top | item 31694761

(no title)

DickingAround | 3 years ago

We did that in Q4 2021/Q1 2022 amongst my friend group. Literally hundreds of thousands of dollars in spending among us in land, tools, etc. Stock market looked high, don't want to stay in the dollar.

It's not a complex economic environment out there. You can look at a very small set of numbers and get the picture; buffet-index (total market value to GDP) and GDP growth in dollar terms says the market is high. CPI, M1 money supply, and debt-to-GPD says the dollar will reduce in value. So where else you going to park your money? If there's machines you can use, that was a good time. Most people don't need machines so it's all about houses and land and anything not showing as much peak. Not academic; critical to maintaining the value a person has put into savings from all that labor.

discuss

order

Ericson2314|3 years ago

> Stock market looked high, don't want to stay in the dollar.

If you are looking to cache out of the stock market, that's quite different: you were worried about both inflation and the stock market falling after a bubble.

Most people have negligable liquid savings. Even if they wanted to, they lack the means to do what you did. Your behavior is anomalous and not representative of a broader macroeconomic trend.

SantalBlush|3 years ago

There is some evidence that spending habits during high inflation do vary across incomes and between durables and nondurables. Believe it or not, people actually study this sort of thing.

As your post highlights, it gets more complicated the more factors one considers, like disposable income, stock ownership, etc. What you're describing here is rudimentary, not some groundbreaking, econ-slaying assertion.

AnimalMuppet|3 years ago

Generally an interesting and thoughtful post. But:

> Most people don't need machines so it's all about houses and land and anything not showing as much peak.

You didn't see housing as showing as much peak?