[downandout]

And the Crypto Andys were all like "you just don't understand DeFi!" to which the retort is "No, you just don't understand finance".

If you believe the statement "if someone is promising you consistent above-market returns it's either a scam or there is unknown or undisclosed risk" it might be true that you don't understand DeFi to some degree. DeFi isn't a single market, it's millions of micro markets that are accessible through what amounts to a single API.

So when you have millions of markets with different returns that can be traded in every imaginable way (and some you probably haven't imagined), throw in an insane amount of dumb money, people willing to borrow at high interest rates (relative to the real world), and a laundry list of factors that introduce inefficiencies into the market, it's quite easy to find pockets of above-average returns if you're smart. I have no idea if Stablegains was actually smart, but it's more than possible to achieve above-market gains in DeFi without exposing yourself to outsized risks.

[JumpCrisscross]

> it's more than possible to achieve above-market gains in DeFi without overexposing yourself to insane risks

"Insane" is subjective. The point is nothing safe yields ten or 20%. Someone saying "you will not lose your funds" [1] when paying above-market yields is lying.

[1] https://stablegains.zendesk.com/hc/en-us/articles/4402680425...

[downandout]

I run arb and loan liquidation bots, and have for over a year now. These are atomic transactions almost always using flash swaps/loans that exist only exist for the life of the transaction. I am only exposed to potential losses on transaction fees, but have never had a losing day while running production code. My yield on my investment (mostly infrastructure costs) is closer to 5,000%...per month. I will not lose my funds, whether the market is good or bad.

There are funds out there that conduct these activities, I know because I recently consulted for one. They are promising risk free returns and getting them.

There are things that exist in DeFi (such as flash loans) that have no real world equivalent, which is why blanket statements made about traditional markets don't necessarily apply. If used properly, these things do in fact offer "too good to be true" types of returns.

[cookiengineer]

> DeFi isn't a single market, it's millions of micro markets that are accessible through what amounts to a single API.

Millions of micro markets that produce what, exactly? Last time I checked there has to be at least something on the other side of the calculation what a coin is worth.

You think crypto coins magically make people work harder, better, faster, stronger?

That's not how the constraints of the physical world work.

[downandout]

Millions of micro markets that produce what, exactly?

You seem to be asking me to defend the merits of crypto, which is beyond the scope of this conversation. But generally speaking, most of the coins people actually buy are tied to protocols that are attempting to do things that interesting to at least some part of the population.

But, the ability to prove the provenance and ownership of any asset, whether physical or digital, has value. The ability to move value across borders instantly, cheaply, and reliably, has value.

In a world where so much has been made of fake news, imagine if you could know with absolute certainty that a given quote you read from someone in an article is authentic and given to the specific outlet you are reading it at, not taken from somewhere else, perhaps out of context. Imagine if Google integrated such information/quote verification into its search results, and could use it to prioritize sites with real quotes or information. SERPs wouldn’t be full of trash, and small sites that manage to scoop large ones could get instant #1 rankings. Authenticity verification has value.

The possibilities are endless.

[simonh]

> it's quite easy to find pockets of above-average returns if you're smart…

Right, but even then how deep are those pockets (what amount of investment can they absorb without being tapped out), how big a time window will they exist for, how will you know if those limits are being reached, and are you really sure you can quantify all the risks?

By definition if it’s a pocket of opportunity, it’s very constrained opportunity. As soon as those constraints are breached it will suddenly stop being low risk and might collapse completely. A lot of people have lost a lot of money on sure fire pockets of opportunity that were great when they lasted.

[downandout]

Of course there are limits to every opportunity. I make money everyday from opportunities that exist on microsecond timescales. I run arb and loan liquidation bots, so I haven't had a single losing day, ever. The last two weeks were quite profitable for me, actually the best two week period I have ever had. There are other strategies that are easier to pull off, such as market making, that have moderate risks and outsized returns.

The point is that these opportunities exist, and they always will exist, you just have to be smart enough to be able to get into them. If someone needed money for infrastructure to run an arb bot, for example, and offered you above market, risk-free returns, it's at least possible they aren't lying to you. That was my point.

[majormajor]

A market where, with work, you can "find pockets of above-average returns if you're smart" is MILES away from one where companies are "promising you consistent above-market returns"

[moomin]

You’ve kind of just demonstrated the OP’s point. What do you think modern finance looks like?

[sumeno]

I'm looking forward to your followup post where you lost all your money and can't figure out where you went wrong.

It always happens with people who think they are smarter than the "dumb money" they're taking advantage of. "Sure it's a scam, but I'm smart enough to not be the one getting scammed!"

[raverbashing]

[[This is what DeFI people actually believe]]

Whoever thinks "millions of markets trading in every way" is a guarantee of making money is in for an awful surprise