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jesstaa | 3 years ago

So it's estimated to cost 4x the cost of wind or solar today and it's not being deployed for at least 10yrs. Sounds like a bargain.

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mikefallen|3 years ago

Except wind and solar cannot be used to sustain base load energy demands. Until battery technology improves drastically the issue with solar and wind is the variability of output. One of the greatest challenges of operating a power grid is matching the supply of electricity with demand. Thats why they build gas and coal plants to meet peak energy demand periods. Nuclear energy supplemented by win and solar is by far the cleanest way to meet our energy needs currently.

Pxtl|3 years ago

Alternately, if wind and solar can be made absurdly cheap, there are are less-energy-efficient but lower-cost per unit output forms of storage that can help. Pneumatic storage is promising for this for example. So like instead of one wind turbine and one battery, you build two wind turbines and one pneumatic energy storage vessel and get the same amount out.

Schroedingersat|3 years ago

Oh no. You only get one unit of wind, one unit of solar, one unit of methane by electrolysis, and one unit of combined cycle gas plant for the same price rather than the usual of double all that.

However can we figure out how to get the same result with twice the energy and the ability to store it indefinitely at 40% efficiency. Especially given that the costs of all these technologies are going down at two digit percent per year.

nl|3 years ago

This is mostly untrue.

Coal plants in particular are dramatically unsuited for the rapid changes in output to respond to changing demands for power.

Gas plants on the other hand are. And gas plants are cheap!

Overbuilding renewables with combinations of solar, geothermal (where available) and wind gives pretty good availability on it's own and with gas plants as a backup it gives you plenty of grid stability.

Edit: A link you posted elsewhere (thanks!) points out how well this works:

> If other sources meet demand 5% of the time, electricity costs fall and the energy capacity cost target rises to $150/kWh.

Battery storage is already well below this $150/kWh price.

https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(19)30300-9

SECProto|3 years ago

> it's not being deployed for at least 10yrs

2028 is 6 years from now.

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viraptor|3 years ago

The caveat is mentioned in the link, right after the price comparison. "provided the 1,500- to-1,800 acres of land needed was free and the sun shone steadily" considering the price of land recently... that may need a better estimate than just the cost of the tech.

throwaway894345|3 years ago

Can you share your math? How much storage are you factoring in for renewables?

mikefallen|3 years ago

https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(19)30300-9. Tldr $20 per kilowatt hour in energy capacity costs. That’s how cheap storage would have to get for renewables to get to 100 percent.

Also the land requirements for huge solar / wind installations is another downside. Nuclear at scale is a clear winner especially in seismically stable regions of NA.

jesstaa|3 years ago

The numbers from the article are:

* $300 million for equivalent solar

* $200-400 million for equivalent onshore wind (they don't mention offshore wind which is more cost effective over it's lifetime)

* $1.5 billion for the SMR

Assuming solar and wind stay the same price for the next decade (which they definitely won't) that's a 4-5x construction price difference. The article didn't mention lifetime, decommissioning or running costs, which is likely a significant difference too.