[current_thing]

From the been-there-done-that department:

* Sitting in a beach chair gets old in one or two weeks. Use the time to skill up: spend a few hours a day building something, or do a masters degree or short term course - maybe somewhere picturesque in Europe.

* Starting up is going to burn you out more than you are now. And possibly in addition to being burnt out you will have much less money than you do now.

* You will find another job unless you quit into the start of the recession.. then you have hiring freezes all around and you might need to take a sh*y job or work with sh*y people.

* Even if the bubble doesn't pop - for your next gig its unlikely you come in from a position of strength. They WILL low ball your comp on your next job. HR scum have seen this movie enough times.

* Boredom breeds a gambling habit. Don't use your free time to trade exciting markets.

* Cut up your credit cards. Its super easy to pile up "just a months income when I get back to work".

* Put half your money into a long term investment account. Put the rest in a cash account. Never eat into that long term account. When the cash account goes to 10% of what you started with drop everything and begin searching for paid work.

* Be accountable to yourself. Try to something meaningful to show for yourself when you're done.

[second--shift]

> maybe somewhere picturesque in Europe.

This is the daydream that keeps me going now.

I think you have some salient points; I would stay busy in the sense of making things (software) while I'm away.

> You will find another job unless you quit into the start of the recession..

This is probably what I fear, and why I'm asking around. With the inflation & supply chain issues recently, and with the current yield curve inversion, at least in a short-to-medium term sense I think the music is going to stop soon. But macro-economies are cyclical and although bad stuff spreads quickly, I don't think software specifically will have much of a dip even if some other economic sectors do.

I wasn't a professional in 2000-2003 after that downturn, but I was online during that time & witnessed the steady decline of "tech". I'm cautious of the "this time it's different" thesis, but the analog-only lifestyle that was possible in 2000 isn't what people do today - there will be long-term demand for what we/I do (this is my opinion).

To address the point directly: I think if we are starting a recession now-ish, in 6 months' time the subsequent upswing might already be starting - I recall Apr - Sept 2020. I'm confident that I'm average-or-above, which should guarantee work somewhere. If the recession starts in 6 months, I have another 6 months' runway still comfortably, and I can start the search early. I recall in previous recessions companies are still hiring developers.

> Boredom breeds a gambling habit. Don't use your free time to trade exciting markets.

This is sound advice; I only gamble in the sense of a family-and-friends regular poker night. I buy bonds & index funds on a set schedule otherwise in markets. I'm not attracted to gambling; I've met people who are, I don't think it's me. But like you say, don't take chances.

> Be accountable to yourself. Try to something meaningful to show for yourself when you're done.

It sounds like based on yours and other commentary, if the "me" time is successful, I should have artifacts to show it. The time off shouldn't represent a material issue during the subsequent job search. Since you say you have personal experience, what is your anecdote? what did you do, what would you have done differently?

[current_thing]

Maybe apply to YC or some other seed stage fund with your best idea once you spend a few months developing the concept and talking to potential customers. By the time the process completes you should be well recharged too.

My startup was funded through revenues from day zero, the world entered a recession soon after, and that was a motherf** hard grind. Spending other peoples risk capital would be easier on yourself.