The funny thing is that the presentation was completely wrong. The "good times" were only about to begin. Within a couple of years, tech went on probably its greatest stock market streak in history. If you look at tech from 2010 until 2021, the gains are so outsized that it caused things like massive income inequality in the Bay Area because the gap between tech workers and non-tech workers was humongous.
AAPL went from $8 in 2010 to $180, not including the 28:1 split during that period. Google went from $300 to $3000, not including a 2:1 split. Amazon went from $100 to $3500, with no splits. Startups like Uber and Airbnb were about to be founded. Twitter was created only a couple of years previous. A tremendous amount of multi-millionaires and billionaires were minted during that time.
Wow it seems like back then there was a much higher concentration of founders/vc people on here. Just goes to show how big tech has gotten over the last 14 years.
Chill out, talk to a friend not in tech, their business is probably doing great right now. Unemployment is unprecedently low. Things are actually pretty good right now
Unemployment is low because companies have had access to really cheap money, and have been hiring people in an attempt to grow their business.
This is the point of low interest rates, but it has caused inflation, and it has caused a potential "bomb" now that rates are hiking.
Those employees were hired in the hopes of fulfilling tasks which were also being fueled by cheap money. When the money dries up (which it has), it's only a matter of time before those jobs get cut.
Depends on which lens you look at. Is the world about to blow up? Most likely not. (Russia. unseen asteroid). Are things going to be more challenging over the next 3-5 years compared to the last 3-5 years (less pandemic) yes. To your point, hopefully if we are out of the acute phase of the pandemic then in comparison things might be better than that last two years though we aren't going back to the 2010s era.
If you work at a large corporation - probably stay on cruise control. As a founder / investor I would certainly be stretching out time lines and lowering expectations on favorable exits and if you are at a company without revenue I would be concerned. Macro environments have deteriorated rapidly - outside the fed stepping in (which would be even more concerning) unlikely to have great exits for awhile. Investors have also lost a lot of money recently so aren't likely to step in. Flight to quality ensues..
But yes agree, everyone does need to chill out in these uncertain times. The sun will rise tomorrow just like it did today.
True, but productivity in the US had the biggest decline since 1947, and IIRC the percentage of people of working age who are currently in work is relatively low (not the same as the US unemployment stat)
Foreign Policy's "Ones and Tooze" podcast had a recent episode "Why Low Unemployment Isn't Better News" recently, which was interesting on the topic and has much more detail than I can recall.
I'm just surprised how quickly things are going badly. My company is trying to get a round of funding. If you asked me 8 weeks ago how it was going, I would've said "We're in a very strong position, hiring like crazy, tons of growth upcoming. We're going to get a ton of money." Now, it's "Bad. Who knows."
We're still going to get money, but it's likely 75% less than we were thinking 8 weeks ago. And we're a real company with a real product and demand, not web3 or whatever. I can't imagine how those companies are going to fare.
Recessions are for the economy what workouts are for humans and what forest fires are for the soil.
They are essential , matter of fact fundamental for the long term stability of the economy.
We should welcome them like we welcome hard workouts, instead we are wussies unfortunately.
People are already calling for Jay Powell to rescue markets by ignoring inflation and cut interest rates once again, just to make their favorite meme stock rally again...
Are any VCs willing to post their investment take on this? How bad is the Series A/B/C crunch going to be this time around? What are you telling your LPs and what are you telling your portfolio companies?
I lived through '08 crisis, and have to say a lot of big players got started right after. Uber was just starting out back then; so if you get laid off, maybe go join a flying car start up.
Does this crash feel uniquely frustrating? Or is that the nature of these things. I was in high school in 2008 so I’m not sure if I’m ignorant here or not.
Lived through the first dot-com crash, the 2008 crash, and now this.
The current reality, today, is nowhere near either one -- speculative bubble tech has crashed, but the rest of the market is around February 2021 prices. The S&P500 is only just now entering "correction" territory.
The only thing similar is that we have a ton of drama from people claiming that the end is near. But in 2008, the financial system really was close to systemic collapse. Banks were having runs and being rescued by the FDIC. Money market accounts were dropping below a dollar. That was crazy. Seeing Terra break the buck is...not the same.
