If you ever wonder what el nino /la nina means in terms of weather for your hemisphere, here is a heuristic:
La niña is the opposite of el Niño.
El niño (spanish - "the boy") is the name used by inhabitants of the area it hits the hardest, South America (mostly spanish speaking).
The western part of South America has its usual rainy season from late Dec to April.
The "el nino" boy is a reference to birth of Jesus. Chrstianity is the predominant faith in most of south america, so christmas is celebrated by all. Fishermen would thus say Jesus' birth brought extra "gifts" in the form of a stronger and longer rainy season, starting from late Dec.
So the the Spanish baby jesus boy brings brings miracle heat and rain upon his birth.
Invert the weather for la nina.
Now you you know what it means to you if you live in an affected area.
Edit - took out wrong statement about northern hemisphere
This description is entirely missing its effects on eastern areas like the Philippines and Indonesia and the monsoon season in India, and cyclone formation over both the Atlantic and Pacific basins. Also misses the physical explanation as to if winds over the equatorial Pacific ocean are causing the water to turn over or not (and the associated pool of cool upwelling water off the coast of central/south America in normal / La Nina years).
It’s been intense here (SE Australia). It’s just been raining for weeks now without stopping. I think we’ve had 2 sunny days in the last 4 weeks? Crops are dying, lettuce costs $10 each (if you can find them), internet keeps dropping out cos of shittily buried lines, drains overflow and flood the streets constantly, and the kids are going up the walls.
I know it’s normal for lots of areas of the world (and I’ve lived in those places) but we’re generally not equipped for it here.
I follow an Australian hydroponic gardener and general tinkerer on YouTube named Hoocho and he has documented a bit of the mess the weather has caused lately. It’s extremely disheartening.
One thing he noticed is that the water has pushed ants to find new places to live (including his growing enclosure, where they’ve made a home in his electrical box), and they’ve brought aphids to farm along with them. Obviously this along with extremely wet weather is terrible for his crops.
He has mentioned the $10 lettuce (initially $4, then $6, then…) and somehow it seemed so unlikely still, like there must be somewhere you can still buy normally priced lettuce. But I guess not. It’s wild how quickly food supplies can get gutted by climate fluctuations.
Suffice to say, I’ve begun hydro gardening for fast turn around essentials with the idea that in a time of crisis, perhaps I can avoid buying $10 lettuce. Thanks Hoocho, you’ve made my 3D printer far more useful and made hydroponics way more fun.
Anecdotally, including us, anyone you talk to here is dealing with mold issues, and it is often a very expensive problem to fix. Having no let up period from I think Dec -> May where the property can dry out, in addition to rain bombs causing roof leaks.
Many roofers have automated messages saying "we're too busy, no point". There is backlog in getting mold tested. Also affects general trades who don't give dates, they just come when the whether is good enough.
Seems to me like Australia either has catastrophic droughts or catastrophic rains. The engineer in me wants to create massive reservoirs during the wet spells to carry over the dry spells. But I guess it's not that easy?
Climate science is in its infancy. No I'm not a "climate denier": we can can be reasonably confident that the science is correct in asserting that we are in a period of climate warming, caused in large part by increased CO2 levels in the atmosphere, to the most part caused by the accelerated burning of fossile fuels.
But the predictive powers of climate science is low, which this article (among others) illustrates. We know we are in a period of relative high flux (compared to previous centuries), but we don't know what comes after the immediate future.
People may draw different conclusions from this, mine is that we need to get away from the thinking that there is a "natural climate" that we can revert to. We need to stop the focus on how we can influence the changing climate and start thinking about how we can adapt to various scenarios.
For example, whatever scenario that wins out will likely create massive migration pressures. How do we deal with that, humanely?
It's not reverting to a natural climate, it's trying to not make it worse by pumping even more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The adaptation we have to make is finding a way to keep most of our comforts in a sustainable way, and that won't come from recycling plastic or driving an EV, but from industry and regulation.
> We need to stop the focus on how we can influence the changing climate and start thinking about how we can adapt to various scenarios.
It's much easier to tell people to buy a Tesla than to tell them their children/descendants will have a much worse time on this planet.
There are many things we could do to adapt and curve the issue, but it looks like we're going to suck every last bit of resource of this planet until it kills us.
> we need to get away from the thinking that there is a "natural climate" that we can revert to.
