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The frenzied world of rare watches

69 points| adam | 3 years ago |vanityfair.com

140 comments

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zucked|3 years ago

I came into collecting modest watches around 2010. There was certainly a renewed interest in mechanical watches at the time, a lot of it being driven by things like MaleFashionAdvice on Reddit. I believe MFA had a significant hand in rescuing Seiko from obscurity with the SNK809 and SKX007. Old Seiko mechanical chronographs like the 6139 could be had readily for less than a thousand dollars. I had a beautifully restored one I bought and sold for around $300. The same watch is worth at least three times that today.

At that time, it was still possible to acquire steel Rolexes at "modest" prices. As a goal to celebrate my (future) career achievements, I set my sights on a birth year Submariner - which were attainable at the $3,500+ price points at that time.

You can't really buy a Submariner for less than $10k today. As mentioned in the article, Rolex dealers and others play crazy games where stainless models are virtually unobtanium. Even trickle down brands (Tudor, for example) have ridden the wave. I can no longer afford, nor do I want to afford, a birth year submariner. To me, the beauty in those watches is that they are tools; they were built to serve a purpose.

I ended up lucking into a Tudor Pelagos Left Hand Drive. The ultimate tool watch - light titanium, great lume, etc. I wear it. I wear it hard. It's been with me for dozens of life momentous events. When the watch craze passes, I hope I can pass it down to my kiddo as a reminder of my existence.

ubermonkey|3 years ago

Re: built for a purpose, I think a lot of folks today just see Rolex as a luxury brand, but when Sean Connery walked out of the waves in Dr No wearing a Rolex, it was because it was precisely the sort of robust, fault-tolerant timepiece a super-spy WOULD wear. Moreover, back then, they weren't NEARLY so expensive. Rolex's prices have drastically outpaced inflation FOR SURE.

I had thought I'd buy a Subbie, too, but even at the turn of the century they had gotten a bit nuts. I opted for a Seamaster instead, at HALF the price.

>I can pass it down to my kiddo

As I noted uptopic, my first fancy watch was a 1970s Rolex I inherited from MY dad. Someone will inherit it from me. My friend C. has his grandfather's steel Rolex; his son will inherit that one.

That's a nice thing about mechs you can't really get out of electronics.

randomcarbloke|3 years ago

You absolutely can get a sub for sub $10k, new (if you're willing to go on the waiting list and buy your dealer a bottle of something special), or old if you don't have a specific vintage in mind.

vgeek|3 years ago

If you like lume, check out tritium watches from companies like Luminox or Traser. They have automatics that are reasonably priced and are super utilitarian. Most of their models are field or divers, so they may fit your preferences.

animalgonzales|3 years ago

this. the speculation around watches right now is completely unhinged. my Rolex Date 34mm sold for $3k in excellent condition three years ago. the same watch now sells for nearly $6k.

UmYeahNo|3 years ago

I've been a fan of budget Seiko mechanical watches from the 60's and 70's. Most of the time they run well, servicing isn't terribly expensive, and you can get them for usually a few hundred dollars, maybe a grand for a really nice specimen. What's cool about them is you can decipher the serial number [0] to the month and year they were made, so they can commemorate an event, even if it happened a long time ago. But you do have to watch out for counterfeits. [1]

[0] https://retroseiko.com/seiko-serial.htm [1] https://www.watchesguild.com/articles/Fake-Seiko-Watch

Edited to fix grammar

ilamont|3 years ago

I am a fan of another Japanese watch brand, Citizen, particularly the Eco-Drive models. Solar powered, very durable, and they look great. Prices range from $100 for basic models to over $3000 for the Hakuto-R (there is some connection to the Japanese lunar mission, https://www.citizenwatch.com/us/en/product/CC4016-75E.html). Most Citizen watches are water resistant as well.

I've had one model running continuously for 12 years. I love never having to charge it or change the battery.

jacquesm|3 years ago

I have one of these, a '5' and it still keeps time just fine after many years. It's a completely mechanical watch, no batteries to replace and no frills. It will likely outlive me.

ubermonkey|3 years ago

I wore exclusively mechanical watches for most of my life, starting with a Rolex I inherited from my dad in the mid-80s.

