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The Great Tech War Of 2012

118 points| ssclafani | 14 years ago |fastcompany.com | reply

43 comments

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[+] SoftwareMaven|14 years ago|reply
Apple doesn't believe that niche exists [the 7" tablet], but you can bet it will if the Kindle Fire succeeds.

I hear this a lot, and I always think it discredits the authors analysis of Apple. Apple doesn't think there is a product worth making at 7", which is far different than there not being a market.

Apple also thought Netbooks weren't worth making (worst of both worlds). That didn't mean there wasn't a market or a niche, but that Apple doesn't rush to fill a void because other people have a product that is selling there.

Apple doesn't think about marketing like other companies. And they don't create products to "counter" other products. They create the products that they think are perfect.

That said, i do think there is a market. There are times I wish I had a 7" iPad. Not often, but occasionally. I would probably buy two of them to keep around the house for the kids to use.

[+] 0x12|14 years ago|reply
> They create the products that they think are perfect.

They create those products that they believe will make them the most money.

No apple product ever built past or present was 'perfect' when it was released, but it was more than good enough and typically a notch or two above the competition with an associated price tag.

[+] mikeryan|14 years ago|reply
I'm I the only one who doesn't place Facebook in the class as Amazon/Google/Apple?

Maybe, someday, but not quite yet.

[+] johnyzee|14 years ago|reply
Agreed. For all the hype, pre-IPO valuation and talent draining, Facebook has done surprisingly little worthy of attention for several years now.
[+] exit|14 years ago|reply
the article admits that..

> In some ways, it's unfair to compare Facebook to Amazon, Apple, and Google. While Facebook's growth is impressive, its actual numbers barely register next to the other three: Facebook is reported to have made $1.6 billion during the first half of 2011 (about double what it made in the first half of 2010), but Apple makes that much in nine days.

[+] nimblegorilla|14 years ago|reply
I was thinking the same thing. The other three have their hand in software, hardware, and media. Facebook still seems like just a media company.
[+] reemrevnivek|14 years ago|reply
The vertical control of Apple (most notably) as well as Amazon and Google is almost complete. The author noted that they don't have:

1. Billing/banking control - Purchases on all three go through credit cards, where a portion gets siphoned off.

2. Internet access control - Apple has a lot of clout, and can do basically whatever they want, but they're still limited by the ISPs and telecos.

I really hope to see these companies compete in these industries. However, he left off one more space where they don't compete: at the bottom of the stack, selling silicon. Companies like Samsung and Toshiba can build their own SoCs for the devices they manufacture. If those manufacturers start doing more internally, we might see some impressive and competitive new devices.

[+] cube13|14 years ago|reply
I don't think that any of the three are willing to try to integrate billing directly instead of relying on Paypal, Visa, etc. It's a regulatory minefield between all the world governments, and the % that the payment processors take is probably very much worth the costs that would otherwise be taken from keeping such a system working.

I'm sure Apple and Google have explored it, but in the end, found that the current payment processors provide both a level of service(Visa's payment backend, as far as I can tell, has never suffered non-scheduled downtime) and help avoid all the regulatory pitfalls that it's worth the price.

[+] fleitz|14 years ago|reply
And while these 4 duke it out a new competitor will emerge and change the game completely.
[+] revorad|14 years ago|reply
And that's the reason, reading story after story about the big 4 on HN is getting so boring to me. No doubt they make amazing products, but these are giant corporations now. Siri, G+, Timeline, Kindle Fire are all fascinating products, but they don't excite me nearly as much as a simple app made by a fledgling two person startup.
[+] bergie|14 years ago|reply
It looks like Microsoft is trying hard to pivot and be that competitor
[+] evanjacobs|14 years ago|reply
I'm really surprised that there was almost no mention about the competition between these companies for hiring engineers. If there is indeed a "tech war" coming (and I believe there is) then the company with the biggest and best army of engineers will win and there is a fierce competition among these companies to build those armies.
[+] YetAnotherAlias|14 years ago|reply
I guess it is not surprising anymore, but I couldn't help wondering about Microsoft being left out of consideration. Would love to here thoughts about how, and if, MS will compete among these companies.
[+] tsotha|14 years ago|reply
The xbox puts Microsoft in a better position than Apple for control of the television. I don't think you can count them out at all.
[+] FilterJoe|14 years ago|reply
Agreed. While clearly not leaders in hardware, Microsoft's entrenched position in the enterprise means you can never count them out. They have a history of arriving very late to a game, getting it wrong a few times, but finally getting it right to gain the #1 position. I guess it's just hard to see now given some of the recent high profile failures like Zune and the meager gains in Bing market share after spending so many billions. But what about expanding upon their strong foothold in the living room with Xbox and Kinect?
[+] Apocryphon|14 years ago|reply
MS is definitely a competitor, but the article seems to be saying that they lack the energy and freshness of these four.
[+] algorithms|14 years ago|reply
Guess the launch of Android 4.0 in two days will show us where we're going.

It basically decides the future for 3 major products: Smartphones Tablets Google TV (this could be a LARGE market if they find the right partners)

Add to that the fact that big G will probably try to push Google+ even further with this new generation and this makes the event more important than any previous Google Keynote.

[+] chris_dcosta|14 years ago|reply
Most of what Facebook and Google do is thanks to advertising revenue, with variations on the theme.

If something comes along to take that away, a start-up with a new business model, then data becomes the thing that has value for them. Here, privacy issues get racked up so both Google and Facebook would start to look shaky if that happened too, and there are signs.

That's where Amazon and Apple are both superior. They've never been based solely based on an advertising business model, if they get revenue with iAds it's a bonus. It's the fact that they control their market places which is important. And they have what people want to buy.

[+] exit|14 years ago|reply
> Zuckerberg is even maturing into a capable presenter. Compared to Bezos, Cook, and Page, he's most adept at mimicking Jobs's singular skills, and comes off as infectiously visionary when unveiling a new product.

really?

[+] redthrowaway|14 years ago|reply
I had the same reaction, but you have to keep in mind the company he's in. Cook's iPhone presentation struck me as fine but uninspiring, I've never seen Bezos give a presentation, and Larry's... not good in public. I still can't stand Zuck, but at least he hasn't had any more "hoody moments".
[+] ethank|14 years ago|reply
More interesting than the holistic ecosystem/platform war is who among these four will join efforts to counter the other two?
[+] redthrowaway|14 years ago|reply
Outside of possibly Amazon-Google, I don't see anyone joining up. Google hates Facebook, Apple hates Google, neither has integrated facebook into their mobile OS, and everyone seems content to ignore Amazon. We'll see how that changes with the introduction of the Fire, but I can't see facebook moving beyond their niche, and there's too much direct competition between Apple-Google and Apple-Amazon to allow for a partnership between anyone other than Google and Amazon.
[+] Apocryphon|14 years ago|reply
I think more interesting is what outside major players will jump in. Facebook and Microsoft have some good ties.
[+] suivix|14 years ago|reply
Why is Steve Jobs's face in the first pic? Sorry if this is too insensitive, but he won't be involved in the 'Great Tech War of 2012'.
[+] SoftwareMaven|14 years ago|reply
To be fair, he is still pretty iconic as the guy who really ramped up the war. I'll give them the benefit of that doubt.
[+] bergie|14 years ago|reply
quite a bit of the article reads like it was written before his death, and then only hastily revised (mentions of Steve Jobs doing things in future tense, etc)