Very hard disagree. This is about all that matters. We've turned up the bunson burner heating up the Earth. What we don't know is _precisely_ how the entire climate system will respond to it, but it is a pretty good guess that if we leave it long enough and keep cranking it up that it'll eventually get really bad. We already see the weakening of the temperature gradient between the arctic and lower latitudes and the weakening of the jet stream and the formation of atmospheric blocking that is creating both large and persistent record heat spells in the northern hemisphere summer and cold snaps in the NH winter. We need to stop making that worse and rolling the dice to see how bad it'll get (which is a dictionary-definition _Conservative_ viewpoint).
The situation in Lake Mead is horrific. I’ve been watching a YouTuber that has been filming various locations around the basin for the past couple months. It’s one thing to hear “the lake is doomed” and another to see it disappearing as the days go by:
All that people waiting for hours in huge pickups, with the motor on, in order to put their huge boats in the water, while complaining how the water just go down and down every year. There is a metaphor there somewhere. I get some Rapa Nui vibes.
Oddly, California officials are trying to decide right now whether to save Lake Mead or the Salton Sea. One is a stinky polluted accidental lake and the other is the primary water source for Las Vegas. What the heck?
"He said the district will again seek binding guarantees from the federal and state government to help with the fast-drying Salton Sea before agreeing to reductions to preserve Lake Mead."
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/sophies-choice-water-off...
Off topic, but is it common to just bring your boat with you for recreational purposes? The whole idea seems pretty wild to me. Where are the boats for the rest of the time, just in people's backyards? Or do they have a permanent pier spot in some other, more stable body of water like you'd usually expect with boats?
Really starting to feel dangerous to live anywhere in the US southwest. Lake Meade approaching deadpool and massive wildfire nearing my house this summer. Plus the government is led by people who refer to much of the southwest as “fly over country” doesn’t help.
I've seen the pictures of the "bathtub" lines on Lake Meade and agree it looks scary however I keep seeing conflicting reports of how imminent the dead pool threat is. Here's an example I came across a few weeks ago. I don't know what the politics of this newspaper are but the person speaking is public affairs officer for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s Lower Colorado Basin Region. It's hard for me to reconcile the math provided with this individuals rather sanguine statement.
>"Lake Mead would reach dead pool if the water level dropped to 895 feet, said Patti Aaron, public affairs officer for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s Lower Colorado Basin Region. As of Wednesday, the level of Lake Mead is 1,049.65 feet, she said."
>“We’re not in danger of hitting dead pool,” Aaron said. “It’s not an imminent problem. It’s not something that’s going to happen tomorrow, and it’s something we don’t think is going to happen at all. We would take every action to not have that happen.”[1]
Perhaps this is also politics? There doesn't seem to be a lot of slack in that system and it almost seems like this person is doing a disservice with that statement.
> Plus the government is led by people who refer to much of the southwest as “fly over country” doesn’t help.
The people who (you assume) don't use the term "flyover country" are the people stopping Congress from spending money to fix environmental crises like drought.
Even so, the White House has ordered studies and gotten Congress to spend a lot of money on the Southwest already[1].
What else are you looking for, exactly? My understanding is that the current crisis is mostly due to agriculture and water rights, and I don't know how they could legally legislate agriculture in a state. That is the responsibility of the state's own government.
I don't know what news you're plugged in to but I'm not worried at all living in the SW US. Phoenix and Tucson had by far their wettest rainy season in decades last year and are projected to have another wet season this year. And the state of AZ uses less water for 10x the population than it did in the 1950s.
If you live near the wilderness urban interface expect this. Spreading out into mountain/desert suburbs causes issues that you would've never noticed before because well... millions and millions of people never lived there before.
This especially applies to any sort of libertarian psycho who wants to live in the middle of nowhere with minimal govt and then when nature shtf they bitch about the govt.
Some researchers argue that the record is simply too sparse to show clearly what is going on, or that there is too much natural variability in the system for researchers to spot long-term trends. But it could also be that the IPCC models are missing something big.
In spite of all the hand-wringing about Global Warming -- which should more accurately be called climate change -- we don't know as much as we so often seem to think we do. The actual data sets don't go back as far as most people imagine and errors in assumptions for models are not uncommon.
I'm actually pretty amazed that it seems to go from east to west as well, I always thought that the weather system was strictly an American thing that went from south to north.
