Made this using Power BI and the Crypto Watch API.
Started making this in November 2021, but never got around to publishing it, so that is the reason for the 'FOMO' in the title - probably a good thing if you 'missed out' on the crypto hype late last year. Now it serves as a way to see how much you 'saved' by not putting in money.
A good counter to "I could have made $X bazillion if I'd gotten into Y thing at Z time" is to remember that you could have doubled your money at the horse track yesterday by betting on the right horse at the right time.
So the only question is: what's different between Y thing and horse betting? Did you have enough information at Z time to know you should have invested? Or are you just wishing you could have predicted the future?
Anyway, that's the framing I use to counter the regret of not getting into any given asset that's appreciated a lot in a short period: BTC, tesla stock, etc.
The issue is that many of us WeRE present and actively monitoring crypto. Heck I even tried to mine bitcoin back when you had a chance to mine one in your own gpu. I even thought maybe I’ll buy a coin or two; it’s only 20 bucks each!
But “better judgement” said that it’s a currency it shouldn’t appreciate so why bother unless you want to actually use it?
So if there’s regret it’s because many of us feel almost penalized for applying better judgement. It’s like you’re rewarded for stupidity. Not a single person I know and actually respect invested in crypto, and half brained idiots I know have become millionaires. So yeah this is not like horse betting.
Horse betting has been established to be just that: Betting (I have no clue if that's really true, no offense to the hn horse racing crowd). There is no big institution money that says otherwise. There are no startup wizards working in the field. Nobody claims they are going to change the world.
Crypto on the other hand is sold as the future, and the people who miss out on the future are losers. The tech is really complicated, you don't understand what's going on, but, clearly, some very smart people do and they are convinced.
The point being, it's a lot easier to disregard horses than it is to disregard the future.
The difference is that I founded and raised millions of VC $$ in the crypto space, and watched some of my friends make tens or hundreds of millions, and yet I made very little from crypto. I didn't build a protocol or anything with a token. The whole time I felt like I could have just built some pie-in-the-sky "crypto for ML" thing and done a huge token sale.
YES, I knew about Bitcoin a couple of years before I invested in it.
YES, I could have made a significant return during that time.
YES, I should have investigated it further at that time, instead of focussing on other things.
YES, I made a risk/return analysis at that time, and felt that the risk of investing was too high, even if I didn't do my due diligence.
Everyone, at every time makes a decision to either invest or not invest in something at any point in time, even if that decision is subconscious. I can feel bad about making that decision, but I did make it. My risk/reward appetite just wasn't high enough.
Even with god-tier timing, I would have had to invest an extremely reckless amount of savings (at the time) to make anything serious, so this calculator actually puts some of my FOMO to rest.
And that's before you even touch whether there's enough liquidity in the different coins listed to put your $100k (or whatever) in at that cheap early price and get your millions out at the high price.
Can we have a logarithmic scale on the y-axis as an option, please?
One could argue that a log scale should be the default for any graph showing a price over time, though it would confuse people who don't know what a log is. In this case it might make it easier to compare what happened around 2018 with what happened around 2020-2021.
There's a confusing bug for longer time ranges. It's impossible to select a real start date before 2015. The start date is effectively limited by the period you chose, whatever start date you tried to pick.
There's no warning of this, but if you look at the start date of the chart you'll notice it may be much later than the date you thought you had picked
edit: With that bug, choosing a period of 1 week is the way to get the longest possible time range for the chart, about 7 years
One observation: The volatility is terrifying, but the multimillion dollar gains are interesting
That's cool, but what I'd really like to see would be some form of tool to define different strategies and visualize how they would've worked.
I mean, probably professional traders have tons of these to do back-testing, but it would be nice to have something simple that people could use to check basic strategies.
Just as an example, when I was still into BTC my "strategy" was to buy $100 very month, and in the end of the year I would sell just enough to get my money back and only if the average price went up in the year. It worked well for the bull years, and losses (if I was forced to realize them) were capped at $1200/year.
I think a tool like that should be good not just for crypto, but also to help those understand that sensible investing is not about timing the market and picking the right lottery tickets.
Hi, thanks for checking it out and leaving some great ideas. A graph comparing with two strategies and seeing which was more effective given a certain starting date would help people see your point.
