You want to build a product? Great, here's the list of what you can't get this week. It's different from last week, next week will be different too. Good luck!
Parts that used to cost $0.50 are now $5+ (various ADCs and DACs come to mind as one I've been dealing with). God help you if you want trailer axles. Etc.
There's only so much you can do with flexibility and "Redesign every few weeks for what's available for this batch" before your design costs and parts cost increases chew up all the available profits, even if you've designed for flexibility. "We can use any uC in this entire line!" "That line is on 54 week lead time. Yes, all the variants."
Jason, the cofounder of Schiit Audio (its pronounced exactly as you think it is) regularly posts updates about the company to an audiophile forum, and his posts regarding the supply chain problems they've fought in the past 2 years are fascinating:
Now there's a name I haven't heard in a while. I enjoy the company's no-nonsense designs, but as Audio Science Review and NwAvGuy have proven, objectively higher quality audiophile equipment can be bought or built for much less money than Schitt is asking for.
On the whole the Schiit Audio origin story and growing pains one can read in those threads is very educational to anyone considering running a niche hardware company.
Tons of real world experience on what worked and did not work.
Not too much info on running hardware companies out there.
Running a business is not easy. Weathering a storm like this is not easy. Synth company or not, we're in difficult times. A lot of businesses will close but the people who are patient and can manage to wait it out, be flexible, and figure out new ways to innovate when the whiplash effect swings back in our direction will push forward the next generation of amazing instruments. Prices will go up, as they naturally do, and we'll have new winners and losers. No reason to get all doomsayer on it all at this point, kind of a few years late on that one.
I'm curious about the technical expertise that goes into making a good synth.
If economics force the synth-making hardware / software engineers into other industries, how long does it take to replace (or restore) their expertise once the economy recovers?
It's difficult to overstate how bad things have been for the past 1.5yrs. Automotive and Industrial microcontrollers and components in particular are impossible to source. I have a friend at one of the big US semiconductor companies. His team exhausted their main competitor's evaluation boards stocks on various sites to strip them for components to populate their own boards (which are hand delivered to selected customers). For non-critical applications they're using grey market Chinese components and even Chinese clones of some of their less complicated parts. Even then it's far from enough.
ASML, who makes some of the most advanced products on earth for semiconductor manufacturing, have apparently purchased washing machines to harvest components. [1]
Feels like this is a golden opportunity, and possibly our last chance, to re-onshore supply chains to the west. Will anyone take it, or will we just wait around until China sorts itself out and resumes its steady ascendancy?
You can distribute it to india,vietnam,south america but onshore isn't happening. Especially not in a pseudo-recession where you can't pass on cost to consumers like before (at least not more than what is already).
I think it is already too late. This should have been done 5 years ago, at least. There is no financial incentive to do anything in the US, and the infrastructure is worse than at any previous point in time. For this to change, the Federal government should plan and start investing enormous sums of money, at least as much as China did in the previous 20 years. I don't see this happening at least during this administration, which will make this impossible for another 3 years.
In reality, if the west views Russia as a threat, then inevitably conflict will arise. The western sanctions locked Russia out of the financial system, which Russia and China had been preparing for. So Russia switched to the Chinese financial system. At this point, Russia has tons of resources and is feeding the Chinese production. China in 2019 was producing 30% of the worlds goods[1].
With Russia locked out of the west and China looking to advance into Taiwan, I don't really see a way that long-term China doesn't cease to produce goods for the west. When they move on Taiwan, the west will sanction them and the west will be unable to produce a large number of goods. Alternatively, Taiwan will fall and be taken without a fight and the west will be subjugated by China.
No they won't, because fabs are long-term investments and anyone who onshores because of this crisis will be fucked over when things return to normal and their costs are suddenly many times higher than the ones of their competitors who stayed in China.
Re-onshoring requires massive, permanent subsidies from the government to be a realistic proposition, and it is far from clear that we have the will to do that.
Many fabs are not in China, and you can't just magically snap your fingers and build a chip fab.
The capital requirements are huge. You need vast quantities of ultrapure water. You need a friendly government that will look the other way to you dumping toxic waste somewhere. You need lots of highly technical staff. You need lithography machines that are some of the most complicated and expensive electromechanical devices made. And...lots and lots and lots of capital.
I'm also interested in this - is anyone working on it?