When he bought it, Rolex wasn't yet as insanely upmarket as they've become. It was kind of the obvious token of upper-middle-class success of the era. Dad's is the two-tone DateJust on what Rolex calls a "Jubilee" bracelet, and you've seen the color scheme and overall look on a million knock-off Citizens and Seikos.

Rolex SAYS you're supposed to service these annually, but even when I wore it daily I didn't do that. I think it's been serviced maybe 3 or 4 times since I've had it; aside from a replaced mainspring a few years back, it runs fine and keeps time as good as any mechanical. That's kind of the appeal of Rolex, or at least it was in the 60s and 70s: they're VERY VERY robust, so you especially see them on wrists of successful people in jobs that would be hard on a less robust watch. (Thinks chefs, or contractors, or -- like my dad -- veterinarians.)

I had a good dot-com era and bought a couple of my own, but nothing in precious metals or super expensive. And then, a few years ago, I was training for a half marathon and wanted a running device with GPS. I ended up with a gen-1 Apple Watch, and the damn thing was so HANDY that I upgraded to a fancier (steel, sapphire crystal) model for Series 3, and now I almost never wear the fancy mechanicals. I still LOVE them -- it's very cool that humans figured out how to keep time using springs and gears! -- but for day to day wear, it's almost always the Apple now.

MarkMarine|3 years ago

Opposite for me. I don’t like wearing a watch in the evening, and I always forgot to charge the Apple Watch because it would be by the sink where I prepped dinner or somewhere. I never have to worry about charging my mechanical. I wear a brand that people obsessed with watches that appreciate don’t care about (so they lose value) but are mechanically “perfect.” Not a status symbol, I don’t have to worry about wearing it on vacation or anything. It’s a prized possession because of it’s utility.

Alex3917|3 years ago

Watches are a good example of the fact that, past a certain point, the only thing you can really do with money is paying other people to do your hobbies for you. Like you could learn how to make mechanical watches yourself, but wait, no, why not pay someone else to take up that hobby for you.

At the same time, if you actually like doing your own hobbies then money loses its utility pretty quickly.

kop316|3 years ago

After skimming through a large portion of George Daniel's book "Watchmaking", if anything, I very much appreciate how complicated making a mechanical watch is, and even more so, how easy it is to get things wrong. From what I saw, you have to have a lot of tooks to make your own mechanical watch, and it would not be something I would want to do without someone skilled in the craft.

That is a long way of saying, I am confused on how making a mechanical watch is a "hobby"?

havelhovel|3 years ago

Like many things in the present day, a mechanical watch of the quality or provenance being discussed in this article is not something that can be built in one’s spare time as a hobby, which means consumption is the only option for some truly interesting wrist baubles. And even though I refuse to call watch collecting a hobby, doing so doesn’t preclude one from having other hobbies or interests where one may take on a more active role. The reality is some people can afford to have nice (or stupid) things while also having balanced fulfilling lives.

nightski|3 years ago

In my experience hobbies are typically far more expensive than paying someone else to do it purely due to economies of scale.

throw8383833jj|3 years ago

I'm a newbie on this subject. can you really make your own watch? don't you need to buy all the pieces for it? or need a blacksmith shop or something? how much would it cost for someone to build a watch from scratch with no workshop or prior pieces on hand?

randomcarbloke|3 years ago

I mean I can paint a picture but it's not going to be any good, and I don't think I'd want to put it on my wall.

My kids won't want it when I die either.

That's with <$100 of materials...would you spend thousands on precious metals when you have no idea how to run a watchmaking lathe? a truly handmade watch takes around 5,000 hours and that's if you know what you're doing.

lunaru|3 years ago

A rare watch is an IYKYK item and the iconic pieces are immediately noticeable from across the room. I do wonder if the deflation in asset prices (driven by increase in interest rates) will put downward pressure on some of the craziness right now.

But for someone who is outside looking in, and wondering what the fuss is all about: A watch, especially Patek Philippe is much better for signaling status to those you want to send that signal to, while completely being unnoticeable by an audience from whom you don't want negative attention. At the same time, it appreciates like fine art that you can take with you on your wrist. It has a lot of the characteristics of investment assets that are desirable.

It's crypto v0.1.

anjel|3 years ago

See also the booming Rep (replica) Watch scene, where $100-300 gets you a very passable knockoff PP that signals the same, especially from across the room.

