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DickingAround | 3 years ago
It's not a complex economic environment out there. You can look at a very small set of numbers and get the picture; buffet-index (total market value to GDP) and GDP growth in dollar terms says the market is high. CPI, M1 money supply, and debt-to-GPD says the dollar will reduce in value. So where else you going to park your money? If there's machines you can use, that was a good time. Most people don't need machines so it's all about houses and land and anything not showing as much peak. Not academic; critical to maintaining the value a person has put into savings from all that labor.
Ericson2314|3 years ago
If you are looking to cache out of the stock market, that's quite different: you were worried about both inflation and the stock market falling after a bubble.
Most people have negligable liquid savings. Even if they wanted to, they lack the means to do what you did. Your behavior is anomalous and not representative of a broader macroeconomic trend.
SantalBlush|3 years ago
As your post highlights, it gets more complicated the more factors one considers, like disposable income, stock ownership, etc. What you're describing here is rudimentary, not some groundbreaking, econ-slaying assertion.
AnimalMuppet|3 years ago
> Most people don't need machines so it's all about houses and land and anything not showing as much peak.
You didn't see housing as showing as much peak?