There's unexpected solar winds https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31851572, and a rare triple La Nina, in a similar time frame. Does anyone with more knowledge on meteorology and the sun's effects on it than me have some reasoning and/or evidence on if these two events are connected or not?
From about December through to March it felt like it pretty much rained constantly in Sydney, and when it wasn't raining it was grey. You got a few gaps somewhere in there I presume, but I don't really remember having summer.
I definitely remember discovering the shoddy shortcuts taken in my roof and how un-waterproof they are.
In Anchorage, Alaska we’ve had less than an inch of rain in the last 41 days. We had a 13-acre wildfire in a park in town yesterday that they estimate they can’t fully extinguish for a few days. Statewide, over one million acres have burned so far this season. It is crazy dry and hot.
We just had one of the wettest, coolest springs in a long time here in the PNW - really haven't had a spring like this since 2011. And then right on cue the summer switch was turned on a couple of days ago and we're expecting to be in the 90s for a few days (up to 98 on Sunday). It's kind of jarring to go from ~60F cloudy&wet just about every day for the last couple of months to 90s over the course of just a few days.
[+] [-] IG_Semmelweiss|3 years ago|reply
La niña is the opposite of el Niño.
El niño (spanish - "the boy") is the name used by inhabitants of the area it hits the hardest, South America (mostly spanish speaking).
The western part of South America has its usual rainy season from late Dec to April.
The "el nino" boy is a reference to birth of Jesus. Chrstianity is the predominant faith in most of south america, so christmas is celebrated by all. Fishermen would thus say Jesus' birth brought extra "gifts" in the form of a stronger and longer rainy season, starting from late Dec.
So the the Spanish baby jesus boy brings brings miracle heat and rain upon his birth.
Invert the weather for la nina.
Now you you know what it means to you if you live in an affected area.
Edit - took out wrong statement about northern hemisphere
[+] [-] paranoidrobot|3 years ago|reply
Australia gets the opposite weather to South America for the cycle.
So for La Nina, it's dry in South America, but wet here in Australia.
[+] [-] lamontcg|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] takeda|3 years ago|reply
If anyone is interested: "La niña" translates to "the girl" according to google translate (perhaps I saved someone extra clicks :)
[+] [-] ainiriand|3 years ago|reply
El chico -> the boy.
[+] [-] sen|3 years ago|reply
I know it’s normal for lots of areas of the world (and I’ve lived in those places) but we’re generally not equipped for it here.
[+] [-] steve_adams_86|3 years ago|reply
One thing he noticed is that the water has pushed ants to find new places to live (including his growing enclosure, where they’ve made a home in his electrical box), and they’ve brought aphids to farm along with them. Obviously this along with extremely wet weather is terrible for his crops.
He has mentioned the $10 lettuce (initially $4, then $6, then…) and somehow it seemed so unlikely still, like there must be somewhere you can still buy normally priced lettuce. But I guess not. It’s wild how quickly food supplies can get gutted by climate fluctuations.
Suffice to say, I’ve begun hydro gardening for fast turn around essentials with the idea that in a time of crisis, perhaps I can avoid buying $10 lettuce. Thanks Hoocho, you’ve made my 3D printer far more useful and made hydroponics way more fun.
[+] [-] quickthrower2|3 years ago|reply
Many roofers have automated messages saying "we're too busy, no point". There is backlog in getting mold tested. Also affects general trades who don't give dates, they just come when the whether is good enough.
[+] [-] stareatgoats|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] stareatgoats|3 years ago|reply
But the predictive powers of climate science is low, which this article (among others) illustrates. We know we are in a period of relative high flux (compared to previous centuries), but we don't know what comes after the immediate future.
People may draw different conclusions from this, mine is that we need to get away from the thinking that there is a "natural climate" that we can revert to. We need to stop the focus on how we can influence the changing climate and start thinking about how we can adapt to various scenarios.
For example, whatever scenario that wins out will likely create massive migration pressures. How do we deal with that, humanely?
[+] [-] ASalazarMX|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] lm28469|3 years ago|reply
It's much easier to tell people to buy a Tesla than to tell them their children/descendants will have a much worse time on this planet.
There are many things we could do to adapt and curve the issue, but it looks like we're going to suck every last bit of resource of this planet until it kills us.
