Just a personal anecdote to provide some context of how hot it really is.
I'm from the south of India and now live in Europe. My body tolerates heat
quite well compared to my European friends. I remember tolerating 38-40C indoor temperatures and sleeping through it with heavy sweating. But air temperature of 42C is where I draw the line. It is almost biologically impossible to survive this.
So this story isn't just about record high temperatures, it's about record high temperatures that coincide with biological limits. If air temperature reaches 44C, it's impossible to survive this without artificial cooling and I predict a state of emergency will be declared every summer starting 2030.
There's one additional factor. The hottest months in the equator are June to August. This happens to coincide with the monsoon season in India. So I remember dreading May but looking forward to the monsoon in June. If climate change messes with the monsoon season, the Indian subcontinent is f'ed.
These reflect nearly all the sunlight energy and cool their surroundings night and day by controlled black body emmisive radiation. (interestingly, for cooling applications, per unit area they are more power efficient than solar panels + AC, because solar only is working during the day, whereas passive cooling films also work at night)
I live in a suburb of Delhi and to be honest it is not just the occasional days that it stays that high.
This year it has consistently been above 40C since late March. Summer has just started and the hottest months are generally May and June. So, it is going stay like this for more than three months this year in all.
Even worse is that unlike desert regions, even the night temperatures here stay above 30C many times during this part of the year. Sometimes you open the window at night expecting it to be better only to realize that a hot "breeze" is blowing.
Owing to the pandemic, I had spent the last couple of years in the foothills of the Himalaya where the temperature rarely went beyond 30C. It has been really hard coping up with the heat as it literally sucks the life out of you.
> If air temperature reaches 44C, it's impossible to survive this without artificial cooling
Humidity is the other key factor though.
When younger I remember a day of walking all around Phoenix for many hours on a day where it was 122F (50C) and while it felt like being inside an oven, it was ok because humidity was close to 0%.
But high humidity with high temperatures is what makes it unsurvivable.
I grew up in Las Vegas where summer would hit 120-124 F. Very dry heat. Sometimes in August it would rain for a day. Then moved to Arizona where it would hit 125 F once in awhile. Melt your brain.
Instead of relying solely on air conditioning, which often adds to greenhouse gas emissions if run on fossil power, there are a number of passive solar design strategies that work without additional energy:
- Solar chimneys draw cool air in when it’s sunny via pressure differential
- Building orientation along with natural shading from deciduous trees prevent excessive solar insolation heating the building
- Building on top of a thermal slab to provide enough thermal inertia to prevent excessive heat during the day
Somehow this has been lost over the years. I can especially see this in Zürich Switzerland where new office buildings being built are awful and there seems little thinking about temperature. Everything is managed by complex air systems to move air from one area to the other.
On the other hand you go into a 200+ year old building and you notice it's cool in summer although there is no air conditioning. The building is positioned in such a way that it stays cool for the most of the day, the walls and windows are placed to optimized for this. It's not 100% but if you added a cooling system you would have a perfect setup.
We rely to much on technology to build these ugly boxes instead of also considering the building shape and position itself.
I deployed my own design (not calculated, eyeballed) of a buoyancy based passive cooling at my parents home near Mumbai, India. It did make a measured difference of approximately (temperature meters aren't very accurate) 2 degrees Celsius. I have been reading a lot in my spare time and your blog looks like a nice read.
My point is, is 2 to 3 degrees Celsius enough? From what I read is that I need to really move very large columns of air to make a sizeable impact. TBF my energy bills did come down by ~10%
Very good ideas but as far as India goes, adoption might have to consider monsoon, winter-snow in some, which again might require more tweaks based on more tests.
Another aspect is how real-estate and building construction works in India, across rural and urban regions.Some of the regions have strong clouts of companies that control building/development in urban spaces, while supplies and other aspects in rural region.
Can see the realties changing and newer construction projects taking in newer & greener designs, in both urban and rural regions, but its got a long way to go!
Thanks for the excellent resource. A big part of this problem is self inflicted.
We used to have thick mud walled houses which stayed cool during scorching heat. People who could afford would go with stone constructions. Things such as sun and wind direction were also considered while constructing the houses. All that knowledge is discarded in favour of high rising concrete jungles.
But all that is replaced with concrete based constructions with almost no insulations. This makes inside even more uncomfortable than outside once the wall have absorbed heat. Commercial construction is even worse with lots of glass.
