Skip the first 92 pages and go straight to 93-96 which give a total rundown of all US crop acreage and production, from corn and soybeans down to maple syrup and peppermint oil.
Continue with page 97 which has a complete month-by-month rundown on US weather with comments on impact on specific crops.
My dad explained to me that in the 1960s and 1970s, USDA assessors would just drive down the road and look at a field and scribble a random number into their notebook. The data might not be very accurate. The reason he said they never cared to write an accurate number is that after they gave the numbers to the USDA, the USDA would just write the number they wanted to hear down instead. It had something to do with keeping the price they needed to keep exports flowing. For farmers of course, it hits them right in the pocket book because it prevents the prices reaching where they should be. On the other hand, subsidies help alleviate that a bit.
I'm not sure if this is true still today. But, I doubt they're counting every successful crop correctly. And, there's a lot that can happen before they are actually harvested; floods, insects, blight, drought, etc. For example, there'd be a huge drought and the USDA would announce a bumper crop and he'd laugh. And, that was recent.
Either way, past data is probably pretty suspect. And, today's data might have the same problem. Which means if you're basing prediction models on this you might expect to be disappointed when things don't pan out. This is especially dangerous if we enter an era where food becomes more scarce. It is an accounting issue if you think about it.
Definitely some interesting info. Has this been produced for previous years? I'm intrigued how the sentiment in the weather highlights might have changed over time.
Hey, I did that satellite productions a bit less than 20 years ago. The article doesn’t talk about this though.
GIS was all the rage, we collected satellite images over Europe, weather and market data and where able to model the date and volume of crop to enter the market.
Fact being that we can get an indication of a given crop maturity status from its reflectance, thus how far from ripe it is, see https://gisgeography.com/ndvi-normalized-difference-vegetati...
I guess when can train better models nowadays.
In the end, these estimations allowed for… drum roll… speculation.
That must be fun data intelligence for markets, I wonder how insurance and futures work w/ GIS data.
I just remember chatting way back with an insurance agent that insures crop growth and yields and how much is in a silo and I thought it was all interesting.
Farmers and orgs, probably more the later buy policies that are payable in fiat cash for underproduction or loss. The loss makes sense, but I didn't think it was that big of a market.
So... Russia is burning the Ukrainian crop, and is hoping they can hold the whole planet hostage with their harvest.
I'm hoping there's a way to get their wheat while simultaneously screwing them over back to the dark ages.
This makes me almost as angry as the West investing in more oil and gas in response to being held hostage by fossil fuel producers.
I read that less than 1% of the 18-29 year-old crowd "strongly approves" of DC's half-assed responses to these crises.
I hope they have the sense to vote in their own interest this fall. Sadly, the same polls say that, like most generations were before them, they're still young and stupid, and are planning to stay home from the polls. Some things never change.
> I read that less than 1% of the 18-29 year-old crowd "strongly approves" of DC's half-assed responses to these crises.
Sincere question: has there ever been any examples in US history of 18-29 year olds strongly approving of any handling of something controversial?
Even if I did approve of how any administration handled anything I am sure that at best I would fall in the "approve" category. "Strongly approve" seems to imply (to me) that I believe an administration did the best they could in handling a situation.
Yeah, all because of Russia. I wonder how no one had found some "Russian trail" in Sri Lanka.
Don't worry, your supremacist dreams won't come to pass. You can't take on Russia and the rest of the world is already too pissed with your chauvinism.
>Sadly, the same polls say that, like most generations were before them, they're still young and stupid, and are planning to stay home from the polls. Some things never change.
Yeah, like politicians and, to a point, people that say what you said.
I've never voted and never will.
Not, i believe, through youth or stupidity, but because I've yet to have someone convince me why i should vote.
I'm a Carlinist ..here to watch the shitshow, not to take part in it.
And yes, i do accept all that comes with whoever got voted in. Quite frankly, i havent for the life of me seen a damn bit of difference between the lot of them...anx tgeir moaning, complaining, self-righteous supporters.
If we want rain & stable climate, we need to plant more trees / forests (see bionic pump, natural farming, forest gardens, atmospheric rivers, ...). As mr. Fukuoka says, rain comes not from earth/sky, but from the plants.
We could do that if we'd only replace cow's milk with nut milk and significantly reduce our (egregious) meat consumption. Then we could reforest upto 75% of our fields and it would sure help repair the water cycle / climate instability (among other good things).