Feature Request: Is it possible to bind the values selected in the diagram with the form, and then bind them all with the query params? I'd love to share this with some friends, but on specific periods (not as gloats, just to discuss).
There SOME assets which are not worth trillions, so no.
> in ANY time period
There are SOME time periods which any given assets decline in value. Over an infinite time scale, the survival rate of everything is zero. But of course you're speaking about selecting the optimal interval in that time scale.
The problem is we are not immortals, infinite time scales is irrelevant. Many are born too late to be Warren Buffet.
Ive heard conflicting viewpoints on the current crypto crash. Some say that this is different than the rest, and that crypto has already reached it’s all time max, whereas others say that this is just another pullback before an even larger bull run. With crypto, it is so hard to know what it’s actual value should be, since unlike a stock there are no earnings and thus you can’t look at the P/E ratio to determine its pricing. I’m curious to hear what you guys think—-and how you determine the value of crypto.
Honestly, no way to tell at this point. Low interest rate and QE enabled all sorts of funny money shenanigans. Like startups raising billions with no real revenue and wildly unprofitable unit economics. Crypto benefited greatlyfrom this low interest regime too. If you had to borrow money at 8% interest, you wouldn't be as callous with it.
Crypto has only existed in this funny money monetary environment. Good chance it all collapses if interest rates are too high by the time of the next BTC halvening (iirc around mid 2024) and there aren't enough bids to perpetuate the "next cycle will be bigger than the last" pattern.
But at the same time, its also true that the awful central bank management that prompted the creation of BTC is also at its peak awfulness right now.
It’s fairly obvious that a compelling regulatory framework and standardization around security tokens will emerge in some jurisdiction. Custodians of tangible assets will offer listing services. Standardization, regulation, and features like fractionalization and composability will allow organized markets to form with more participants, better risk management, and increased liquidity for things like private equity and alternative investments. Price will follow underlying asset plus some risk premium minus some liquidity premium. Networks that secure these assets will have token prices that follow transaction fees and the value capturable by choosing transaction ordering.
As I learned from a quotation which is attributed to Mark Cuban, so-called “cyptocurrencies” are collectibles like baseball cards, rare postage stamps, and French impressionist paintings. Fundamentally they're all fads. None of them have any significant inherent value. Typically two types of people purchase them: either avid collectors or speculators.
Don't gamble. It's not a productive use of your time. It's also a vice. Spend your time doing something that is valuable and productive. Don't fritter it away or one day you will probably regret it.
> I’m curious to hear what you guys think—-and how you determine the value of crypto.
The value at any point in time is determined on the exchanges. I think a better question is what changes the value, creates the volatility, and so forth.
> With crypto, it is so hard to know what it’s actual value should be, since unlike a stock there are no earnings
Your second part there gives a very good hint to your problem in the first part. Of course, in some sense there is some value in facilitating child porn and other illegal activities and some value in burning fossil fuels for mining (the value may be positive or negative). I am still pretty confident that if you just round "actual value" to zero - and use the possible error to keep you away from shorting the market - that is in the long run the valuation that gives you the best quality of life.
That's the main reason why I moved away from Coinbase years ago... no problem with Kraken so far. Every time the market moves fast they don't allow you to trade for a long time and they don't give you a reason... unlike the stock market (they frequently halt trading on specific stocks but at least they tell you why).
[+] [-] fishtoaster|3 years ago|reply
So the only question is: what's different between Y thing and horse betting? Did you have enough information at Z time to know you should have invested? Or are you just wishing you could have predicted the future?
Anyway, that's the framing I use to counter the regret of not getting into any given asset that's appreciated a lot in a short period: BTC, tesla stock, etc.
[+] [-] ramraj07|3 years ago|reply
But “better judgement” said that it’s a currency it shouldn’t appreciate so why bother unless you want to actually use it?
So if there’s regret it’s because many of us feel almost penalized for applying better judgement. It’s like you’re rewarded for stupidity. Not a single person I know and actually respect invested in crypto, and half brained idiots I know have become millionaires. So yeah this is not like horse betting.