I know that in Australia we have Rode Microphones, who brought manufacturing onshore over 15 years ago and (according to this article at least) no longer import any Chinese parts except for some shockmounts. Also worth noting that since they brought production onshore, part rejection rates fell from 50% to less than 3%:
While it's nice to have microphones, it seems more critical infrastructure parts need to be made here. Apparently China completely dominates the world production of solar panels and solar parts, and I can't think of much that is more critical than power generation & supply:
I wouldn't know where to start with any of this myself (nor would I be the right person to do it), but I often think that if I changed careers, working in that area might be a direction I would look into. I love software but it is useless without the actual hardware devices it runs on.
Even without Covid etc., the synth business is very challenging from a supply chain standpoint. The quantities and margins are not great. The highest selling synth of all time was the DX7. It sold ~200k units. Most stuff sells much fewer units. It's part of why you will see several models that use similar parts so that they can leverage some scale. Even if a company manages to combine the BOMs from several models to improve buying power, unless you are Yamaha, Roland, or Korg, it's unlikely that you have enough overall volumes to get allocations from component suppliers. The consumer electronics and automotive are going to be way ahead of any synth company.
What's the current prognosis for supply chains returning to stability?
The last I heard, the main culprits were (a) COVID shutting down Chinese factories; (b) cargo-ship related shipping delays; (c) COVID-related demand for work-from-home electronics; and (d) follow-on problems caused by hoarding.
My impression was that (a, b, c) are largely behind us now. Does that mean we just need to give things a little time?
You are the problem if you wait two years for F7 instead of retooling.
>We have open orders for thousands of microcontrollers from NXP and Microchip. The problem extends far beyond processors. Texas Instrument power switchers used throughout the industry are in very short supply; we use them for pulling down 15V supplies to 3.3V or to generate +/- and 48V phantom power rails. We also cannot get some ESD protection parts, power MOSFETs and a number of somewhat obscure analog switching ICs. We’re also paying 30-40% more for metal cases and packaging.
Meanwhile less reputable Chinese branded replacements are plentiful and cheap.
This one was a surprise to me when I went looking. I'm building a custom audio processor for someone and I couldn't find something as simple as a 2-up dual mux in stock anywhere. I ended up finding a handful of DIP-package dual multiplexers in a drawer in my lab and using those. Luckily it occurred to me to check availability before doing a PCB layout and I only needed 3, but seriously! A basic analog switch was the last thing I though I'd have trouble finding.
> Meanwhile less reputable Chinese branded replacements are plentiful and cheap.
Not on the power switchers, oddly.
DC-DC Buck/Boost regulators have been phasing in and out of existence like ghosts. Yes, even the Chinese ones. Even worse, changing a buck/boost regulator generally has lots of knock-on effects--the inductors change size so you just wasted a bunch of inductor stock, your swicthing fdrequency changes so your EMI is all over the map, etc.
Can some one in semi conductor industry explain which chips there is a shortage of and what kind of industrial capacity needs to come online to create supply?
I'm familiar with CPU / GPUs (i.e. very expensive equipment, facilities, etc.), but curious if most chips will do with using cheaper and older generation as sufficient. For example power MOSFETs, microcontrollers, etc.
I kind of wonder what this means for our prospects of being able to make complicated products in the future. Presumably this will all settle out and we'll eventually settle back into a working supply chain that's maybe a little less centralized and with more redundancy. But that's not guaranteed.
In order to deal with climate change and maintain a decent quality of living, we need to replace a lot of ICE vehicles with electric replacements over the next decade or two. What happens if major manufacturers just can't make cars because the parts aren't available, and we're basically just stuck with the cars we already have for as long as we can keep them running? This has already happened to some extent thanks to Covid-19 and poor logistics planning, but it could be a lot longer and a lot worse if, say, China were to attempt to invade Taiwan or there's some new, unexpected catastrophe (natural or artificial).
Time for virtual synth to rise and shine again? So far I feel like softsynths sound amazing, but the hapric of a real device with knobs makes a huge difference in using it.
Now, I wonder if it's time someone comes up with a fundamental different interface approach for a soft synth that lowers this creative barrier.
They more or less can, but people like the physical gear for the "feels" (see also: vintage guitars and valve amps). It's increasingly absurd given that more and more synth modules are almost entirely digital and microcontroller-based. I find it hard to have a lot of sympathy here.
After reading this article went to Sweetwater to check out synths and nearly every single synth has a price drop icon above it. So it can't be too severe?
Is part of the issue non musical electronic devices all moving digital? I imagine there's a lot of analog IC's that were previously used across a wide range of industries are now moving far less units.
good side of current supply chain issues is this encourages hardware manufacturers to make the transition away from using domain specific computer chips and to instead rewrite that logic purely in software to get executed in today's super fast super efficient CPU/GPU ... decades ago it made sense to design hardware to do the compute yet today that strategy is more costly and risky ... and yes software is eating the world and where it isn't it will be so make this jump now
... And the amount of ads on this page was just killing the user experience there.. I like to keep the ads enabled to help to support small sites, but no way in that case.