If we don't do it, things will get so bad, even west will weep. Good news - it's something even we as individuals can influence. Simply choose plant based food when you can, and help reduce our agricultural impact.
Btw, our fields are not nature - we have too many of them, they are in fact green deserts, it's all deforested land, they don't influence the weather / water cycle in a good way, they destroy biodiversity, they poison everything, even most people have pesticides in their bodies. Our current agricultural / dietary practices are killing the earth.
Sorry, need sleep, so no sources, but somebody has to say it - study it yourself.
Edit: wow, 2 downvotes in less than 1 minute. Let it rain, burger chompers ;)
> We could do that if we'd only replace cow's milk with nut milk
Agree that meat is very inefficient. But…
Dairy animals concentrate the calories on land that can’t be mechanically farmed, converting them into human-usable nutrition.
Even dairy animals on a conventional dairy farm upcycle calories - just searched and learned dairy farmers can boost a cow’s low-quality straw diet with cottonseed meal (high protein). Humans don’t eat cottonseed meal.
I’ve known people with a single dairy cow, or a few dairy goats. I don’t think “nut milk” works without a nut milk factory.
I eat beans for every meal. Fruit and dal for breakfast; dal, veggies and more fruit for lunch; dal and more veggies for dinner (with something like plantain, breadfruit etc.) and snack on nuts and seeds throughout the day. I love the simplicity.
I bet John Deere knows all this as well since their tractors can provided that data right back to them. Scary to think your tractor letting them know when to time food stocks, fertilizer, etc or just sell the data to third parties.
As a John Deere employee I'll confirm we have this data. We also have strict rules about getting access to it, because we are well aware that value comes directly out of our customers potential profit and their profit is what determines how much they buy from us next year.
There is someone with access to that data (dB administrators). They are registered with the SEC as someone not allowed to trade go ensure there is no temptation to look at it.
too much wheat tbh. grow more pulses - anything in Vigna would be neat, and there's a bunch of other really cool stuff too. also, do some reforesting to control heat at ground level and reduce evapotranspiration from lower plantings.
To me it seems that we're coming at the peak heat of 88 year cycle (and that is on top of the global warming base trend) and thus droughts and a lot of similarities to the 1930's. (as a cherry on top the surprising coincidence of political situation - a fascist regime wanting to expand its living space into the same vast agricultural areas of Ukraine, as well as an actively industrializing empire in the Far East having great hunger for the resources and territories of its neighbors).
Empty stomachs breed political unrest. A human constant.
Even in middle school history class we were taught that the 1930's rise of fascism wouldn't be possible without the economic downturn that preceded it. And that the French Revolution never would've happened without huge inequalities.
Now this may have been socialist propaganda (middle school was ~6 years after Yugoslavia), but a lot of it rings true.
[+] [-] jamesash|3 years ago|reply
Skip the first 92 pages and go straight to 93-96 which give a total rundown of all US crop acreage and production, from corn and soybeans down to maple syrup and peppermint oil. Continue with page 97 which has a complete month-by-month rundown on US weather with comments on impact on specific crops.
Comprehensive.
[+] [-] palisade|3 years ago|reply
I'm not sure if this is true still today. But, I doubt they're counting every successful crop correctly. And, there's a lot that can happen before they are actually harvested; floods, insects, blight, drought, etc. For example, there'd be a huge drought and the USDA would announce a bumper crop and he'd laugh. And, that was recent.
Either way, past data is probably pretty suspect. And, today's data might have the same problem. Which means if you're basing prediction models on this you might expect to be disappointed when things don't pan out. This is especially dangerous if we enter an era where food becomes more scarce. It is an accounting issue if you think about it.
[+] [-] akamoonknight|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] greggsy|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] killjoywashere|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jeromenerf|3 years ago|reply
GIS was all the rage, we collected satellite images over Europe, weather and market data and where able to model the date and volume of crop to enter the market. Fact being that we can get an indication of a given crop maturity status from its reflectance, thus how far from ripe it is, see https://gisgeography.com/ndvi-normalized-difference-vegetati... I guess when can train better models nowadays.
In the end, these estimations allowed for… drum roll… speculation.