Yes, inflation is high and that's concerning, but what's fundamentally driving a lot of the panic are the "high" interest rates (i.e. rates that haven't been "this high" since...spring of 2020). This too shall pass. Parts of the market that were wildly irrational will gain sanity, or they will go away. Fake wealth will be lost. It will be painful for the few who dove head-first into the froth, but to me, right now, this doesn't look like a moment for panic. For contrast, I was genuinely freaked out by what was happening in 2008.
I'm only in my early 40s but as a young trader I sat next to people who traded the 1987 crash, Asia, Russia (90s), and the dotcom crash plus 9/11.
Hindsight changes a lot of things. For one the market recovered from all previous crashes, with one major exception.
I traded through 2008. It felt apocalyptic. I got a text message from a guy at Lehman on the Monday, surprised he was now out of a job. There was a queue of people at Northern Rock.
We knew that a lot of bad things were about to come out, basically things that had been papered over to fix dotcom. The whole subprime thing was predictable, I went to a lunch at Goldman's where they basically just said it out loud, the subprime market is gonna explode and maybe take some other things with it.
But what we have now feels like it's sweeping even that under the rug. Growth didn't bounce back hugely afterwards, it's been mild. But interest rates have hit a low nobody that imagined. The whole period since 2008 has been exceptional. A lot of things that seemed like frothy excess went on for a long time. A lot of stuff that should have died in 2008 got to live.
So yeah it feels really big, but no climax thus far. No Lehman yet, and no Madoff. A couple of things sort of felt like maybe they would cascade, but didn't, eg Bill Huang's fund going down. For the GFC we had the two Bear Stearns funds going down as a preshock. Not sure if Luna really qualifies, given the amount of crazy things that happen in crypto.
I don't know if this is just the start of a bigger thing, but this is nothing like 2008 for sure; in 2000 I was around but didn't work in tech directly so it affected me less. 2008 was a complete panic, people thought it was literally the end of the financial world as we know it, the market collapse was just the tip of the iceberg.
In 2008 I was working at a start-up that had plenty of cash, but pretty crappy investors who panicked and decided they want their money back, and through the board forced the company to basically shut down, didn't even pay us our last paycheck or the severance required by law in my country. So I found myself unemployed (with a baby BTW), my wife was also laid off, we pretty quickly had to withdraw money from our not-that-big savings, my company was car gone and I needed a new car, and no company around even thinking of hiring. It was extremely scary. I did some freelance work for a couple of months, then found a job at a pre-seed start-up that managed to scrape a couple hundred K somehow, and got by for a bit. After a year things started to turn around and things went great up until now. But it was really traumatic.
I obviously don’t know where the bottom is but I do see multiple simultaneous contributing problems (war -> food problems; supply and transport problems exacerbated by Covid; artificially (“profiteering”) high prices; a tardy (but firm) response from the fed — though it is the nature of such responses is that they have to be tardy).
Ironically the multiple causes is a positive sign: they can start to turn upwards independently. While the 2008 crash was a secular failure of a singular asset class, or perhaps more correctly two coupled asset classes (mortgages and CDOs). That was hard to work it’s way out of the system, though unorthodox actual by the fed and other central banks helped cushion the shock…at a cost.
So for example the crypto collapse is high profile but minor, even trivial, in the scheme of things.
You sweet summer child! First, this thing hasn't even started. My fellow vets of the dot com bust will remember that period in the summer of 2000 where we all called it "the correction": the sentiment was that some companies that never should have been funded in the first place would (obviously!) perish, but that those companies that "made picks and shovels" would endure. (A Gold Rush-era metaphor that I heard countless times.) At least in 2000, that optimism turned out to be misguided: when there are NO MINERS AT ALL there is little need for picks and shovels -- and the big tech companies all saw their businesses severely adversely affected by the end of 2000.
