I really wish humanity would get serious about exploring geoengineering options to prevent mass suffering and death while we collectively work toward lowered emissions.
There's probably no way for us to publicly know the extent of what all has been considered or tested in secret, but it's reassuring to me to see that there's historical interest from groups who would have the clout and the means to actually do something about it. Even if we haven't discovered a safe and workable sun-shielding technology that can be deployed widely, ruling out things that won't work is an important step toward getting there. Maybe this can be the Space Force's defining moment!
It's far cheaper and less disruptive to simply make a hurry with shutting down the burning of oil, gas, and coal. Simply stop burning the stuff. We no longer need to. We have alternatives. Plenty of them and they are still getting better. So, stop building more gas and coal plants. Start planning the decommissioning of the remaining ones. Like this decade and not in half a century. Legislate & tax ICE vehicles out of existence. Get it done quickly.
India in particular is insisting on their right to build more coal plants and ramp up the amount of fossil fuels they burn over the next decade. The sense of urgency is a bit lacking over there. They feel entitled to helping destroy our planet. And you could argue it would be fair given other countries have done their part and continue doing so. But it's our planet. Let's stop destroying it instead. Cop 26 nearly got some broad agreement on this. Two notable countries that could not commit to this: India and China. Even the US was broadly OK with the timelines.
India is a likely ground zero for wet bulb heat events and other global warming related misery. Burning more coal is not going to help them. They'll spend billions more on cleaning up the aftermath of that then they will save building those plants.
If we still need to do geo engineering & terra forming after we get to net 0 carbon, we can do that of course. Those new SpaceX starships might help getting some hardware into orbit at scale. But short term it's neither the cheap, fast, nor easy way out. Current ETA for net zero is around 2060. And that's if everybody is on their best behavior. I think we could do better than that. We're not trying anywhere near hard enough. Any carbon not added to our atmosphere is carbon we don't have to remove or mitigate.
The easiest first step is to start installing white roofs in urban areas. This should be national policy by now. It’s been four years since this policy was recommended and nothing has been done.
> I really wish humanity would get serious about exploring geoengineering options to prevent mass suffering and death while we collectively work toward lowered emissions.
Relevant to the current events in India, Ministry for the Future and Termination Shock are two very interesting speculative fiction takes on near-future climate geoengineering and the implications for India.
Everything in the more general direction of environmental engineering has failed IMHO. For instance speaking of efforts to limit animal populations in Australia that led to explosions of other animal populations. Or trying to make rivers straight. Also considering the concept of sponge cities and that Wuhan is one of those isn't very reassuring.
But generally I'd agree if everything else possible was done (like a 10x reduction of fossil fuel) but we've not even started. In fact CO2 emissions increased 6% in 2021.
India needs to move to homegrown manufacturing of cheap solar and green hydrogen for storage.
Solar energy is something that India gets a lot of. Especially during summer solar energy could help with the extra demand in energy because of high heat.
> India needs to move to homegrown manufacturing of cheap solar
I doubt India could manufacture solar cheaper than China which already has all of the necessary ecosystems for massive scale solar panel manufacturing.
> solar energy could help with the extra demand in energy because of high heat
It may seem counter-intuitive, but solar panel efficiency is affected negatively by temperature increases. Most solar panels have a temperature coefficient of around -0.3% / °C to -0.5% / °C. So at 50C , you're expecting more than 10% loss.
Most people don't realize a lot of electronics just isn't designed to operate in such extremes. Plastics start to lose rigidity, glues start to detach, liquid crystals start to behave slightly differently.
That is a good point. They are perfectly situated to capitalize on the sun.
They have the manpower as well.
Unfortunately, politics often get in the way of progress.
And it's only going to get hotter. I wanted to build a visualisation to see how hot my current day was compared to other previous days at this time of year. Would be great to be able to look and see on Monday May 16th your nearest weather station has never been as hot as it is today before 1934. Other interesting statements about local temperature trends can be seen too.
My only problem is I can't find the data for local weather temperatures!
I run weather data API (oikolab.com) focusing on historical data. Take a look at weatherdownloader.oikolab.com or climate-explorer.oikolab.com for examples and feel free to reach out if you'd like to try playing with the data for visualization. The data is from ECMWF and goes back to 1950 (I process them to make it faster to access as time-series).