[+] [-] rootsudo|3 years ago|reply
I just remember chatting way back with an insurance agent that insures crop growth and yields and how much is in a silo and I thought it was all interesting.
Farmers and orgs, probably more the later buy policies that are payable in fiat cash for underproduction or loss. The loss makes sense, but I didn't think it was that big of a market.
[+] [-] wolverine876|3 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] hedora|3 years ago|reply
I'm hoping there's a way to get their wheat while simultaneously screwing them over back to the dark ages.
This makes me almost as angry as the West investing in more oil and gas in response to being held hostage by fossil fuel producers.
I read that less than 1% of the 18-29 year-old crowd "strongly approves" of DC's half-assed responses to these crises.
I hope they have the sense to vote in their own interest this fall. Sadly, the same polls say that, like most generations were before them, they're still young and stupid, and are planning to stay home from the polls. Some things never change.
[+] [-] heywoodlh|3 years ago|reply
Sincere question: has there ever been any examples in US history of 18-29 year olds strongly approving of any handling of something controversial?
Even if I did approve of how any administration handled anything I am sure that at best I would fall in the "approve" category. "Strongly approve" seems to imply (to me) that I believe an administration did the best they could in handling a situation.
[+] [-] foverzar|3 years ago|reply
Don't worry, your supremacist dreams won't come to pass. You can't take on Russia and the rest of the world is already too pissed with your chauvinism.
Good luck reaping what you sow.
[+] [-] InCityDreams|3 years ago|reply
Yeah, like politicians and, to a point, people that say what you said. I've never voted and never will. Not, i believe, through youth or stupidity, but because I've yet to have someone convince me why i should vote.
I'm a Carlinist ..here to watch the shitshow, not to take part in it. And yes, i do accept all that comes with whoever got voted in. Quite frankly, i havent for the life of me seen a damn bit of difference between the lot of them...anx tgeir moaning, complaining, self-righteous supporters.
[+] [-] myshpa|3 years ago|reply
We could do that if we'd only replace cow's milk with nut milk and significantly reduce our (egregious) meat consumption. Then we could reforest upto 75% of our fields and it would sure help repair the water cycle / climate instability (among other good things).
If we don't do it, things will get so bad, even west will weep. Good news - it's something even we as individuals can influence. Simply choose plant based food when you can, and help reduce our agricultural impact.
Btw, our fields are not nature - we have too many of them, they are in fact green deserts, it's all deforested land, they don't influence the weather / water cycle in a good way, they destroy biodiversity, they poison everything, even most people have pesticides in their bodies. Our current agricultural / dietary practices are killing the earth.
Sorry, need sleep, so no sources, but somebody has to say it - study it yourself.
Edit: wow, 2 downvotes in less than 1 minute. Let it rain, burger chompers ;)
[+] [-] teslabox|3 years ago|reply
Agree that meat is very inefficient. But…
Dairy animals concentrate the calories on land that can’t be mechanically farmed, converting them into human-usable nutrition.
Even dairy animals on a conventional dairy farm upcycle calories - just searched and learned dairy farmers can boost a cow’s low-quality straw diet with cottonseed meal (high protein). Humans don’t eat cottonseed meal.
I’ve known people with a single dairy cow, or a few dairy goats. I don’t think “nut milk” works without a nut milk factory.
[+] [-] triyambakam|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] orionion|3 years ago|reply
A billion pounds of California almonds stranded at US ports
https://www.freshplaza.com/article/9442683/a-billion-pounds-...
[+] [-] cercatrova|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dave84|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] baxtr|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] post_break|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] bluGill|3 years ago|reply
There is someone with access to that data (dB administrators). They are registered with the SEC as someone not allowed to trade go ensure there is no temptation to look at it.
I don't speak for the company above.
[+] [-] thriftwy|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|3 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] jl6|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ClumsyPilot|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] delecti|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] summerisle|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] beefman|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] SenpaiHurricane|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] wolverine876|3 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] 99_00|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] causality0|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ccbccccbbcccbb|3 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] trhway|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Swizec|3 years ago|reply
Empty stomachs breed political unrest. A human constant.
Even in middle school history class we were taught that the 1930's rise of fascism wouldn't be possible without the economic downturn that preceded it. And that the French Revolution never would've happened without huge inequalities.
Now this may have been socialist propaganda (middle school was ~6 years after Yugoslavia), but a lot of it rings true.