In Sweden our foreign affairs minister was murdered two days before a referendum if we should switch to Euro currency. It destroyed the final days of campaigning.
Also I think it is common with sympathy votes in situations like this, for the party close to the victim.
> IMF affirmed that Japan's nominal GDP contracted by $1.8 trillion during 2012–2015 while real GDP contracted at an annual rate of 6.8 percent[58] in the second quarter of 2014, after the Consumption Tax hike came into effect in April. This fall is the worst since the devastating earthquake and tsunami disaster[59][60] hit Japan in the first quarter of 2011 when the GDP shrank by an annualised 6.9 percent.
So, his economic policy might have been as bad as an earthquake + tsunami.
That said, he was not the only one supporting this policy, and nobody deserves to die for a mistake.
Note that Japan is in a savage demographic crunch, with a TFR well below replacement and an ageing population, which means the ratio of workers to dependents (the elderly) is dropping. Which in turn reduces average productivity and GDP. Actual population decline is deflationary and Japan's been in that situation since the start of the 1990s.
This isn't a defense of Abenomics, but a reminder that Japan has structural problems that can't be easily fixed (unless there's a huge sea-change in public opinion and they start actively trying to attract younger immigrants -- which would be a first-time-ever thing).
Abenomics was not likely a good idea at the time nor in retrospect, but a lot of the GDP contraction has less to do with monetary policy and far more to do with cultural/social policies that the population embraces - government-sanctioned or not.
Very low birth replacement rates, very strict immigration laws (basically anti-immigration RE: chances at citizenship), long history of nationalistic behavior regarding homegrown consumed goods rather than taking advantage of trade economics of scale, Sony et al being beaten by Intel to the correct Silicon Valley model, and so forth all contribute to contracting GDP quite a bit.
EDIT: This is not to say I think Japan has the wrong idea or whatever; I agree that chasing GDP is not some end-all be-all thing. I'm just saying that while I don't regard Abe as a genius economist, I don't think it's too fair he get a ton of blame either given that his country's demographics, social model, and other factors likely contributed far more towards the inertia of a shrinking economy.
You’re looking at nominal GDP measured in USD over a period when the value of the yen fell significantly relative to the USD.
If you look at the trend you can clearly see the nominal GDP fell back down to trend after a massive spike during the high yen period post-GFC.
I lived in Japan most of that period and no one thought of it as a recession. Unemployment fell to essentially zero, the stock market boomed, the lower yen was welcomed and ultimately “real” (PPP) GDP rose.
There’s a reason Abe was able to serve as PM for so long in a country otherwise notorious for cycling switching leaders.
Those numbers are wildly misleading. The Q2 2014 GDP drop was 1.7% but this is largely because consumers brought forward consumption of big ticket items to Q1 - where the economy grew by 0.8%.
The economy ACTUALLY only shrank by 0.1% in 2014 but then grew by 0.4%,0.2%,0.5% the following three years, which is actually a lot for Japan.
You don’t even know that any other policy would be better, because we can’t rewind and retry. And economy is not everything - I don’t think Boris Johnson became unpopular over the economy.
> he was not the only one supporting this policy, and nobody deserves to die for a mistake.
if it was only known after the fact that it was a mistake, then i dont think you can call it a mistake, and cannot have blame placed on those who made the decisions under incomplete information.
It is a common pitfall to attribute both the good stuff and the bad stuff to whoever is in power at the time. We like to forget that success and failure are to large extent dependent on current context (economical, societal and so on).
This is why, for example, CCP and Putin enjoy popular support: if people’s quality of life has improved, they must be onto something!
Improving %metric% thanks to general development and despite the dictator in power is very much a thing, just as declining %metric% could have been the best possible outcome.
>So, his economic policy might have been as bad as an earthquake + tsunami.
That's an odd take considering Japan's economy has been contracting for 25 years. Can you be specific on how his economic contractions was different than those those before (or after) him?
Japan is much more complicated than that and apply capitalist measures of success isnt doing it justice
- Demographic crunch, as mentioned. The country not descending into uncontrolled decline may already been a decent achievement
- Focus on quality. This is unique to Japan and runs counter capitalist growth stories. Japanese consumers value quality. a lot. But it’s bad for business in the growth sense, you don’t need to buy a new fridge for 10-15 years because it works and isn’t made obsolete artificially, Japanese consumers are happy, growth : consumption metrics are not.
Quality is just not captured as a variable in the western / American way of looking at economic health. Not having train delays, having great customer service, no forced obsolete products, high reliability in services and products are not reflected / incentivized in that model - they don’t exist but that’s not how Japan works.
Japan has issues, quite a few, but it’s not nearly the hellhole American economic publications love to make it out for decades now. It may be a nightmare scenarios for the get rich quick dudes with US MBAs, but quality of life is pretty decent for a country this far down the demographic curve.
We can only really judge how they fared when America enters that demographic slope.
> The first thing that pops into my mind is "Abenomics":
I don't think you get assassinated for economic policies (unless you really impoverish a large section of the population). I think it's more likely he got assassinated for some fairly random loony reason by someone unhinged or for his non-economy related right wing policies (e.g. on defense and foreign policy).
