[nymalt]

Didn't Russia (last month) threaten Finland/Sweden with 'consequences' should they decide joining NATO? Wondering what would those be. Putting both countries in a new list of 'very unfriendly countries'?

[tremon]

Russia has been threatening Finland/Sweden with consequences for years. As the Finnish PM mentioned in his speech with Boris Johnson a few days ago, Russia has shown with Ukraine that complying with Russia's threats is not a guarantee that the future will be consequence-free.

[gnulinux]

> Russia has shown with Ukraine that complying with Russia's threats is not a guarantee that the future will be consequence-free.

Exactly this. By attacking Ukraine, Russia proved to the world that there is no point complying with Russian geopolitical demands. If Ukraine somehow became a NATO member years ago (not saying that that would have happened, but talking hypothetically) Ukraine would never have been attacked. So, the only rational thing for Finland and Sweden to do is to ignore Russia and join NATO.

[mcv]

If somebody tells you: "I'm going to beat you up if you ask for help", you should probably ask for help. It's not an effective kind of threat, because he's probably going to beat you up at some point anyway.

[brabel]

> Russia has shown with Ukraine that complying with Russia's threats is not a guarantee that the future will be consequence-free.

When did Ukraine actually comply with any threat from Russia since at least the Maidan Revolution??

[jgrahamc]

As the Finnish PM mentioned in his speech

I am pretty sure Sanna Marin is a woman.

[vegai_]

Year ago, 6 months ago, 3 months ago, started a war, 1 month ago, last week, yesterday. At one very specific point it stopped meaning anything.

[tyleo]

Agreed. “You are now on the unfriendly list,” says Russia. Except Ukraine was on the friendly list and look at where that got them.

[kreeben]

Worse! The enemy list. But what are they going to do, is what I want to know. Baltic sea will soon be pretty much closed for them and they sure could start WW3 over that but would they? They don't seem to have that in them.

[rendall]

> Baltic sea will soon be pretty much closed for them

Why would the Baltic Sea be closed to Russia? How would this be enforced?

[JacobiX]

Many military analysts predict that Russia will come out of the conflict as a much weaker country especially with the recent flood of heavy weapons that are being sent to Ukraine. In comparison NATO expenses are at least 70% of Russia's GDP and we can see from the past that NATO has already coordinated military operations (in Operation Allied Force, NATO deployed 1031+ aircraft and 30 warships & submarines, and in 2011 it performed an operation that lasted 222 days with virtually no impact on the coalition members). With that said, one can expect that there will be no possible 'consequences' if Finland/Sweden join NATO.

[password54321]

They have made a threat for just about everything now.

[noir_lord]

Double secret probation probably.

All Russia can do is bark, continue the "we aren't doing" cyber/disinformation attack or start lobbing nukes.

#1 and #2 are business as usual, #3 is the end of civilisation.

[qayxc]

> Putting both countries in a new list of 'very unfriendly countries'?

My best guess would be exactly that. The last thing Putin wants is a repeat of the Finno-Russian wars of 1917 and 1941, which resulted in catastrophic losses on the Soviet side.

[tovej]

You mean the war of the winter 1939-1940 and the 1941-1944 war.

1917-1922 was the Russian civil war and 1918 the Finnish civil war. IIRC, some of the White Finnish raiding parties ventured into Russia, and the Bolsheviks supported the Finnish Reds, but you can't really speak of Soviet losses, the Russian Soviet Republic was founded in 1917 and only gained power due to the civil war.

[dhdjjd]

Setting them as targets for nukes in the quite likely nuclear war. Russia doesn't have many arguments left.