Spanish houses are made of ventilated brick without insulation so they stay really nice even when outside temps are touching 40C.
Of course the price to pay is it's 'freezing' between Jan-March.
> there are street vendors in major cities selling special fruit that supposedly helps protect people from the potentially damaging effects of above-normal temperatures. [...] "Instead of the regular synthetic fruits, you know, the ready-made fruit juice which is harm[ful] to the health, these are good for your health as well and these are the only way that you can manage the heat."
What's this mysterious special fruit the article strangely forgets to name?
I thought the rest of the article was equally lousy.
Quoting Death Valley temperature as only “99F” to make a point that Delhi is really fricking hot at this time. Well, Death Valley currently isn’t at its peak temperature and the summer has barely begun. It’s also not experiencing a heat wave.
As some other comments have mentioned, South Asia has this concept of hot and cold foods that basically map to one of the sides of the four humors[0]. This classification seeks to define what the reaction of the body is upon ingesting the food/drink and I've always somewhat associated it with foods that can be inflammatory (hot) vs more neutral refreshing drinks (cold). Interesting to see it mentioned on HN
I read it and I thought it was pretty dumb. Much much too optimistic for my understanding of the situation.
My main gripe with it was that it leaves the reader thinking that climate change can be combatted with sensibility and reason. The idea that our global elites will come to their senses if we shove a few incidents in front of their faces goes against the fundamental narcissistic arc western civilization is currently enamored with.
The world he presents is predominantly western and China barely gets a mention. While he does start off in India most of it takes place in Switzerland, a country that doesn't really matter all that much for the climate. He's American, so he probably thinks China is inherently a bad place where stupid things happen. But I don't know why one wouldn't center a fictitious future of climate change there, and worse leave it out entirely. It's civilization is ascending while western white European culture is obviously descending.
I don't want my criticism of the book to lie entirely on Robinson's euro-centrism, but it is my primary complaint. Not because this makes the book racist, and I'm not accusing Robinson of that, but because it shows how Robinson's limited view of the world shapes his fiction. He gives us a white saviour story primarily taking place in Switzerland and yet claims to be speaking to the world. It's just dumb.
If there is anybody who sees Indian domestic news and/or articles, could you tell us whether there is any political impetus there to start spraying climate-modifying aerosols at high altitudes regardless of effectiveness and/or international opinion, or if it's completely outside of the Indian overton window?
And here in the western world, people still don't like using public transport and their bikes (when they can).
It's difficult to be optimistic, but it seems there is nothing that will truly limit fossil fuel consumption.
Maybe some oil producing countries could get in some sort of alliance, and artificially limit the amount of oil they extract, in return for subsidies? Those countries could also put a tariff on oil.
The fact that cars manufacturers don't even try to increase MPG, by reducing the engine size and car weight, is also quite hilarious.
Leave it to HN to recommend cool(-ing) technology to indians when the world is on fucking fire because of their own apathy towards the policies of their own governments.
Hah was about to comment this very thing. Probably won't be as destructive as the one in the book yet this time, but give it a few years and it's geoengineering time.
Several times in the past 20 years I have seen the heat index break 50C[1] and it is normal to experience >95F temperature at near 100% humidity in the summertime.
The issue with the Minnesotan climate (in both winter and summer) is that there is no moderating coastal effect for thousands of miles and it is possible for heat (and cold) to "pool" in that center of the continent.
My understanding - and also my personal experience - is that Minnesota summers are a few degrees away from being life-threatening.
It should be noted that AccuWeather is a very problematic source when it comes to any topic related to climate change. They were spreading outright climate denial in the past and have spread misinformation downplaying climate change since:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/08/09/accuweathe...
This text is problematic as well. It mentions climate change twice, but frames it as the personal opinion of some people that there's a relation between heat waves and climate change.
A grim thought, but in 50 years time when a lot of the planet is uninhabitably hot, does that reduce emissions, by virtue of, you know, there not being people to stoke the fires?
There is a force in the opposite direction, because all the tree carbon and soil carbon currently stored in those areas will likely burn or decay, increasing total atmospheric carbon. Also permafrost melting will release huge amounts of methane. Lots of positive feedback loops that will be going independent of burning fossil fuels.
It's probably not that simple. If you have food shortages and displaced populations as a result in climate change, then you might get an increase in poverty. More poverty means less education, and less access to things like birth control. So you could see somewhat of an acceleration in population growth and energy demand as a result.