[+] [-] Syonyk|3 years ago|reply
You want to build a product? Great, here's the list of what you can't get this week. It's different from last week, next week will be different too. Good luck!
Parts that used to cost $0.50 are now $5+ (various ADCs and DACs come to mind as one I've been dealing with). God help you if you want trailer axles. Etc.
There's only so much you can do with flexibility and "Redesign every few weeks for what's available for this batch" before your design costs and parts cost increases chew up all the available profits, even if you've designed for flexibility. "We can use any uC in this entire line!" "That line is on 54 week lead time. Yes, all the variants."
Such is life in the decline.
[+] [-] Qub3d|3 years ago|reply
* https://www.head-fi.org/threads/schiit-happened-the-story-of...
* https://www.head-fi.org/threads/schiit-happened-the-story-of...
* https://www.head-fi.org/threads/schiit-happened-the-story-of...
[+] [-] Dracophoenix|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] RF_Savage|3 years ago|reply
Tons of real world experience on what worked and did not work. Not too much info on running hardware companies out there.
[+] [-] Lio|3 years ago|reply
I'm imagining "Downtown" Clay Davis from The Wire. No idea if that's correct or not but it makes me laugh.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=70eU840lc38
[+] [-] xeromal|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] discardable_dan|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] IAmPym|3 years ago|reply
Running a business is not easy. Weathering a storm like this is not easy. Synth company or not, we're in difficult times. A lot of businesses will close but the people who are patient and can manage to wait it out, be flexible, and figure out new ways to innovate when the whiplash effect swings back in our direction will push forward the next generation of amazing instruments. Prices will go up, as they naturally do, and we'll have new winners and losers. No reason to get all doomsayer on it all at this point, kind of a few years late on that one.
[+] [-] CoastalCoder|3 years ago|reply
If economics force the synth-making hardware / software engineers into other industries, how long does it take to replace (or restore) their expertise once the economy recovers?
[+] [-] brudgers|3 years ago|reply
Which is why I saw the headline and thought “going bust is what happens to synth manufacturers” and this is that part of the cycle.
And not to say that it isn’t a bummer.
And not to say that today’s Sequential doesn’t make great gear.
Just that making synths seems to be a hard business, like most manufacturing and art based businesses.
[+] [-] Pr0ject217|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] alfiedotwtf|3 years ago|reply
Thanks for helping bring my beautiful P5v4 into this world.
[+] [-] krnlpnc|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tjr225|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] lin83|3 years ago|reply
ASML, who makes some of the most advanced products on earth for semiconductor manufacturing, have apparently purchased washing machines to harvest components. [1]
[1] https://hothardware.com/news/asml-ceo-claims-chip-shortage-f...
[+] [-] jl6|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jmoak3|3 years ago|reply
With what workers? They'll be too busy caring for their parents.
That is, if their government and society even survive the decade's transition as their quality of life stagnates and people begin to question the CCP.
https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2020/
[+] [-] badrabbit|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] coliveira|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] citilife|3 years ago|reply
https://gjia.georgetown.edu/2022/04/14/the-logic-behind-chin...
They're created the BRICS back in 2009 and have been expanding.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS
In reality, if the west views Russia as a threat, then inevitably conflict will arise. The western sanctions locked Russia out of the financial system, which Russia and China had been preparing for. So Russia switched to the Chinese financial system. At this point, Russia has tons of resources and is feeding the Chinese production. China in 2019 was producing 30% of the worlds goods[1].
With Russia locked out of the west and China looking to advance into Taiwan, I don't really see a way that long-term China doesn't cease to produce goods for the west. When they move on Taiwan, the west will sanction them and the west will be unable to produce a large number of goods. Alternatively, Taiwan will fall and be taken without a fight and the west will be subjugated by China.
[1] https://www.statista.com/chart/20858/top-10-countries-by-sha...
[+] [-] Analemma_|3 years ago|reply
Re-onshoring requires massive, permanent subsidies from the government to be a realistic proposition, and it is far from clear that we have the will to do that.
[+] [-] KennyBlanken|3 years ago|reply
The capital requirements are huge. You need vast quantities of ultrapure water. You need a friendly government that will look the other way to you dumping toxic waste somewhere. You need lots of highly technical staff. You need lithography machines that are some of the most complicated and expensive electromechanical devices made. And...lots and lots and lots of capital.