He was still a powerful figure in .JP politics and was speaking at a campaign event when he was shot. He served something like 6 consecutive terms and only left office for health reasons, but he was still trying to push agendas through.
Other than that, who knows. I'm sure that various US politicians like Nixon and Reagan still have enemies even though they are both long since in the ground.
He was still politically active, by publicly pushing his agenda, and by exerting his influence on other cabinet members as a senior leader of the ruling party.
Beyond the still active politician arguments: terrorism and revenge. Also the kind of people who do this thing often aren’t really driven by things most of us would call rational.
Still a powerful political figure. Comes from a very influential political family - grandfather and father were both politicians. His brother is the current minister of defense.
He's still a powerful political figure. He even might have chance to become a candidate or influencing the decision on who gonna be candidate from his party.
Reading through history books I had thought, wow what crazy times - A Global pandemic (Spanish Flu), revolutionary technology (Aeroplane, etc.), Killing of influential people and then war.
We are halfway there and signs don't look good. Am I being too pessimistic?
I'm a bit concerned tbh. I've read a lot about how NSDAP in Germany and league leaders in France reused old ideas from their adversaries (anarchist and communists) to sell themselves as 'concerned citizens'.
Interestingly, some sources are reporting he was shot with a improvised shotgun. These are very easy to make if you can acquire bullets -- a strong pipe, a nail and a cap are all you need. Where did he procure bullets from though, I wonder?
It's worth mentionning that the shooter targeted Abe because he was "dissatisfied" with him.
Japan is a country with an abysmally low voter turnout.
So, it may be a consequence of this (cultural?) issue that dissatisfied people don't think of using their vote to change the system, and feel they are only left with violent means.
PS: I'm not trying to justify this murder, of course I'm horrified of it. But I'm saying that the actions to take in order to lower the probability of recurrence of this kind of tragedy includes pushing more people to go participate to ballots.
This represents a complete failure by Abe's "SP" protection team. Even after shots fired, nobody has a gun in their hand (note the holsters visible in some photographs). Everyone is in day-dream mode not paying attention. The guy just walks up and fires two shots with nearly a two second spacing. Two. Whole. Seconds.
Even after this happen - they decide to tackle him! They don't know he's not wearing a suicide belt or has more shots to fire. The whole thing is just stupid. Head will roll.
I will wait to know more about the assassin motivations, but i am afraid the the situation right now might become worse worse than the situation during "Les années de plomb" (Leaden times? I don't know if this translate well in English, from a German movie i think).
[+] [-] glanzwulf|3 years ago|reply
RIP Abe, you weren't the greatest but nobody deserves to go that way.
[+] [-] mongol|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Tevias|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] hunterb123|3 years ago|reply
Says you. I believe he was one of the greatest PM they have had.
Apparently the Japanese people think so as well because he was the longest serving.
Your entitled to your own opinion, but don't pass it off as fact, and it's not a great time to insert it imo.
[+] [-] danuker|3 years ago|reply
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abenomics
> IMF affirmed that Japan's nominal GDP contracted by $1.8 trillion during 2012–2015 while real GDP contracted at an annual rate of 6.8 percent[58] in the second quarter of 2014, after the Consumption Tax hike came into effect in April. This fall is the worst since the devastating earthquake and tsunami disaster[59][60] hit Japan in the first quarter of 2011 when the GDP shrank by an annualised 6.9 percent.
So, his economic policy might have been as bad as an earthquake + tsunami.
That said, he was not the only one supporting this policy, and nobody deserves to die for a mistake.
[+] [-] cstross|3 years ago|reply
This isn't a defense of Abenomics, but a reminder that Japan has structural problems that can't be easily fixed (unless there's a huge sea-change in public opinion and they start actively trying to attract younger immigrants -- which would be a first-time-ever thing).
[+] [-] icelancer|3 years ago|reply
Very low birth replacement rates, very strict immigration laws (basically anti-immigration RE: chances at citizenship), long history of nationalistic behavior regarding homegrown consumed goods rather than taking advantage of trade economics of scale, Sony et al being beaten by Intel to the correct Silicon Valley model, and so forth all contribute to contracting GDP quite a bit.
EDIT: This is not to say I think Japan has the wrong idea or whatever; I agree that chasing GDP is not some end-all be-all thing. I'm just saying that while I don't regard Abe as a genius economist, I don't think it's too fair he get a ton of blame either given that his country's demographics, social model, and other factors likely contributed far more towards the inertia of a shrinking economy.
[+] [-] shapefrog|3 years ago|reply
There is more to life than trying to get the made up number that is GDP to print a positive number every quarter.
[+] [-] jeeeb|3 years ago|reply
If you look at the trend you can clearly see the nominal GDP fell back down to trend after a massive spike during the high yen period post-GFC.
I lived in Japan most of that period and no one thought of it as a recession. Unemployment fell to essentially zero, the stock market boomed, the lower yen was welcomed and ultimately “real” (PPP) GDP rose.
There’s a reason Abe was able to serve as PM for so long in a country otherwise notorious for cycling switching leaders.