You're welcome, but it's getting worse here as well. The western part gets warmer and wetter and the eastern part warmer and drier. Currently advances in agricultural tech keeps grain output in check despite the problems arising from climate change, but at some time the threshold will be reached were no amount of improved planning/machinery/fertiliser/.. usage will make up for record drought after record drought on our farming belts.
UK ain't that different from Scandi, they're both next to water keeping things moderate. Has there been a really bad heat wave in the UK lately? Doubt there's been anything like what we hear about in India. Top temperatures in the high 30s, yes one of two days are uncomfortable in London, but high 40s like Delhi sounds like you could actually be in danger.
I was likewise born in Israel (on the med coast, not as hot as India but hot nonetheless) and now live in northern Germany, among others also because of climate change fears.
"While heatwaves are common in India, especially in May and June, summer began early this year with high temperatures from March, when the first heatwave arrived."
for anyone who thinks 49C in Delhi is some extreme temperature it's not really that far from usual maximum (2019 and 2020 both May max. 46C), I remember when I traveled during similar period all across India in non-AC bus (must been easily 50-60C inside) and when there was a bit of rain and temperature dropped to like 36C it felt so cool and refreshing, somewhere outside Delhi had to literally run to shadow in early afternoon with 40+ C temperatures
"The temperature was recorded at 49.2°C in northwest Delhi’s Mungeshpur and 49.1°C in southwest Delhi’s Najafgarh. It was the first time any weather station in the national capital breached the 49°C mark. These two automatic weather stations became operational only this year, so no past data is available, but the previous high in Delhi was recorded at 48.4°C at the Palam station on May 26, 1998."[1]
so not really a fair comparison, they should show current data from Palam station to see whether this is record ot not
edit: Palam station highest temperature in last 24 hours 46.4C, so not beating Delhi record, typical BBC "quality" reporting[2]
for anyone who thinks 49C in Delhi is some extreme temperature it's not really that far from usual maximum (2019 and 2020 both May max. 46C).
That's a 3C increase!
Sure that's only a 6.5% increase in temperature w.r.t. to 46C but that's an incorrect way of looking at it. If you were to set your air-conditioning to 32C, then the energy required to cool from 49C to 32C is 21% more than the energy required to cool from 46C to 32C.
32C is also the wet-bulb temperature, so when thinking about tolerability, at least use 32C as the baseline (and not 0C) when comparing temperatures.
P.S. Humidity is a major factor. I'm assuming humidity is the same this year as it was the previous years.
Edit: To clarify, my comment was about not giving into your insticts and underestimating the effects of 3C rise w.r.t. 46C. Thinking of 3C rise in terms of energy increase or comparing it to a baseline of wet-bulb temperature give you better intuitions.
49C is hot, even if India has seen hotter temperatures. Heat must also be seen in combination with humidity, i.e. Wet Bulb Temperature[0]. Note that the human limit for WBT is extremely low when compared to dry heat (Wikipedia gives the theoretical limit as 35°C/95°F, equivalent to a heat index of 70°C/160°F) because this is the point where the human body is incapable of self-regulating body temperature because perspiration ceases to have any effect. If it really was 60°C inside, something like 15% relative humidity could have been enough to kill you without ventilation/isolation/cooling if you had been exposed to it long enough.
The other problem that you seem to be missing is that the article states that this heatwave arrived very early, which means nobody was prepared for it and as the article also states, this could cause problems in agriculture which would compound on the existing shortages from Ukraine. This is as usual unlikely to cause direct problems for people living in most of Europe or North America but bad news for countries relying on Ukraine or India for food imports.
I'm not sure how true this is but I noticed that 1.1°C of warming has raised maximum temperatures by 4°C in Germany. Yes those 4°C aren't there all year but you do notice them.
Gentle reminder that oil companies knew climate change was coming in the 70s, and their response was to use tobacco lobby tactics to spread misinformation.
Media and politicians helped - and are still helping - them do it.
This it totally weird. I was born in the 80s, and as a kid I learned about CO2 and climate change in school. In elementary school in the US. I even had a "ninja turtles save the environment" book. Nobody can claim we didn't know, or the oil industry kept the information secret.
One of the reasons I believe our current political system is bankrupt. It can't do the right thing even when it is crystal clear.