[+] [-] rplnt|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jstummbillig|3 years ago|reply
Horse betting has been established to be just that: Betting (I have no clue if that's really true, no offense to the hn horse racing crowd). There is no big institution money that says otherwise. There are no startup wizards working in the field. Nobody claims they are going to change the world.
Crypto on the other hand is sold as the future, and the people who miss out on the future are losers. The tech is really complicated, you don't understand what's going on, but, clearly, some very smart people do and they are convinced.
The point being, it's a lot easier to disregard horses than it is to disregard the future.
[+] [-] mgraczyk|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] once_inc|3 years ago|reply
YES, I knew about Bitcoin a couple of years before I invested in it.
YES, I could have made a significant return during that time.
YES, I should have investigated it further at that time, instead of focussing on other things.
YES, I made a risk/return analysis at that time, and felt that the risk of investing was too high, even if I didn't do my due diligence.
Everyone, at every time makes a decision to either invest or not invest in something at any point in time, even if that decision is subconscious. I can feel bad about making that decision, but I did make it. My risk/reward appetite just wasn't high enough.
[+] [-] xuki|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] agumonkey|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] bcrosby95|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] daenz|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] bragr|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] bloak|3 years ago|reply
One could argue that a log scale should be the default for any graph showing a price over time, though it would confuse people who don't know what a log is. In this case it might make it easier to compare what happened around 2018 with what happened around 2020-2021.
[+] [-] FatalLogic|3 years ago|reply
There's no warning of this, but if you look at the start date of the chart you'll notice it may be much later than the date you thought you had picked
edit: With that bug, choosing a period of 1 week is the way to get the longest possible time range for the chart, about 7 years
One observation: The volatility is terrifying, but the multimillion dollar gains are interesting
[+] [-] rglullis|3 years ago|reply
I mean, probably professional traders have tons of these to do back-testing, but it would be nice to have something simple that people could use to check basic strategies.
Just as an example, when I was still into BTC my "strategy" was to buy $100 very month, and in the end of the year I would sell just enough to get my money back and only if the average price went up in the year. It worked well for the bull years, and losses (if I was forced to realize them) were capped at $1200/year.
I think a tool like that should be good not just for crypto, but also to help those understand that sensible investing is not about timing the market and picking the right lottery tickets.
[+] [-] zarie|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] fartcannon|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] awk_awa|3 years ago|reply
what is the "period" parameter for?
[+] [-] moritonal|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] TedShiller|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] carnitine|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] alephnan|3 years ago|reply
There SOME assets which are not worth trillions, so no.
> in ANY time period
There are SOME time periods which any given assets decline in value. Over an infinite time scale, the survival rate of everything is zero. But of course you're speaking about selecting the optimal interval in that time scale.
The problem is we are not immortals, infinite time scales is irrelevant. Many are born too late to be Warren Buffet.
[+] [-] pawelduda|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] paulpauper|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] senectus1|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] aaronwalker|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] puranjay|3 years ago|reply
Crypto has only existed in this funny money monetary environment. Good chance it all collapses if interest rates are too high by the time of the next BTC halvening (iirc around mid 2024) and there aren't enough bids to perpetuate the "next cycle will be bigger than the last" pattern.
But at the same time, its also true that the awful central bank management that prompted the creation of BTC is also at its peak awfulness right now.
So really, wait and watch.
[+] [-] vages|3 years ago|reply
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory
It made me sell all my crypto (luckily at a profit), and I have not looked back.
[+] [-] peyton|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Jistern|3 years ago|reply
Don't gamble. It's not a productive use of your time. It's also a vice. Spend your time doing something that is valuable and productive. Don't fritter it away or one day you will probably regret it.
[+] [-] bestnameever|3 years ago|reply
The value at any point in time is determined on the exchanges. I think a better question is what changes the value, creates the volatility, and so forth.
[+] [-] unknown|3 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] beefield|3 years ago|reply
Your second part there gives a very good hint to your problem in the first part. Of course, in some sense there is some value in facilitating child porn and other illegal activities and some value in burning fossil fuels for mining (the value may be positive or negative). I am still pretty confident that if you just round "actual value" to zero - and use the possible error to keep you away from shorting the market - that is in the long run the valuation that gives you the best quality of life.
[+] [-] joezydeco|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Vladimof|3 years ago|reply