And of course, it took years to find a bottom: the bust went so deep that EVERY significant tech company in ~2000 went through layoff after layoff after layoff over the first half of the next decade, as documented by the HN of the day, fuckedcompany.com[0]. Yes, the housing bubble started to form mid-decade, but tech itself hadn't really meaningfully recovered when 2008 arrived (and this famous Sequoia memo!) -- and it was only from the embers of THAT bust (broadly deeper but much less acute in tech) that the next bubble began to form.
So in terms of now: it's hard to know where this thing is going, but there are more parallels (to me) to the Dot Com Bust than to the 2008 Recession. I expect this thing to run pretty deep in tech, and I think some sectors (ahem, web3) may well face extinction. If it does run that deep, you will only know that it's over in hindsight: it will take years to recover, and it's only when everyone stops thinking about it that the seeds of a true recovery will be planted. So, get comfortable: it may be a while.
One final note. Back in the depths of the bust (maybe 2003?), I saw a bumper sticker on the 101 that stuck with me: "Please God, Just One More Bubble." I remember thinking at that time that there would be no more bubbles forthcoming -- that nothing could possibly be as frothy as what I had lived through. I was wrong, of course, and I really hope the driver of that car cashed out on their NFT marketplace or whatever!
What do you mean by frustrating? In my memory of 2008, there was a real sense of panic, far beyond anything we're seeing right now. Before it was evident things had gone really wrong, plenty of people had a sense that something had to give—housing was going crazy, and I remember making $37k and qualifying for mortgages on NYC apartments—but inflation was <3% and unemployment was low.
While I think we're headed for a whole new kind of disaster (albeit one I can't predict—unlike 2008, there's nothing fundamentally wrong with financing of housing, but I can't see how these prices are sustainable), I'm not sure it'll be 2008-level doom. The frustration, I think, comes from a real sense of the toll of inflation coupled with annoyance, sometimes unarticulated, that we could have put the breaks on by raising interest rates more aggressively long ago, circa 2015-2016, when the stock market started going crazy.
I lived through the Japan crash, which is the biggest crash in my lifetime, as well as the early 80s government layoffs (where my dad really thought he would be unemployed), 1992 (when I thought I would lose my job), the dotcom (where I knew good people who were out of work for a year or more), and 2008.
So far this is exceptionally mild. There are not mass layoffs - there are layoffs and hiring freezes, but nothing like 2001 - and there are not people taking pay cuts or worried that if they have to leave their job they will need to take one. We are far, far from 2008 and even farther from 2001.
I have tried to explain what the dotcom was like to young people and the usual response has been: "What is the big deal? I would just find a new job and probably get a pay bump as well."
I am not saying this to pick on young people in technology but rather to help illustrate how far from reality they are when they talk about how unfortunate they've been graduating into tech in the aftermath of 2008. 2008 was barely a blip on the tech scene. A real down market is something most of them have never experienced and not one that they are internalizing. There has been a ton of "we graduated into the worst job market ever!" propaganda pointed at millennials who have internalized it. It isn't true unless you were in finance or real estate.
2008-2009 was bad world wide, except for Tech. Tech had a hiring freeze for late 2008-2009 and then things rebounded fast. Most large companies had minor layoffs (Except Apple and Facebook). Even Microsoft had layoffs, and Google (stealth shut down of products). Some smaller startups couldn't raise money and had to shut down. But things picked up full steam by 2009 again.
What saved tech? It was mobile. 2008 was the first year when you could write apps for the iPhone, and they were a hit. Same with Android later in 2008 early 2009. It started a boom of new companies, and then competition for talent. Also Google and Facebook got into a bidding war for engineers, which started driving up salaries.
Also, a lot of the large tech companies today, were started or took off around that area (AirBnb, DropBox, Uber, Lyft, etc).
Is this going to be another small bump 2008 for tech (a correction, hiring freeze, and then upwards), or a long drawn 2001 style bust?
My bet it is going to be a 2008-2009 style of correction for tech (job market at least), with the 2001 style of correction for stocks. Why?
