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Treblemaker | 3 years ago

(December 19, 2020) "The consensus view of an international panel of 12 scientists calls for the new cycle, Solar Cycle 25, to be small to average, much like its predecessor, Solar Cycle 24.

But a prominent astrophysicist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Scott McIntosh, foresees the sun going gangbusters. The cycle is already off to a fast start, coinciding with the recent publication of McIntosh’s paper in Solar Physics. The study, with contributions from several of his colleagues, forecasts the nascent sunspot cycle to become one of the strongest ever recorded."

[0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/12/19/solar-cycl...

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Treblemaker|3 years ago

Update on the prediction:

(Feb. 26, 2022) "“We have finalized our forecast of SC25’s amplitude,” says McIntosh. “It will be just above the historical average with a monthly smoothed sunspot number of 190 ± 20.”

"“Above average” may not sound exciting, but this is in fact a sharp departure from NOAA’s official forecast of a weak solar cycle"

[0] https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2022/02/25/the-termination-e...