[+] [-] SyneRyder|3 years ago|reply
I know that in Australia we have Rode Microphones, who brought manufacturing onshore over 15 years ago and (according to this article at least) no longer import any Chinese parts except for some shockmounts. Also worth noting that since they brought production onshore, part rejection rates fell from 50% to less than 3%:
https://www.soundonsound.com/people/peter-freedman-rode-micr...
While it's nice to have microphones, it seems more critical infrastructure parts need to be made here. Apparently China completely dominates the world production of solar panels and solar parts, and I can't think of much that is more critical than power generation & supply:
https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2021/08/u-s-solar-chin...
I wouldn't know where to start with any of this myself (nor would I be the right person to do it), but I often think that if I changed careers, working in that area might be a direction I would look into. I love software but it is useless without the actual hardware devices it runs on.
[+] [-] beebmam|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] cwkoss|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] s1mon|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] CoastalCoder|3 years ago|reply
The last I heard, the main culprits were (a) COVID shutting down Chinese factories; (b) cargo-ship related shipping delays; (c) COVID-related demand for work-from-home electronics; and (d) follow-on problems caused by hoarding.
My impression was that (a, b, c) are largely behind us now. Does that mean we just need to give things a little time?
[Edited for clearer wording.]
[+] [-] rasz|3 years ago|reply
>We have open orders for thousands of microcontrollers from NXP and Microchip. The problem extends far beyond processors. Texas Instrument power switchers used throughout the industry are in very short supply; we use them for pulling down 15V supplies to 3.3V or to generate +/- and 48V phantom power rails. We also cannot get some ESD protection parts, power MOSFETs and a number of somewhat obscure analog switching ICs. We’re also paying 30-40% more for metal cases and packaging.
Meanwhile less reputable Chinese branded replacements are plentiful and cheap.
[+] [-] HeyLaughingBoy|3 years ago|reply
This one was a surprise to me when I went looking. I'm building a custom audio processor for someone and I couldn't find something as simple as a 2-up dual mux in stock anywhere. I ended up finding a handful of DIP-package dual multiplexers in a drawer in my lab and using those. Luckily it occurred to me to check availability before doing a PCB layout and I only needed 3, but seriously! A basic analog switch was the last thing I though I'd have trouble finding.
[+] [-] robotresearcher|3 years ago|reply
Do they work? What's the low reputation due to?
[+] [-] bsder|3 years ago|reply
Not on the power switchers, oddly.
DC-DC Buck/Boost regulators have been phasing in and out of existence like ghosts. Yes, even the Chinese ones. Even worse, changing a buck/boost regulator generally has lots of knock-on effects--the inductors change size so you just wasted a bunch of inductor stock, your swicthing fdrequency changes so your EMI is all over the map, etc.
[+] [-] CamperBob2|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] CarVac|3 years ago|reply
We already redesigned to switch away from Teensy 3.2, which had production suspended indefinitely due to parts shortages.
[+] [-] rasz|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] bschwindHN|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] miketery|3 years ago|reply
I'm familiar with CPU / GPUs (i.e. very expensive equipment, facilities, etc.), but curious if most chips will do with using cheaper and older generation as sufficient. For example power MOSFETs, microcontrollers, etc.
[+] [-] tomg|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] elihu|3 years ago|reply
In order to deal with climate change and maintain a decent quality of living, we need to replace a lot of ICE vehicles with electric replacements over the next decade or two. What happens if major manufacturers just can't make cars because the parts aren't available, and we're basically just stuck with the cars we already have for as long as we can keep them running? This has already happened to some extent thanks to Covid-19 and poor logistics planning, but it could be a lot longer and a lot worse if, say, China were to attempt to invade Taiwan or there's some new, unexpected catastrophe (natural or artificial).
[+] [-] rightbyte|3 years ago|reply
If they had to throw out most of the fluff too be able to build cars I would see it as an improvement.
The computer systems are used for spying and DRM subscription buttheaters anyway.
[+] [-] tomxor|3 years ago|reply
I knew buying them and almost immediately putting them in a draw would make sense eventually.
[+] [-] _def|3 years ago|reply
Now, I wonder if it's time someone comes up with a fundamental different interface approach for a soft synth that lowers this creative barrier.
[+] [-] boffinAudio|3 years ago|reply
Monome Norns:
https://monome.org/docs/norns/
Zynthian:
https://zynthian.org/
[+] [-] substation13|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ris|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] odiroot|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Flatcircle|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] synicalx|3 years ago|reply
I keep seeing this being used as the new catch-all explanation for everything, but I never see it clearly defined anywhere and I'm very curious.
[+] [-] ioseph|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] AtomicOrbital|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] pelasaco|3 years ago|reply