1. Stock were way overhauled, and coming back to pre-pandemic levels (almost half off for many companies).
2. Most large companies are still very profitable right now and have healthy margins.
3. Some will try to rein in costs, and have minor layoffs or hiring freezes, but no near 2001 style of busts
4. Tech is in a long term upswing trend that will last at least another 50 years.
This feels extremely cathartic for me. Like we've all returned to our senses and are no longer pretending it's possible to have 100% YoY growth indefinitely for every vaguely tech related company.
Lots of young kids surprised by the business cycle. Recessions and downturns happen like clockwork nearly every 10 years for the past 50 years. Get used to it. It's not different this time. Save cash, dollar cost average your investments and keep living. Life goes on.
When lots of people feel poor (ie, lost a lot of money on their house), it's real world. When lots of people's retirement savings flush down the toilet, it's real world. When millions lose their job, real world.
The idea that 2008 wasn't real world is nonsensical.
I lived through the 2008 meltdown. The goddamn crisis was more than real. In front of my eyes, people lost their jobs including my own colleagues. No one had money. Even those with jobs came to work fearing it was their last day. I just hope such a day never comes again. September to December 2008 and even Q1 2009 was really bad.
Food shortage has nearly nothing to do with climate change and nearly everything to do with sanctions against Russia, resulting in skyrocketing prices of potash, nitrogen and ultimately fertilizer. Combine that with the fact that Ukraine and Russia are also major wheat exporters. Aside from China, most of the countries are running very lean food reserves, resulting in added pressure.
Energy is the key behind inflation. The West moved towards no more oil and gas and it's coming back to haunt it. That's an inflation component the Fed can't control.
It will take years to get some new nuclear plants and oil/gas rigs. And between the ESG nonsense and $0 prices in a lockdown, those are risky enterprises. Also there are price controls (in UK several energy companies collapsed last year [1]). Would you risk your money making a nuclear plant, an oil rig, a gas pipeline, that might get shut down or could become worthless? [2]
That’s reduction in worldwide food production for export, which is not that much. Food production itself is fine; India would’ve had issues as they import the most from Ukraine/Russia, but they have an unusually large domestic supply this year.
I saw this the first time around. Times are different. I do recall one VP wandering the halls loudly opining that "no start-up will ever go public again." In 2008.
This is more of a generational cashout. Social security will see the same effects at some point. You can see it from the ludicrous vanguard distributions from 2021. Turns out the stock market was just a ponzi scheme after all.
In recent days, products that greatly impact inflation, such as oil, have recorded historic highs in prices. A barrel of Brent reached US$ 135.
Another factor that also has an impact is that of food, which may have its fertilizer supplier affected, Russia is a major export market. On wheat, which both countries are major producers, there has also been an impact. That is a major driver of social unrest.
The mid-2022 forecast from the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs said that the reduction in growth prospects is broad-based, including both the world's largest economies (the United States, China and, most significantly, the European Union) and most other developed and developing countries.
The economy is like a software stack thrown together out of random chaotic components and now and again it blue-screens and people squint at the hex error message and pretend they know the bug that caused it but really they don't. And the important thing is to keep backups
[+] [-] baskethead|3 years ago|reply
AAPL went from $8 in 2010 to $180, not including the 28:1 split during that period. Google went from $300 to $3000, not including a 2:1 split. Amazon went from $100 to $3500, with no splits. Startups like Uber and Airbnb were about to be founded. Twitter was created only a couple of years previous. A tremendous amount of multi-millionaires and billionaires were minted during that time.
[+] [-] scarface74|3 years ago|reply
And VCs have never consistently beat the S&P 500. They aren’t the ones you want to take financial advice from.
[+] [-] uberdru|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|3 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] babyshake|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dang|3 years ago|reply
Sequoia Capital’s 56 Slide Presentation Of Doom - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=328685 - Oct 2008 (36 comments)
A CEO's Sequoia Meeting Notes - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=327937 - Oct 2008 (61 comments)
Sequoia Rings the Alarm Bell: Silicon Valley Is in Trouble - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=327279 - Oct 2008 (75 comments)
Sequoia's "RIP Good Times" presentation (on SlideShare) - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=328708 - Oct 2008 (2 comments)
Sequoia Capital: Armchair quarterbacks - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=331202 - Oct 2008 (37 comments)
Related:
"RIP Good Times": Silicon Valley's Cuban Missile Crisis - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4080268 - June 2012 (118 comments)
[+] [-] softcactus|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] wholien|3 years ago|reply
Still had a good chuckle at someone commenting "This is one of those threads that just never dies" on a post with fewer than 40 comments, though.[0]
[0]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=330357
[+] [-] mtoner23|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] thepasswordis|3 years ago|reply
This is the point of low interest rates, but it has caused inflation, and it has caused a potential "bomb" now that rates are hiking.