Even if true, it would not have mattered if people knew then. Today, everyone in aggregate still wants to consume more and sufficiently high fossil fuel taxes to curb consumption are off the political table.
Well, you can enjoy today, but have you ever considered about future? What happens if there is influx of migration from Delhi? Are you going to enjoy that time too?
I think as a human being we should try to empathize other's problem. Imagine if elites openly says "I am enjoying lavish life using the money \"stolen\" from the poors".
The refrigerants (that's what CFC's were used for) in AC's are not consumable, so their environmental impact isn't influenced by whether the AC is turned on.
The CO2 released by electricity generation is a factor in climate change, though.
I feel more guilty about the cars AC. A twenty year old variety of refrigerant that needs to be regassed every few years suggesting it is leaking out somewhere along with millions of others...
[+] [-] Lammy|3 years ago|reply
Freeman Dyson was talking about this even way back in 1979, echoed by Edward Teller (yes, that Edward Teller!) in 1997: https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB877028953900981000
Or in USAF's 1996 presentation "Weather as a Force Multiplier: Owning the Weather in 2025": https://web.archive.org/web/19970429012543/http://www.au.af.... (PDF)
There's probably no way for us to publicly know the extent of what all has been considered or tested in secret, but it's reassuring to me to see that there's historical interest from groups who would have the clout and the means to actually do something about it. Even if we haven't discovered a safe and workable sun-shielding technology that can be deployed widely, ruling out things that won't work is an important step toward getting there. Maybe this can be the Space Force's defining moment!
[+] [-] jillesvangurp|3 years ago|reply
India in particular is insisting on their right to build more coal plants and ramp up the amount of fossil fuels they burn over the next decade. The sense of urgency is a bit lacking over there. They feel entitled to helping destroy our planet. And you could argue it would be fair given other countries have done their part and continue doing so. But it's our planet. Let's stop destroying it instead. Cop 26 nearly got some broad agreement on this. Two notable countries that could not commit to this: India and China. Even the US was broadly OK with the timelines.
India is a likely ground zero for wet bulb heat events and other global warming related misery. Burning more coal is not going to help them. They'll spend billions more on cleaning up the aftermath of that then they will save building those plants.
If we still need to do geo engineering & terra forming after we get to net 0 carbon, we can do that of course. Those new SpaceX starships might help getting some hardware into orbit at scale. But short term it's neither the cheap, fast, nor easy way out. Current ETA for net zero is around 2060. And that's if everybody is on their best behavior. I think we could do better than that. We're not trying anywhere near hard enough. Any carbon not added to our atmosphere is carbon we don't have to remove or mitigate.
[+] [-] sammalloy|3 years ago|reply
https://e360.yale.edu/features/urban-heat-can-white-roofs-he...
[+] [-] lm28469|3 years ago|reply
When you get out of big cities in first world countries you very quickly discover that the world lives like it's 1950. This is what the streets of Delhi look like: https://www.businessinsider.com/pictures-of-daily-life-in-ne...
We can talk about tech progress and geoengineering all day long, the vast majority of the world simply can't afford it at scale.
[+] [-] nrp|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] blablabla123|3 years ago|reply
But generally I'd agree if everything else possible was done (like a 10x reduction of fossil fuel) but we've not even started. In fact CO2 emissions increased 6% in 2021.
[+] [-] throwawaymanbot|3 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] mr90210|3 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] pvsukale3|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] robinsoh|3 years ago|reply
I doubt India could manufacture solar cheaper than China which already has all of the necessary ecosystems for massive scale solar panel manufacturing.
> solar energy could help with the extra demand in energy because of high heat
It may seem counter-intuitive, but solar panel efficiency is affected negatively by temperature increases. Most solar panels have a temperature coefficient of around -0.3% / °C to -0.5% / °C. So at 50C , you're expecting more than 10% loss.
Most people don't realize a lot of electronics just isn't designed to operate in such extremes. Plastics start to lose rigidity, glues start to detach, liquid crystals start to behave slightly differently.
[+] [-] r0b05|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] andy_ppp|3 years ago|reply
My only problem is I can't find the data for local weather temperatures!
[+] [-] Markoff|3 years ago|reply
Previous high in Delhi was recorded at 48.4°C at the Palam station on May 26, 1998 (11 days later).