In California, IYKYK, but so do the streeet thugs. $200k is a nice payoff for 30 seconds worth of risk.¹

[1]https://archive.ph/MY0Hb

nightowl_games|3 years ago

I bought a Casio F91W so I can turn my phone off at night and use the watch for an alarm clock. I'm happy to have the most popular watch in the world. It's simple, cheap, reliable, and has a retro look that has grown on me.

NikolaNovak|3 years ago

When I "got into watches" a decade ago, I got a bunch of interesting looking ones from Gearbest I think (today it'd be Aliexpress). Mechanical, quartz, retro, futuristic, large & small, multi-dial crazy kitchy contraptions and plain classy ones. Got it happily in and out of my system for couple of hundred bucks total, probably 12-18 or so different pieces :). Don't understand paying more than, say $300-400 for a watch, absolute MAX - I think there's a point up to which you get more reliability/features/functionality, and a point after which you don't.

My favourite / most expensive watch is still the Citizen BlueAngel Navihawk (gift when I was taking flight lessons before my enthusiasm phase). It's also however by far the most finicky / least reliable of the bunch, so go figure :-/

blakesterz|3 years ago

I guess it's like any other collectable, just way WAY more expensive. Though I'm not sure what's lost by wearing it?

  "Such market conditions have presented a dilemma for collectors who actually want to show off their popular models, knowing the message that will send to other connoisseurs. “If you wear them, you’re an idiot, ” says one collector. “Either you paid five times retail, or you bought it retail and you’re too stupid to have flipped it.”"

blantonl|3 years ago

"too stupid to have flipped it"

What a time to be alive when you're called stupid for not being a greedy "playa" flipper.

Maybe some folks who waited on a waiting list for a couple years want to wear a watch they purchased in good health?

prova_modena|3 years ago

Again like you said, the reason not to wear is nothing specific to watches. At the high end of collectibles markets, condition grading is extremely fine and detailed. A knowledgeable person can see the difference between something that has never left the box and something that was used/worn once. Additionally, there's often a substantial value difference between a #1 condition item and a #2 condition item. As the participants in any collector market become more sophisticated, condition difference between individual items becomes both more legible (as grading methods are created) and has a greater effect on value (as the market expands).

There's also a sort of status game being described in the part you quoted. Self-identified collectors/dealers intentionally don't wear their collection in order to signal their understanding of the watches' value and therefore their own knowledge as connoisseurs.

Aea|3 years ago

You're risking damage, you're risking theft, you're paying higher insurance premiums in either case, etc, etc.

waynesonfire|3 years ago

Oh, and let me guess, the collector would happily take the watch off their hands? Who's the idiot?

smackeyacky|3 years ago

I have been watching a lot of youtube videos from "wristwatch revival", Marshall has an oddly soothing, breezy voiceover as he services mechanical watches. Its kind of like Bob Ross.

The workmanship in even prosaic mechanical watches is neat to see as he disassembles them.

thom|3 years ago

It was a weird crossing of streams when I first saw his watch channel, because I'd only known him as a Magic: the Gathering commentator and streamer. I can't even say "better known" given the relative subscriber numbers.

randomhodler84|3 years ago

What is the allure of these things? They keep worse time that an ntp synced phone, have no internet connectivity and few features.

It’s all conspicuous consumption, right? If you know, you know — a way to signal wealth without being too brazen.

maigret|3 years ago

Did you never want something because it’s nice and inspiring? A sports car, a big Lego, a cap of your sport hero, a computer full of LED? Did you want this only to impress others? Have you had such a watch on your wrist and felt how it wore? Once you start learning about how those are built etc this becomes a small hobby that’s very nice to enjoy in all the trouble nowadays. Of course some wealthy people will buy those just because they can afford them, but those are not the collector enthusiasts who built the watch culture that allowed those brands to grow to where they are now.

Watch enthusiasts will say all tech is conspicuous consumption because it lasts so little and loses value very quick. There is little more sustainable than a Rolex that still wears nice after 50 years, and can probably hold 100 if taken care of.

kop316|3 years ago

>What is the allure of these things?

I like having something well made, looks nice, and will last on the order of decades. I also like not having something attached to my wrist that tries to grab my attention for every email, text, call, etc. that I get.

> They keep worse time that an ntp synced phone

There is nothing in my life that requires me to be in sync to a precision beyond +/- 30 seconds.

