[JulianMorrison]

There may be a faster fall-off than you'd think, because of feedback effects. Same way film cameras stopped being popular and then you couldn't get the films, or get them developed, so they got more unpopular, repeat until extinct. If fuel stations start closing down and you can't get the parts, it won't matter if fuel cars have decades of good service life ahead.

[adrianN]

That is likely true for rich countries, but typically old cars get shipped to poorer countries where they continue to run for another decade or so. The infrastructure there will see good use for a while longer.

[normie3000]

> where they continue to run for another decade or so

Or another 50 years. The modern western disposable culture isn’t global, although is certainly envied by many who don’t have it.

[JulianMorrison]

It's the oil infrastructure that will affect them, because it's global. If that goes away...

[ciupicri]

Assuming you can easily get parts.

[bambax]

Yes, that's what I'm thinking too. It's a vicious circle (or maybe a virtuous one?) but once fuel stations start closing in droves it will become very impractical to own a petrol car.

[zbrozek]

That cycle will undoubtedly be slower for vehicles than cameras. Much larger, much more expensive population, covering a broader range of niche cases. I think very highly of my EV, but I'm not under the illusion that all fossil fueled vehicles will evaporate quickly. Certainly I expect another 10-15 years out of my 22-year-old truck.

[mateo1]

A petrol stations running costs are very low. They break even with 2% margins. Even if they go away, a 2m^3 tank at home will last you for a year or more. And if your typical full tank range of 500-600km is not enough, you can toss a few fuel cans in the trunk and travel across the continent without refueling.

The only way ICEs will go away is by hostile legislation, being regulated and taxed to death purely for ideological reasons, as is happening.