukraine in the coming weeks, months and years.''
[+] [-] stickfigure|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] DennisP|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dixie_land|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] BbzzbB|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] manachar|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Mountain_Skies|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] belter|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] stale2002|4 years ago|reply
If that is the strategy, then it is failing.
Taiwan is more anti-unification than it has ever been, and the people there already consider themselves to be an independent country.
[+] [-] narag|4 years ago|reply
Also the bottom line: is it wise to have deals with someone that's not accountable to their own people?
What about Xi being replaced by someone with a different personality? While it's about a country's interests, there's another kind of stability.
[+] [-] temp8964|4 years ago|reply
If Xi wants to invade Taiwan, 90% is based on his power fight within the party, not the geopolitics.
One crucial part of Xi's ruling is that Xi has not appointed his successor yet. Xi wants to stay. Does invading Taiwan help or hurt him to stay longer? That's his calculation.
[+] [-] atlantas|4 years ago|reply
If China invades Taiwan, will Apple and Disney exit China as they did with Russia?
[+] [-] davidjytang|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] fatjokes|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] chrchang523|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|4 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] DFHippie|4 years ago|reply
Russia asserts the right of strong nations to meddle in any nation that can't resist them. China asserts the right of every nation to territorial integrity and freedom from internal meddling by, e.g., democracy and human rights activists. (To be fair, Putin also hates these people, but clearly thinks Russia itself should be free to meddle in other nations' internal affairs.)
They are drawn together by their opposition to the West and in particular the US, and by their contiguity, but they aren't otherwise natural allies.
[+] [-] hackerfromthefu|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mrlonglong|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rdtwo|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tharne|4 years ago|reply
The types of people that write these articles also believed at one time:
- China becoming capitalist would cause it to become a liberal democracy
- Globalization would be amazing for everyone everywhere
- The Afghan army would be able to stand up to the Taliban
- Russia would not invade the Ukraine, but on the off chance they did, they'd roll right over the country in no time at all.
The fact is when it comes to this kind of stuff, we just don't know and we probably never will. That's just the nature of complexity. You miss one minor detail or some tiny assumption or some "unknown unknown" is off and the whole intellectual scaffolding comes down.
[+] [-] cudgy|4 years ago|reply
Is this really a popular analogy?
[+] [-] KaiserPro|4 years ago|reply
1) It needs to control banking infra (it has a messaging system similar to swift already)
2) Putin is acting even more boldly than normal (I suspect it was assuming that he would try and fully annex donbas & Luhansk and a bit more, then wait another few years to try again)
3) The Russian bear that is it's land army really isn't that great. The modernisation hasn't stretched to tactics or maintenance.
4) Russia shares a decent land border with china, might need to think again about the security there.
Sure Xi and Putin are "best buddies" but real politik > than friendship for dictators.
[+] [-] hereme888|4 years ago|reply
Russia, China (CCP), Iran, Belarus, Venezuela, Cuba...the modern axis of evil. What do they have in common? Communism: the most deadly and hypocritical ideology in human history.
For those unfamiliar with Belarus: the leader Lukashenko is a communist that wishes the revival of the Soviet Union.
For those unfamiliar with communism, it's basically a few power hungry leaders that tell the people they'll build a fair and equitable utopia, but end up with absolute power, and killing or torturing all opposition.
[+] [-] steve76|4 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] mk81|4 years ago|reply
[deleted]