> have no internet connectivity and few features

Some folks (like myself) view that as a feature, not a bug. I actually like walking around without something constantly on my person that is always internet connected.

Helitio|3 years ago

It's about appreciation of the craft itself.

Those watches have a fundamental cultural value to us.

Keeping time is now very easy and cheap but those watches reflect the history of keeping time.

And there is a tremendous amount of craftsmanship in them. Older ones are only handmade and even modern watches from high class manufacturer are still made by watchmakers.

No one buys them if they don't care or don't have the money.

Those watches have a lot of personal skill embedded in them.

It reflects the opposite of mass production.

Feel free to look for good watchmaker docus on yt.

smackeyacky|3 years ago

Mechanical watches are fun. You can buy something like an Invicta with a display back for $100 and see the moving parts as it runs. Sure you have to adjust the time, wind it etc. But that is part of the charm. Like a chunky, pre digital reminder of the past.

PyWoody|3 years ago

For me it's that there is no tech involved in a mechanical watch. No screen. No buttons. No perfectly kept time. If I don't wind it, it dies.

The watch I'm wearing on my wrist is virtually indistinguishable from one created over a hundred years ago. I think that's just neat.

thraway3837|3 years ago

Fact is that jewelry wouldn’t be a “hobby” if no one ever saw you wear it. You can espouse all the needless complexity and pass it down value, but it’s all make believe weird “you can tell a lot about a man by the watch he wears” BS.

throw8383833jj|3 years ago

and i'm surprised people still want to signal wealth, this day and age. I would imagine you'd be treated worse by the average person, if you're signaling wealth.

goodpoint|3 years ago

Conspicuous consumption and showing off status symbols.

mperham|3 years ago

The best are engineering marvels and last generations. Art with a practical purpose.

overtonwhy|3 years ago

Ultra wealthy people obsessed with fancy jewelry while 12% of the world doesn't have electricity at home. Sad. Please put your resources to work doing something beneficial for society. Maybe this film scene can move your heart: https://youtu.be/W9vj2Wf57rQ

How many lives could that watch have saved?

anm89|3 years ago

What a cartoonish view.

tempnow987|3 years ago

I'm a big fan of timex analog watches (not mechanical) for what its worth. They are much much less expensive than any of these here.

adamomada|3 years ago

You just reminded me, the other day I learned that Bill Gates, a man who could presumably have any watch in the world he wanted, has (or had recently) a $50 quartz diver made by Casio on his wrist. It’s actually a pretty nice-looking watch, too (Casio Duro)

bri3d|3 years ago

Cars are in the exact same place. Everything, even "mid-range" or "practical" cars, has gone ballistic valuation-wise, and owners are left trying to figure out whether to drive their cars or mothball them.

pmoriarty|3 years ago

I wonder how many of these are counterfeit.

bri3d|3 years ago

I think that amongst the "high end," counterfeits are probably not that common. Dealers tend to have a reputation to maintain and even the best clones are easily distinguishable once the case-back is opened up and the movement inspected.

There are a few rare Rolex models with "1:1" clones which can have an authentic movement installed. There may be some "high profile" counterfeits of these pieces floating around, but it's hard to say.

I think that in the mid-market, counterfeits are probably more common than we would hope. Modern Rolex and especially Panerai clones are quite good, far from the Canal Street "folex" type watches of old. I bet that a large number of Panerai watches seen worn are fake. Panerai have an especially major problem with this because for years, they used commodity movements from ETA, sometimes lightly decorated (although sometimes not - see the "Brooklyn Bridge" Panerai scandal), rather than proprietary movements like Rolex. So movements were widely cloned, and for an even more accurate copy, one could engrave an authentic ETA movement with the Panerai finish and have an extremely difficult fake.

This hobby is surprisingly open and very interesting - you can find forums like Replica Watch Info or /r/RepTime and learn in great detail the specific, minute differences between each replica factory's attempt at a counterfeit vs. the original.

anm89|3 years ago

Watches are high status beanie babies.

cletus|3 years ago

So I really like mechanical watches but I've kind of lost interest because it's nigh-on impossible to buy anything new (unless you're a high net worth individual) and the secondary market is utterly insane.

Example: Rolex Daytona in steel retails for ~$13,000. You can buy that from the store and immediately sell it on the secondary market for $30,000+. The Patel Phillippe Nautilus 5711A is similar ($25-30,000 retail, $75,000+ secondary).

