[wp381640]

I found this tweet very naive and an indication that Musk really doesn't know what he's getting into.

I don't see how he thinks tweet content alone will be enough to verify the 5% of monthly monetizable users

The other poor indicator was his tweet about sampling _100_ of his own replies to detect bots. That's a horribly small sample and horrible selection bias

The firehose is terabytes a day, add storage + indexes and it's pretty far from "fitting on an USB stick" in order to analyze.

[agnosticmantis]

As a statistician I chuckle seeing the genius rocket scientist lacks the most rudimentary understanding of stats 101.

Maybe from now on we should use statistics as the epitome of difficult intellectual activity instead of “rocket science”.

[smcl]

Or running a Python script? https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/06/01/elon-musk-crikey-dogeco...

[coffeeblack]

It was a reply to a tweet. Please use context.

[oefrha]

Why would you assume ignorance instead of malice when a very smart person advised by smart people with domain knowledge makes an obviously nonsensical claim, while billions are on the line?

[Isinlor]

Because Elon probably spends max couple of hours per week on Twitter acquisition?

His modus operandi is taking quick decisions and backtracking if he is wrong.

Actually it's not only his modus operandi, SpaceX according to NASA evaluation is also working that way.

It's basically depth first search vs. breath first search.

Dr. Daniel Rasky, a NASA Senior scientist

https://youtu.be/MxIiiwD9C0E?t=1464 :

> I think there are some things and kind of going back to in some ways back to the Apollo days if you take a look at kind of the environment that NASA had in Apollo it was kind of what Elon has with his young engineers. you had you know people trying things and in what works and what doesn't work I think over the years we've gotten into a very risk-averse profile and we're I call it full matrix engineering that okay that all concerns that anyone can raise have to be chased down a hundred percent before you can make any decision. Okay, so yeah like a full matrix of all the things that may be pertinent to a certain decision and you have to fill that entire array before you can make a decision to go forward and there's times when that makes sense but it doesn't make sense for everything we do. SpaceX uses a sparse matrix okay 51% okay when do when we get to 51% okay enough we're gonna make a decision and then we're going to try it and move on.

[Barrin92]

because Musk isn't some technical genius with amazing domain knowledge, he's the world's best salesman with a unique talent of attracting followers.

[hef19898]

It can easily be both!

[shp0ngle]

Because it’s Elon Musk.

[honkdaddy]

To be pedantic, USB sticks do come in TB sizes these days.

Either way though, I expect Musk, the richest man alive, can afford to pay a handful of senior engineers a couple weeks pay to store and run some analysis on the firehose. It's a lot of data, but at "fuck-you" level money it's certainly manageable.

[HWR_14]

Sure, it's manageable. I mean, trivially, Twitter manages it and Elon is worth more than Twitter, so clearly he can afford to process the data. They question is how long will it take, and how much money will he spend reproducing the analysis done by the company he's about to buy.