[+] [-] octodog|3 years ago|reply
The economy ACTUALLY only shrank by 0.1% in 2014 but then grew by 0.4%,0.2%,0.5% the following three years, which is actually a lot for Japan.
[+] [-] pletnes|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] chii|3 years ago|reply
if it was only known after the fact that it was a mistake, then i dont think you can call it a mistake, and cannot have blame placed on those who made the decisions under incomplete information.
[+] [-] strogonoff|3 years ago|reply
This is why, for example, CCP and Putin enjoy popular support: if people’s quality of life has improved, they must be onto something!
Improving %metric% thanks to general development and despite the dictator in power is very much a thing, just as declining %metric% could have been the best possible outcome.
[+] [-] yucky|3 years ago|reply
That's an odd take considering Japan's economy has been contracting for 25 years. Can you be specific on how his economic contractions was different than those those before (or after) him?
[+] [-] Zerverus|3 years ago|reply
- Demographic crunch, as mentioned. The country not descending into uncontrolled decline may already been a decent achievement
- Focus on quality. This is unique to Japan and runs counter capitalist growth stories. Japanese consumers value quality. a lot. But it’s bad for business in the growth sense, you don’t need to buy a new fridge for 10-15 years because it works and isn’t made obsolete artificially, Japanese consumers are happy, growth : consumption metrics are not.
Quality is just not captured as a variable in the western / American way of looking at economic health. Not having train delays, having great customer service, no forced obsolete products, high reliability in services and products are not reflected / incentivized in that model - they don’t exist but that’s not how Japan works.
Japan has issues, quite a few, but it’s not nearly the hellhole American economic publications love to make it out for decades now. It may be a nightmare scenarios for the get rich quick dudes with US MBAs, but quality of life is pretty decent for a country this far down the demographic curve.
We can only really judge how they fared when America enters that demographic slope.
[+] [-] patrec|3 years ago|reply
I don't think you get assassinated for economic policies (unless you really impoverish a large section of the population). I think it's more likely he got assassinated for some fairly random loony reason by someone unhinged or for his non-economy related right wing policies (e.g. on defense and foreign policy).
[+] [-] oars|3 years ago|reply
Japan's economy is in shambles.
[+] [-] unpopularopp|3 years ago|reply
https://nitter.cz/yamaneko2011/status/1545297780562096128
The guy straight up walks behind him but misses the first shot. Keeps walking but Abe turns around and then the 2nd shot hits him point blank
[+] [-] londons_explore|3 years ago|reply
He doesn't have any power anymore right? Just a pure revenge thing? A powerful group sending a warning message to the current PM?
[+] [-] throwaway81523|3 years ago|reply
Other than that, who knows. I'm sure that various US politicians like Nixon and Reagan still have enemies even though they are both long since in the ground.
[+] [-] bluepizza|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sohdas|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] colechristensen|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] glanzwulf|3 years ago|reply
This event can be used in multitude of forms for a multitude of results by a multitude of people.
[+] [-] petre|3 years ago|reply
Apparently he was "dissatisfied" with Abe and wanted to kill him.
"Earlier, it was reported that the suspect decided to kill Abe because he disagreed with his policies.
According to the NHK, the police now say that Yamagami told investigators he had a grudge against Abe and decided to kill him."
https://www.jantakareporter.com/entertainment/who-is-shinzo-...
[+] [-] spaceman_2020|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|3 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] ahmadmijot|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Tepix|3 years ago|reply
is trending on Twitter Japan: "#We want democracy, not violence"
[+] [-] iKevinShah|3 years ago|reply
Reading through history books I had thought, wow what crazy times - A Global pandemic (Spanish Flu), revolutionary technology (Aeroplane, etc.), Killing of influential people and then war.
We are halfway there and signs don't look good. Am I being too pessimistic?
[+] [-] Spooky23|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] pif|3 years ago|reply
Uhm, you are mixing facts a bit: aeroplane came before WWI; the shooting of an archduke started WWI, but the flu only arrived at the end of the war.
[+] [-] DisjointedHunt|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] orwin|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] wyclif|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unicornmama|3 years ago|reply
We are in the denial phase. Next comes panic, and then desperation.
[+] [-] dj_mc_merlin|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] henearkr|3 years ago|reply
https://japantoday.com/category/crime/Ex-PM-Abe-shot-from-be...
[+] [-] henearkr|3 years ago|reply
Japan is a country with an abysmally low voter turnout.
So, it may be a consequence of this (cultural?) issue that dissatisfied people don't think of using their vote to change the system, and feel they are only left with violent means.
PS: I'm not trying to justify this murder, of course I'm horrified of it. But I'm saying that the actions to take in order to lower the probability of recurrence of this kind of tragedy includes pushing more people to go participate to ballots.
[+] [-] Claude_Shannon|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] illwrks|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|3 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] threatofrain|3 years ago|reply
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32022506
[+] [-] Aleksdev|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] achenet|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ken47|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sadlytru|3 years ago|reply
Even after this happen - they decide to tackle him! They don't know he's not wearing a suicide belt or has more shots to fire. The whole thing is just stupid. Head will roll.
[+] [-] unknown|3 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] lynguist|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] orwin|3 years ago|reply