Those employees were hired in the hopes of fulfilling tasks which were also being fueled by cheap money. When the money dries up (which it has), it's only a matter of time before those jobs get cut.
[+] [-] boringg|3 years ago|reply
If you work at a large corporation - probably stay on cruise control. As a founder / investor I would certainly be stretching out time lines and lowering expectations on favorable exits and if you are at a company without revenue I would be concerned. Macro environments have deteriorated rapidly - outside the fed stepping in (which would be even more concerning) unlikely to have great exits for awhile. Investors have also lost a lot of money recently so aren't likely to step in. Flight to quality ensues..
But yes agree, everyone does need to chill out in these uncertain times. The sun will rise tomorrow just like it did today.
[+] [-] vosper|3 years ago|reply
Foreign Policy's "Ones and Tooze" podcast had a recent episode "Why Low Unemployment Isn't Better News" recently, which was interesting on the topic and has much more detail than I can recall.
https://foreignpolicy.com/podcasts/ones-and-tooze/us-low-une...
[+] [-] unknown|3 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] bluedino|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] gnulinux|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] 1270018080|3 years ago|reply
We're still going to get money, but it's likely 75% less than we were thinking 8 weeks ago. And we're a real company with a real product and demand, not web3 or whatever. I can't imagine how those companies are going to fare.
[+] [-] Bubble_Pop_22|3 years ago|reply
They are essential , matter of fact fundamental for the long term stability of the economy.
We should welcome them like we welcome hard workouts, instead we are wussies unfortunately.
People are already calling for Jay Powell to rescue markets by ignoring inflation and cut interest rates once again, just to make their favorite meme stock rally again...
[+] [-] blobbers|3 years ago|reply
I lived through '08 crisis, and have to say a lot of big players got started right after. Uber was just starting out back then; so if you get laid off, maybe go join a flying car start up.
[+] [-] bayareabadboy|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] timr|3 years ago|reply
The current reality, today, is nowhere near either one -- speculative bubble tech has crashed, but the rest of the market is around February 2021 prices. The S&P500 is only just now entering "correction" territory.
The only thing similar is that we have a ton of drama from people claiming that the end is near. But in 2008, the financial system really was close to systemic collapse. Banks were having runs and being rescued by the FDIC. Money market accounts were dropping below a dollar. That was crazy. Seeing Terra break the buck is...not the same.
Yes, inflation is high and that's concerning, but what's fundamentally driving a lot of the panic are the "high" interest rates (i.e. rates that haven't been "this high" since...spring of 2020). This too shall pass. Parts of the market that were wildly irrational will gain sanity, or they will go away. Fake wealth will be lost. It will be painful for the few who dove head-first into the froth, but to me, right now, this doesn't look like a moment for panic. For contrast, I was genuinely freaked out by what was happening in 2008.
[+] [-] lordnacho|3 years ago|reply
Hindsight changes a lot of things. For one the market recovered from all previous crashes, with one major exception.
I traded through 2008. It felt apocalyptic. I got a text message from a guy at Lehman on the Monday, surprised he was now out of a job. There was a queue of people at Northern Rock.
We knew that a lot of bad things were about to come out, basically things that had been papered over to fix dotcom. The whole subprime thing was predictable, I went to a lunch at Goldman's where they basically just said it out loud, the subprime market is gonna explode and maybe take some other things with it.
But what we have now feels like it's sweeping even that under the rug. Growth didn't bounce back hugely afterwards, it's been mild. But interest rates have hit a low nobody that imagined. The whole period since 2008 has been exceptional. A lot of things that seemed like frothy excess went on for a long time. A lot of stuff that should have died in 2008 got to live.
