People all across the world are going to starve this winter.
In the rich world, probably we mostly will have plenty of food -- just not the bountiful variety that was the abundance our advanced societies created back in the days when we valued abundance. We'll pay way more for it, and those who can't afford to pay more will end up having to make do with what they can get -- but citizens of the rich world won't starve.
Elsewhere around the world, though, it will be a tragically different story. In many places, basic foodstuffs are becoming so rare and expensive that they're beyond the means of everyday people (for example, in Nairobi, where black humor memes about measuring cooking oil with a syringe have become popular: https://www.npr.org/2022/04/28/1095396921/the-rising-tides-o...).
We still have vegetable oil shortages in German supermarkets, though we’ve at least gotten to the point where there’s always plenty of 750ml bottles of organic canola oil for 5-7 EUR, but store brand sunflower or canola oil for 3 EUR/liter gets cleared out pretty quickly, despite purchase limits.
Before Covid, store brand oil was about 1 EUR/liter.
This is terrifying. Why am I not seeing coverage of this elsewhere? US media is full of stories about inflation cooling. If this is true, this should be the biggest story everywhere.
Perhaps a meaningless distinction (there will be a global food shortage, and it's going to very hard in the developing world), but the BoE didn't warn of 'apocalyptic' global food shortages. The BoE warned of global food shortages, and apologized for sounding apocalyptic.
~180 million people projected to be in crisis or worse food security category in 2022. I believe that projection includes the effects of the Ukrainian conflict. That number is also... not very different from the 2020 or 2021 numbers =(
Kira Rudik says 80% of the Ukrainian sowing plan is completed. I'm not sure how accurate her information is, but she seems to be in the know (Member of Ukrainian Parliament, Leader of Political party Golos, former CEO of Ring Ukraine)
All of this points towards dramatically increased risk of global war. That is a bigger concern. People get desperate enough and they lose their civility en masse. And we are animals at heart. If our animal needs aren't met, our base survival behavior can come out.
I really believe that is a big part of what's going on in Ukraine. The economic squeeze on Russia, although intended as an alternative to "real" violence, put them in a more desperate situation and since Putin decided to not give in, the financial problems and fallout from that helped him justify (in his mind) the desperate act of war.
But overall all of this is related to global management and logistical failure. Not saying that it would have been easy to avoid since we had the pandemic, but it is an overall organizational failure.
Geopolitics is a significant part of the management that has failed. Part of that is just how hard it is to get billions of people who speak different languages and are thousands of miles apart to share similar worldviews. Or even just a relatively small group of powerful leaders.
We are essentially large troupes of monkeys in hierarchies. At the top are just monkeys.
Economists are just a type of modern day priest. They are not scientists. Not even monkey scientists. The Bankers can't save anyone. They are a big part of the problem.
[+] [-] codefreeordie|3 years ago|reply
In the rich world, probably we mostly will have plenty of food -- just not the bountiful variety that was the abundance our advanced societies created back in the days when we valued abundance. We'll pay way more for it, and those who can't afford to pay more will end up having to make do with what they can get -- but citizens of the rich world won't starve.
Elsewhere around the world, though, it will be a tragically different story. In many places, basic foodstuffs are becoming so rare and expensive that they're beyond the means of everyday people (for example, in Nairobi, where black humor memes about measuring cooking oil with a syringe have become popular: https://www.npr.org/2022/04/28/1095396921/the-rising-tides-o...).
[+] [-] MandieD|3 years ago|reply
Before Covid, store brand oil was about 1 EUR/liter.
[+] [-] listless|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] icegreentea2|3 years ago|reply
If you want numbers, you can maybe take a look at the UN Food Program's projections for 2022 (https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000138913/download/)
~180 million people projected to be in crisis or worse food security category in 2022. I believe that projection includes the effects of the Ukrainian conflict. That number is also... not very different from the 2020 or 2021 numbers =(
[+] [-] adammichaelc|3 years ago|reply
It’s novel. Maybe that’s why.
Inflation + Ukraine/Russian exports offline + Diesel too expensive + Chemical fertilizers unavailable + Weather changes that make planting impossible + Supply chain malfunctioning = REALLY low food production
And global food shortages.
[+] [-] labrador|3 years ago|reply
https://twitter.com/kiraincongress/status/152547167524406067...
[+] [-] Borrible|3 years ago|reply
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30568513#30569284
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/futures/C00/advanced-...
Change filter to 'All'
[+] [-] ilaksh|3 years ago|reply
I really believe that is a big part of what's going on in Ukraine. The economic squeeze on Russia, although intended as an alternative to "real" violence, put them in a more desperate situation and since Putin decided to not give in, the financial problems and fallout from that helped him justify (in his mind) the desperate act of war.
But overall all of this is related to global management and logistical failure. Not saying that it would have been easy to avoid since we had the pandemic, but it is an overall organizational failure.
Geopolitics is a significant part of the management that has failed. Part of that is just how hard it is to get billions of people who speak different languages and are thousands of miles apart to share similar worldviews. Or even just a relatively small group of powerful leaders.
We are essentially large troupes of monkeys in hierarchies. At the top are just monkeys.
Economists are just a type of modern day priest. They are not scientists. Not even monkey scientists. The Bankers can't save anyone. They are a big part of the problem.