[topher515]

I just want to take some issue with your characterization of "with mathematical certainty".

You're completely right that given fertility rates are under replacement rate—from memory: 2.1 children per woman—populations will decrease with mathematical certainty. But there is no universal law that developed countries must remain below replacement fertility levels; that's just what has always happened so far—given the cultures and policies which exist today.

It's not completely absurd to imagine scenarios like:

- a rich society getting serious about the fertility problem and putting it's money where it's mouth is: free childcare, free fertility clinics, generous subsidies for having a third kid, etc

- a culture shift amongst the patriotic, or the religious, or whatever subgroup, to believe it's their responsibility to have more children.

[PakistaniDenzel]

Look at Russia's attempts since ~2006 to basically throw money at their fertility problem and see how well it has worked out for them. There is just no actual need like there used to be (farm labor) for kids these days. Unless house prices crash such that people on minimum wage can afford a large house and still have lots of disposable income to put towards children I don't see how this can be solved with money.

A cultural shift just won't occur in the span of a few years and would likely only be possible from the next generation onwards, but by then the damage has already been done. Maybe 50-100 years from now after "the end of the world" mindsets will change and we'll see a big repopulation.

[tacocataco]

> Unless house prices crash such that people on minimum wage can afford a large house and still have lots of disposable income to put towards children I don't see how this can be solved with money.

Am I misreading your comment?

"Unless people on minimum wage get more money, I don't see how this can be solved with money."

Can you elaborate what you meant here please?

[maccolgan]

Funnily enough only Israel has made that culture shift, but I don't think people like Haredis very much.