[+] [-] lamontcg|3 years ago|reply
Very hard disagree. This is about all that matters. We've turned up the bunson burner heating up the Earth. What we don't know is _precisely_ how the entire climate system will respond to it, but it is a pretty good guess that if we leave it long enough and keep cranking it up that it'll eventually get really bad. We already see the weakening of the temperature gradient between the arctic and lower latitudes and the weakening of the jet stream and the formation of atmospheric blocking that is creating both large and persistent record heat spells in the northern hemisphere summer and cold snaps in the NH winter. We need to stop making that worse and rolling the dice to see how bad it'll get (which is a dictionary-definition _Conservative_ viewpoint).
[+] [-] pram|3 years ago|reply
https://youtu.be/NCBG_aVkv4s
[+] [-] RobertoG|3 years ago|reply
All that people waiting for hours in huge pickups, with the motor on, in order to put their huge boats in the water, while complaining how the water just go down and down every year. There is a metaphor there somewhere. I get some Rapa Nui vibes.
[+] [-] narrator|3 years ago|reply
"He said the district will again seek binding guarantees from the federal and state government to help with the fast-drying Salton Sea before agreeing to reductions to preserve Lake Mead." https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/sophies-choice-water-off...
[+] [-] distances|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] yosito|3 years ago|reply
Doesn't seem all that rare, then.
[+] [-] superkuh|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] lamontcg|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ianai|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jonny_eh|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] bogomipz|3 years ago|reply
>"Lake Mead would reach dead pool if the water level dropped to 895 feet, said Patti Aaron, public affairs officer for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s Lower Colorado Basin Region. As of Wednesday, the level of Lake Mead is 1,049.65 feet, she said."
>“We’re not in danger of hitting dead pool,” Aaron said. “It’s not an imminent problem. It’s not something that’s going to happen tomorrow, and it’s something we don’t think is going to happen at all. We would take every action to not have that happen.”[1]
Perhaps this is also politics? There doesn't seem to be a lot of slack in that system and it almost seems like this person is doing a disservice with that statement.
https://lasvegassun.com/news/2022/may/26/understanding-dead-...
[+] [-] smt88|3 years ago|reply
The people who (you assume) don't use the term "flyover country" are the people stopping Congress from spending money to fix environmental crises like drought.
Even so, the White House has ordered studies and gotten Congress to spend a lot of money on the Southwest already[1].
What else are you looking for, exactly? My understanding is that the current crisis is mostly due to agriculture and water rights, and I don't know how they could legally legislate agriculture in a state. That is the responsibility of the state's own government.
1. https://www.usda.gov/media/press-releases/2022/06/01/biden-h...
[+] [-] kurthr|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jiggyjace|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] astrange|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tjr225|3 years ago|reply
This especially applies to any sort of libertarian psycho who wants to live in the middle of nowhere with minimal govt and then when nature shtf they bitch about the govt.
[+] [-] chipotle_coyote|3 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] DoreenMichele|3 years ago|reply
Some researchers argue that the record is simply too sparse to show clearly what is going on, or that there is too much natural variability in the system for researchers to spot long-term trends. But it could also be that the IPCC models are missing something big.
In spite of all the hand-wringing about Global Warming -- which should more accurately be called climate change -- we don't know as much as we so often seem to think we do. The actual data sets don't go back as far as most people imagine and errors in assumptions for models are not uncommon.
[+] [-] chimprich|3 years ago|reply
How far do you imagine they go back?
[+] [-] swamp_cypress|3 years ago|reply
But the house prices in the low-lying suburbs that were hit hardest are still very strong. And my home insurance has gone up by 30%.
[+] [-] jamal-kumar|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] aaron695|3 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] JetAlone|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] XorNot|3 years ago|reply
I definitely remember discovering the shoddy shortcuts taken in my roof and how un-waterproof they are.
[+] [-] vdo|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] barrenko|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] swayvil|3 years ago|reply
Present spring is looking to be both the coldest and hottest in recent memory. Really obnoxious.
For a couple weeks we got crazy powerful winds. Thrashed everything.
Right now we are in a drought.
[+] [-] UncleOxidant|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] toomuchtodo|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] acwan93|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ryantgtg|3 years ago|reply
La Nina results in little rain in this area. We want an El Nino, because it will help the drought. Triple La Nina is bad news.
[+] [-] BryanA|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] honkler|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] DougMellon|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sydthrowaway|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] joshgroban|3 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] s09dfhks|3 years ago|reply