Palam station highest temperature in last 24 hours = 46.4C
https://city.imd.gov.in/citywx/city_weather.php?id=42181
this 49C is questionable record with never used automated stations with no previous data
[+] [-] a_square_peg|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] 12ian34|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Y-bar|3 years ago|reply
Edit for sources from Norway:
- https://www.met.no/en/weather-and-climate/It-will-become-wet...
> Climate change will also increase the risk of summer drought, particularly in southern and south-eastern Norway.
And this is where most of the agriculture is.
- https://www.met.no/en/weather-and-climate/It-will-become-hot...
[+] [-] masklinn|3 years ago|reply
Scandinavia has more extreme winters, but not significantly milder summers (unless you head quite a ways northwards).
A better bet would probably be scotland or ireland.
[+] [-] lordnacho|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ido|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tintedfireglass|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Markoff|3 years ago|reply
for anyone who thinks 49C in Delhi is some extreme temperature it's not really that far from usual maximum (2019 and 2020 both May max. 46C), I remember when I traveled during similar period all across India in non-AC bus (must been easily 50-60C inside) and when there was a bit of rain and temperature dropped to like 36C it felt so cool and refreshing, somewhere outside Delhi had to literally run to shadow in early afternoon with 40+ C temperatures
"The temperature was recorded at 49.2°C in northwest Delhi’s Mungeshpur and 49.1°C in southwest Delhi’s Najafgarh. It was the first time any weather station in the national capital breached the 49°C mark. These two automatic weather stations became operational only this year, so no past data is available, but the previous high in Delhi was recorded at 48.4°C at the Palam station on May 26, 1998."[1]
so not really a fair comparison, they should show current data from Palam station to see whether this is record ot not
edit: Palam station highest temperature in last 24 hours 46.4C, so not beating Delhi record, typical BBC "quality" reporting[2]
[1] https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/temperature-tops-4...
[2] https://city.imd.gov.in/citywx/city_weather.php?id=42181
[+] [-] iknownothow|3 years ago|reply
Sure that's only a 6.5% increase in temperature w.r.t. to 46C but that's an incorrect way of looking at it. If you were to set your air-conditioning to 32C, then the energy required to cool from 49C to 32C is 21% more than the energy required to cool from 46C to 32C.
32C is also the wet-bulb temperature, so when thinking about tolerability, at least use 32C as the baseline (and not 0C) when comparing temperatures.
P.S. Humidity is a major factor. I'm assuming humidity is the same this year as it was the previous years.
Edit: To clarify, my comment was about not giving into your insticts and underestimating the effects of 3C rise w.r.t. 46C. Thinking of 3C rise in terms of energy increase or comparing it to a baseline of wet-bulb temperature give you better intuitions.
[+] [-] hnbad|3 years ago|reply
The other problem that you seem to be missing is that the article states that this heatwave arrived very early, which means nobody was prepared for it and as the article also states, this could cause problems in agriculture which would compound on the existing shortages from Ukraine. This is as usual unlikely to cause direct problems for people living in most of Europe or North America but bad news for countries relying on Ukraine or India for food imports.
[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature
[+] [-] Narretz|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] eklavya|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] imtringued|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mandmandam|3 years ago|reply
Media and politicians helped - and are still helping - them do it.
[+] [-] captainmuon|3 years ago|reply
One of the reasons I believe our current political system is bankrupt. It can't do the right thing even when it is crystal clear.
[+] [-] lotsofpulp|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] WaxedChewbacca|3 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] truthwhisperer|3 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] Schopenhauer01|3 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] tintedfireglass|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tintedfireglass|3 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] cute_boi|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dpacmittal|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] 2143|3 years ago|reply
It's a positive feedback infinite loop: so hot we have to turn on the AC, which inturn contributes to global warming :(
Update: through comments here I learnt that this isn't as much of a problem anymore. No more guilt. Phew!
[+] [-] Denvercoder9|3 years ago|reply
The CO2 released by electricity generation is a factor in climate change, though.
[+] [-] tenebrisalietum|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] orangepurple|3 years ago|reply
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220321-what-happened-to...
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2019/2019-ozone-hole-is...
[+] [-] bcrosby95|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] gandalfian|3 years ago|reply