So yeah it feels really big, but no climax thus far. No Lehman yet, and no Madoff. A couple of things sort of felt like maybe they would cascade, but didn't, eg Bill Huang's fund going down. For the GFC we had the two Bear Stearns funds going down as a preshock. Not sure if Luna really qualifies, given the amount of crazy things that happen in crypto.
[+] [-] dvirsky|3 years ago|reply
In 2008 I was working at a start-up that had plenty of cash, but pretty crappy investors who panicked and decided they want their money back, and through the board forced the company to basically shut down, didn't even pay us our last paycheck or the severance required by law in my country. So I found myself unemployed (with a baby BTW), my wife was also laid off, we pretty quickly had to withdraw money from our not-that-big savings, my company was car gone and I needed a new car, and no company around even thinking of hiring. It was extremely scary. I did some freelance work for a couple of months, then found a job at a pre-seed start-up that managed to scrape a couple hundred K somehow, and got by for a bit. After a year things started to turn around and things went great up until now. But it was really traumatic.
[+] [-] gumby|3 years ago|reply
I obviously don’t know where the bottom is but I do see multiple simultaneous contributing problems (war -> food problems; supply and transport problems exacerbated by Covid; artificially (“profiteering”) high prices; a tardy (but firm) response from the fed — though it is the nature of such responses is that they have to be tardy).
Ironically the multiple causes is a positive sign: they can start to turn upwards independently. While the 2008 crash was a secular failure of a singular asset class, or perhaps more correctly two coupled asset classes (mortgages and CDOs). That was hard to work it’s way out of the system, though unorthodox actual by the fed and other central banks helped cushion the shock…at a cost.
So for example the crypto collapse is high profile but minor, even trivial, in the scheme of things.
[+] [-] bcantrill|3 years ago|reply
And of course, it took years to find a bottom: the bust went so deep that EVERY significant tech company in ~2000 went through layoff after layoff after layoff over the first half of the next decade, as documented by the HN of the day, fuckedcompany.com[0]. Yes, the housing bubble started to form mid-decade, but tech itself hadn't really meaningfully recovered when 2008 arrived (and this famous Sequoia memo!) -- and it was only from the embers of THAT bust (broadly deeper but much less acute in tech) that the next bubble began to form.
So in terms of now: it's hard to know where this thing is going, but there are more parallels (to me) to the Dot Com Bust than to the 2008 Recession. I expect this thing to run pretty deep in tech, and I think some sectors (ahem, web3) may well face extinction. If it does run that deep, you will only know that it's over in hindsight: it will take years to recover, and it's only when everyone stops thinking about it that the seeds of a true recovery will be planted. So, get comfortable: it may be a while.
One final note. Back in the depths of the bust (maybe 2003?), I saw a bumper sticker on the 101 that stuck with me: "Please God, Just One More Bubble." I remember thinking at that time that there would be no more bubbles forthcoming -- that nothing could possibly be as frothy as what I had lived through. I was wrong, of course, and I really hope the driver of that car cashed out on their NFT marketplace or whatever!
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fucked_Company
[+] [-] JoeJonathan|3 years ago|reply
While I think we're headed for a whole new kind of disaster (albeit one I can't predict—unlike 2008, there's nothing fundamentally wrong with financing of housing, but I can't see how these prices are sustainable), I'm not sure it'll be 2008-level doom. The frustration, I think, comes from a real sense of the toll of inflation coupled with annoyance, sometimes unarticulated, that we could have put the breaks on by raising interest rates more aggressively long ago, circa 2015-2016, when the stock market started going crazy.
[+] [-] foobiekr|3 years ago|reply
I lived through the Japan crash, which is the biggest crash in my lifetime, as well as the early 80s government layoffs (where my dad really thought he would be unemployed), 1992 (when I thought I would lose my job), the dotcom (where I knew good people who were out of work for a year or more), and 2008.
So far this is exceptionally mild. There are not mass layoffs - there are layoffs and hiring freezes, but nothing like 2001 - and there are not people taking pay cuts or worried that if they have to leave their job they will need to take one. We are far, far from 2008 and even farther from 2001.
