[overkalix]

I might very well be mistaken, but this war and Russia's belligerence during the last 10 years never seemed to me a matter of ambition and territorial expansion, but rather desperation. Putin is 70, and his death will certainly plunge Russia into a period of turmoil. It doesn't matter if a successor is anointed by big P himself. The democratic opposition will see it as an opportunity for reform. The political and military elites will be fighting each other to advance their position. I'd be surprised if after Putin's death the Russian state could settle for a coherent agenda and foreign strategy within a decade.

The last time Russians found themselves in a similar position, NATO and the EU showed up at their doorstep. Baltic countries, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria... all of them joined NATO and/or EU in quick succession.

That's what I think Putin is trying to prevent. So the goal is to either have loyal buffer states (e.g. Belarus, Kazakhstan) or leave "unruly" buffer states (Georgia, Ukraine) in such state of destruction and disarray, that after Putin's death, Russia could get back on its feet before those states could focus again on entering international alliances. In other worlds, if I need 10 years to recover, I'll make sure you need 20 years, even if it adds a couple of years to my tally.

Of course this need of keeping NATO at bay exists only if the economic and political strategy of the state is to be an international gun for hire. It's a pity that the Russian elites decided to go for the easy buck with gas and military instead of developing the huge technical and artistic talent of the Russian people.

The irony is, after Iraq's invasion, NATO was incredibly unpopular in many European countries, and actions against Russia were seen as undesirable. I think fellow Europeans will agree that we saw Russia as an authoritarian state with old-fashioned values, but we were hopeful that one day we could have shared institutions and deeper political and economic cooperation. Now a lot of my fellow citizens perceive Russia as a direct enemy.

[ChuckNorris89]

>The last time Russians found themselves in a similar position, NATO and the EU showed up at their doorstep. Baltic countries, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria... all of them joined NATO and/or EU in quick succession.

NATO and the EU did not show up at their doorsteps. Baltic and Eastern European states willingly joined NATO and the EU seeking better economic opportunities than what they had under Russian imposed communism and protection against future Russian aggression.

NATO didn't invade those countries under special military operations but those countries joined willingly since it was in their best interest and despite the EU's and NATO's faults, they're better alternatives than living in the fear of Russian aggression where the sate can imprison you for saying stuff against state approved propaganda and living in constant poverty and corruption.

Eastern Europe has ~50 years worth of scars to prove how vile such regimes were. That's why they were so eager to join NATO and the EU at the first chance they got and they flourished quiet well after that economically and socially. And Ukrainians wanted the same for their country since 2014, not living as Russia's puppet state forever.

[overkalix]

The decision of those countries is perfectly legitimate (and in hindsight a very good one, seeing how Putin instrumentalizes Russian minorities).

But my point is, before the soviet collapse Russia didn't have a lot of shared borders with NATO countries. Now they do. If Ukraine, Moldova (who knows, maybe one day Belarus) end up joining NATO or the EU, this will considerably hinder their power projection capabilities. Expanding on McCain's analogy, Russia is a sketchy gas station where you can hire bruisers.

[ChuckNorris89]

>Putin is 70, and his death will certainly plunge Russia into a period of turmoil.

As if Russia is currently a bastion of stability.

It's only stable now because everyone is afraid of being gulaged if they speak up, similar to a lighter version of the purge in the Stalin days.

[overkalix]

Well, now you're just being obtuse. Putin just got into an incredibly expensive war, and protests are marginal at best. This is achieved through repression and violence, but if you don't think that is stability, you're deluded.