Reducing emissions may not have the effect you might think.
First, once the CO2 is in the atmosphere, it stays there for a very long time (centuries to millennia). So stopping emissions would not stop the heat.
Second, emissions also contain sulfer dioxide, which has a cooling effect through the formation of sulfate aerosols. These do not stay in the atmosphere for very long (only weeks). So in a scenario where these emissions stop, the immediate result would be a loss of that cooling effect and thus even more heat.
Well, India is a pretty big place, so I'm sure there are some nice smelling places out of the way here and there. But yeah I bet some of the cities smell about as unpleasant as any other city under a heat wave.
[+] [-] iknownothow|3 years ago|reply
I'm from the south of India and now live in Europe. My body tolerates heat quite well compared to my European friends. I remember tolerating 38-40C indoor temperatures and sleeping through it with heavy sweating. But air temperature of 42C is where I draw the line. It is almost biologically impossible to survive this.
So this story isn't just about record high temperatures, it's about record high temperatures that coincide with biological limits. If air temperature reaches 44C, it's impossible to survive this without artificial cooling and I predict a state of emergency will be declared every summer starting 2030.
There's one additional factor. The hottest months in the equator are June to August. This happens to coincide with the monsoon season in India. So I remember dreading May but looking forward to the monsoon in June. If climate change messes with the monsoon season, the Indian subcontinent is f'ed.
[+] [-] mensetmanusman|3 years ago|reply
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature
If I were in a position of decision making in India, I would invest in large deployments of passive radiative cooling films: https://www.3m.com/3M/en_US/energy-conservation-us/applicati...
These reflect nearly all the sunlight energy and cool their surroundings night and day by controlled black body emmisive radiation. (interestingly, for cooling applications, per unit area they are more power efficient than solar panels + AC, because solar only is working during the day, whereas passive cooling films also work at night)
[+] [-] akrain|3 years ago|reply
Owing to the pandemic, I had spent the last couple of years in the foothills of the Himalaya where the temperature rarely went beyond 30C. It has been really hard coping up with the heat as it literally sucks the life out of you.
Ref: https://www.accuweather.com/en/in/delhi/202396/april-weather...
[+] [-] jjav|3 years ago|reply
Humidity is the other key factor though.
When younger I remember a day of walking all around Phoenix for many hours on a day where it was 122F (50C) and while it felt like being inside an oven, it was ok because humidity was close to 0%.
But high humidity with high temperatures is what makes it unsurvivable.
[+] [-] bigboy12|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] 35mm|3 years ago|reply
- Solar chimneys draw cool air in when it’s sunny via pressure differential
- Building orientation along with natural shading from deciduous trees prevent excessive solar insolation heating the building
- Building on top of a thermal slab to provide enough thermal inertia to prevent excessive heat during the day
I wrote more details on this on my blog: https://uplevelgreen.com/passive-solar-cooling-in-hot-humid-...
[+] [-] sschueller|3 years ago|reply
On the other hand you go into a 200+ year old building and you notice it's cool in summer although there is no air conditioning. The building is positioned in such a way that it stays cool for the most of the day, the walls and windows are placed to optimized for this. It's not 100% but if you added a cooling system you would have a perfect setup.
We rely to much on technology to build these ugly boxes instead of also considering the building shape and position itself.
[+] [-] pseudostem|3 years ago|reply
My point is, is 2 to 3 degrees Celsius enough? From what I read is that I need to really move very large columns of air to make a sizeable impact. TBF my energy bills did come down by ~10%
[+] [-] th3iedkid|3 years ago|reply
Another aspect is how real-estate and building construction works in India, across rural and urban regions.Some of the regions have strong clouts of companies that control building/development in urban spaces, while supplies and other aspects in rural region.
Can see the realties changing and newer construction projects taking in newer & greener designs, in both urban and rural regions, but its got a long way to go!
[+] [-] zrail|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] drieddust|3 years ago|reply
We used to have thick mud walled houses which stayed cool during scorching heat. People who could afford would go with stone constructions. Things such as sun and wind direction were also considered while constructing the houses. All that knowledge is discarded in favour of high rising concrete jungles.
But all that is replaced with concrete based constructions with almost no insulations. This makes inside even more uncomfortable than outside once the wall have absorbed heat. Commercial construction is even worse with lots of glass.