I have tried to explain what the dotcom was like to young people and the usual response has been: "What is the big deal? I would just find a new job and probably get a pay bump as well."
I am not saying this to pick on young people in technology but rather to help illustrate how far from reality they are when they talk about how unfortunate they've been graduating into tech in the aftermath of 2008. 2008 was barely a blip on the tech scene. A real down market is something most of them have never experienced and not one that they are internalizing. There has been a ton of "we graduated into the worst job market ever!" propaganda pointed at millennials who have internalized it. It isn't true unless you were in finance or real estate.
[+] [-] ardit33|3 years ago|reply
What saved tech? It was mobile. 2008 was the first year when you could write apps for the iPhone, and they were a hit. Same with Android later in 2008 early 2009. It started a boom of new companies, and then competition for talent. Also Google and Facebook got into a bidding war for engineers, which started driving up salaries.
Also, a lot of the large tech companies today, were started or took off around that area (AirBnb, DropBox, Uber, Lyft, etc).
Is this going to be another small bump 2008 for tech (a correction, hiring freeze, and then upwards), or a long drawn 2001 style bust?
My bet it is going to be a 2008-2009 style of correction for tech (job market at least), with the 2001 style of correction for stocks. Why?
1. Stock were way overhauled, and coming back to pre-pandemic levels (almost half off for many companies).
2. Most large companies are still very profitable right now and have healthy margins.
3. Some will try to rein in costs, and have minor layoffs or hiring freezes, but no near 2001 style of busts
4. Tech is in a long term upswing trend that will last at least another 50 years.
[+] [-] hahaxdxd123|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] recursivedoubts|3 years ago|reply
https://www.longtermtrends.net/market-cap-to-gdp-the-buffett...
this could get really, really bad, in a way most people aren't prepared to think about
[+] [-] adamsmith143|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Animats|3 years ago|reply
Last time, the crash was mostly financial. This time, it's real world.
- Pandemic
- Major war in Europe.
- Global warming has forced enough climate change to reduce worldwide food production.
- Last time, the presentation says, US overcapacity was a problem. Now, it's undercapacity. Shortages in food, semiconductors, cars, fuel...
[+] [-] danielmarkbruce|3 years ago|reply
The idea that 2008 wasn't real world is nonsensical.
[+] [-] deepGem|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] nemanja|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] alecco|3 years ago|reply
It will take years to get some new nuclear plants and oil/gas rigs. And between the ESG nonsense and $0 prices in a lockdown, those are risky enterprises. Also there are price controls (in UK several energy companies collapsed last year [1]). Would you risk your money making a nuclear plant, an oil rig, a gas pipeline, that might get shut down or could become worthless? [2]
[0] Nov 16 2021 https://www.dw.com/en/german-agency-suspends-certification-f...
[1] Dec 21 2021 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/dec/01/zog-energy-...
[2] May 13 2022 https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/company-behind-nord-str...
[+] [-] benjaminwootton|3 years ago|reply
The pandemic for instant is ancient history in most parts of the world outside of California.
[+] [-] zionic|3 years ago|reply
Now a small ripple becomes a tidal wave, and we all pay the price for not letting the engineers run the show
[+] [-] astrange|3 years ago|reply
(from Sarah Taber)
[+] [-] elevenoh|3 years ago|reply
source?
[+] [-] unknown|3 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] boringg|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] yalogin|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] uberdru|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] swellguy|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] gilmore606|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Vox_Leone|3 years ago|reply
Another factor that also has an impact is that of food, which may have its fertilizer supplier affected, Russia is a major export market. On wheat, which both countries are major producers, there has also been an impact. That is a major driver of social unrest.
The mid-2022 forecast from the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs said that the reduction in growth prospects is broad-based, including both the world's largest economies (the United States, China and, most significantly, the European Union) and most other developed and developing countries.
Prospects seem dire, indeed.
[+] [-] ransom1538|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] codeulike|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] awsrocks|3 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] davesque|3 years ago|reply