As it happens when the current Rolex Daytona came out a few years ago the market wasn't anywhere near as hot and the market was flooded with people flipping the old model for the new. I happened to buy one of the old Daytonas for $10,000. Last time I checked it sells on the secondary market for $35,000. It's nuts.

For anyone who is interested in this, the plae I would start is with only these two brands: Rolex (first) and Patel Phillippe (second). They completely dominate any sort of demand and have a healthy secondary market. With vintage watches you get into all sorts of weird preferences that make massive differences in value and some of those details can be pretty minor (eg rail dials [1]). Some go for astronomical prices, most notably the Paul Newman Daytonas [2], which are funny because when they were production watches they typically sat on shelves for years because no one wanted them.

It's a fascinating world because what you discover is that Rolex are absolute masters of brand management. Like they are absolutely second to none. Omega, for example, produces some high quality watches, sometimes much better than the Rolex equivalent from a pure utility POV (eg Planet Ocean over DSSD). But Omega produces too many watches and too many models. Rolex quite famously has very limited product lines, which is fantastic for a secondary market. Rolex watches really are almost as liquid as cash.

The other interesting thing is you get into the pedigree and history of each of these watches. For example, GMT watches came about in the 1960s to solve a need as pilots started crossing time zones. The Daytona was for race car drivers. Submariners were (and are) for divers. Sure they'r emore of a fashion item now but the history is fascinating.

[1]: https://www.bobswatches.com/rolex-blog/resources/rolex-rail-...

[2]: https://www.bobswatches.com/paul-newman-rolex-daytona

ilamont|3 years ago

Some go for astronomical prices, most notably the Paul Newman Daytonas [2], which are funny because when they were production watches they typically sat on shelves for years because no one wanted them.

There was an episode of Antiques Roadshow where someone brought in one of these in new condition. I think the story was he had purchased it at the military Px in the late 60s and then it ended up in safe deposit box for many decades. When the auction expert told him it was worth $400k he literally fell down in shock.

ETA: $500k. He bought it in the early 70s. https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/tv/2020/01/29/a...

NikolaNovak|3 years ago

>>So I really like mechanical watches but I've kind of lost interest because it's nigh-on impossible to buy anything new (unless you're a high net worth individual)

As a sanity/reality check, I think we really really need to distinguish "Mechanical Watch" (which can be gotten for as low as $25USD for a crappy cheap but functional and self-winding mechanical piece), and "Rolex" :->

anm89|3 years ago

> You can buy that from the store and immediately sell it on the secondary market for $30,000+

This obviously can't be the full story. I'm fairly confident you didn't just discover an infinite money glitch. Whereas if it is what you are describing it that's exactly what it would be.

adamdusty|3 years ago

Bulova has dozens of amazing automatic pieces on their site for under $1000, many under $500.

RichardHeart|3 years ago

I've got $8M of watches. Their utility to me is just to brag about them. Which is funny, because I'm only met with downvotes whenever I do :). But therein lies the rub. At a distance, people hate, but up close, they love. It's a perceived distance to cooperation. There's ingroup profit in hate at a distance. But when you can join a better in group, or add a new asset to the one you're in, it turns to love. Thus, I consider collectibles of all forms, a combination of social value plus a dash of scarcity mindset. Also, I believe the top is in, and watch values will go down along side equities with rising interest rates.

zmgsabst|3 years ago

“I have two retirements worth of watches” is obviously the kind of bragging that puts people off.

It’s purely a show of higher social status which reminds them of suffering in their own life — and how they will be unable to retire no matter how hard they work. You’re making a triviality of their entire struggle in life.

That kind of garish wealth display has led to the downfall and deaths of many aristocrats throughout history.

clpm4j|3 years ago

https://richardheart.com/ Are you for real? You look like someone straight out of central casting for the next ponzi scheme docu-series on Netflix.

iamben|3 years ago

That's great! Do you have a favourite? Do you store them or wear them? What's your daily driver?

To a much lesser extent (financially!) I was a bit of a sneakerhead. I still have unworn pairs but recently I've made a thing of wearing everything I own (because life is short!). But man, I horded! So curious about your collection though!

dendriti|3 years ago

I feel sorry for you.

mynameishere|3 years ago

That's nice. I've got $8M of baseball cards. Says right here in this book.