[+] [-] anthropodie|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] the8472|3 years ago|reply
- thermochromic windows
[+] [-] MomoXenosaga|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ricardobayes|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] elevaet|3 years ago|reply
https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/literally-hotter-than-t...
[+] [-] sph|3 years ago|reply
What's this mysterious special fruit the article strangely forgets to name?
[+] [-] oumua_don17|3 years ago|reply
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borassus_flabellifer
[+] [-] KumarAseem|3 years ago|reply
Aam Panna, Bel ka Sharbat, JalJeera, Shikanji, Neera, Ragi ambli, Jigar Thanda, Nannari, Kokam Sharbat, Coconut water, Chaach/ButterMilk, Thandai, Roohafza,
and many more...
[+] [-] systemvoltage|3 years ago|reply
Quoting Death Valley temperature as only “99F” to make a point that Delhi is really fricking hot at this time. Well, Death Valley currently isn’t at its peak temperature and the summer has barely begun. It’s also not experiencing a heat wave.
The whole article appears to be GPT’ed.
[+] [-] king-geedorah|3 years ago|reply
[0]https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Humorism.svg#/media/...
[+] [-] sitic|3 years ago|reply
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ministry_for_the_Future
[+] [-] AndyMcConachie|3 years ago|reply
My main gripe with it was that it leaves the reader thinking that climate change can be combatted with sensibility and reason. The idea that our global elites will come to their senses if we shove a few incidents in front of their faces goes against the fundamental narcissistic arc western civilization is currently enamored with.
The world he presents is predominantly western and China barely gets a mention. While he does start off in India most of it takes place in Switzerland, a country that doesn't really matter all that much for the climate. He's American, so he probably thinks China is inherently a bad place where stupid things happen. But I don't know why one wouldn't center a fictitious future of climate change there, and worse leave it out entirely. It's civilization is ascending while western white European culture is obviously descending.
I don't want my criticism of the book to lie entirely on Robinson's euro-centrism, but it is my primary complaint. Not because this makes the book racist, and I'm not accusing Robinson of that, but because it shows how Robinson's limited view of the world shapes his fiction. He gives us a white saviour story primarily taking place in Switzerland and yet claims to be speaking to the world. It's just dumb.
[+] [-] LightG|3 years ago|reply
That's the second time I've seen it referenced here. Cheers.
[+] [-] hadeohedron|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mangecoeur|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jokoon|3 years ago|reply
It's difficult to be optimistic, but it seems there is nothing that will truly limit fossil fuel consumption.
Maybe some oil producing countries could get in some sort of alliance, and artificially limit the amount of oil they extract, in return for subsidies? Those countries could also put a tariff on oil.
The fact that cars manufacturers don't even try to increase MPG, by reducing the engine size and car weight, is also quite hilarious.
[+] [-] hypefi|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dorgo|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mikojan|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tibbydudeza|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] moffkalast|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] cyberpunk|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sandGorgon|3 years ago|reply
And this is in the sunniest place on earth with a significant investment in solar energy.
[+] [-] rsync|3 years ago|reply
Several times in the past 20 years I have seen the heat index break 50C[1] and it is normal to experience >95F temperature at near 100% humidity in the summertime.
The issue with the Minnesotan climate (in both winter and summer) is that there is no moderating coastal effect for thousands of miles and it is possible for heat (and cold) to "pool" in that center of the continent.
My understanding - and also my personal experience - is that Minnesota summers are a few degrees away from being life-threatening.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Minnesota_weather_reco...
[+] [-] hannob|3 years ago|reply
This text is problematic as well. It mentions climate change twice, but frames it as the personal opinion of some people that there's a relation between heat waves and climate change.
[+] [-] brink|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kburman|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] systemvoltage|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sumedh|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rich_sasha|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unlikelymordant|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] snek_case|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] wcoenen|3 years ago|reply
First, once the CO2 is in the atmosphere, it stays there for a very long time (centuries to millennia). So stopping emissions would not stop the heat.
Second, emissions also contain sulfer dioxide, which has a cooling effect through the formation of sulfate aerosols. These do not stay in the atmosphere for very long (only weeks). So in a scenario where these emissions stop, the immediate result would be a loss of that cooling effect and thus even more heat.
[+] [-] vkou|3 years ago|reply
Food security is another quesiton.
[+] [-] WaxedChewbacca|3 years ago|reply
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