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Battery cost declines raise prospects of all-electric container shipping

123 points| jseliger | 3 years ago |nature.com | reply

245 comments

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[+] Scoundreller|3 years ago|reply
I think all-electric is a stretch goal. Start off with replacing all of the electric loads on a container ship with batteries.

I’m going to rule-of-thumb it and say 10% of a cargo ship’s energy load is electrical. It’s better to quickly convert 100% of cargo ships to hybrid operation than getting 10% of cargo ships to become 100% electric.

Edit: this paper says that electric loads are 17% of energy on a medium sized cargo ship: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/335751506_STUDY_ON_...

The least efficient part of any ship is turning mechanical energy into electrical, so just leave alone the mechanical part (thrust) for now.

(It’s an old idea of mine that never happened: a kit that could turn any ICE vehicle into a hybrid. More and more loads are becoming electrical instead of mechanical, e.g. electric cooling pumps, electric power steering pumps, electronic transmission, electric hvac, in addition to what was always electric: fuel pump, lighting, control systems).

[+] bell-cot|3 years ago|reply
THIS, but even more so. Electric ships sound cool, but shipping is giga-scale global infrastructure. The mines, battery factories, electric motors, dockside equipment, etc. needed to do this at scale don't exist. If they did, the national power grids sitting behind most major ports could not reliably take the additional load.

So, yes, start small. As in: "Here is one self-contained, mostly self-managing battery, inside one cargo container. We'll modify the electrical system on one ship, so that this battery can connect to it, and looks (electrically, and to the ship's control systems) like one extra generator in the engine room. Once we see how well that works, and fix round 1 of bugs and crew training issues, then we'll try to scale up to 10 ships."

[+] WJW|3 years ago|reply
> The least efficient part of any ship is turning mechanical energy into electrical

Electrical generators can reach 90+% efficiency at turning mechanical energy into electricity. Did you mean to claim turning chemical energy into electrical?

[+] awiesenhofer|3 years ago|reply
Good idea. There are these containerized iron salt batteries now that energy companies use to help with renewable energy storage (or at least plan to). Maybe loading a few of those instead of cargo containers could already take care of most of a ships electricity needs - and for recharging you can just load/unload them anywhere like regular containers.

Article with an image:

https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/02/23/1046365/grid-sto...

[+] ZeroGravitas|3 years ago|reply
Hybrids, as with cars, provide the most benefit when you can run the engine at its sweet spot more often.

I believe some cargo ships have had relatively tiny batteries for a long time, for port maneuvering where the engine is throttled way down. To prevent pollution they now often are forced to plug in when in port too. So I'd guess this is already just going to happen as battery costs reduce and pollution controls and costs rise, but maybe won't have a big impact on long voyages, though every little bit helps.

The other big play in this space is green ammonia, but similarly early moves are to just burn it in modified diesel engines. Longer term they can electrify with fuel cells.

And obviously those two can work together as Fuel Cell vehicles are basically hybrids with the same drive trains as electric vehicles, just smaller batteries.

[+] Gravityloss|3 years ago|reply
A generator or an electric motor don't have a particularly low efficiency or don't wear much? Hybrids happened in locomotives and ships way before cars. Many ships have diesel engines turning generators and then have electric motor propulsion.

You can replace all 23 MW (consisting of 20 MW propulsion and 3 MW electrical) on one ship with batteries + propulsion motor.

Or you can replace just the 3 MW pure electric part with batteries, getting rid of the auxiliary motors and their generators, doing it on 8 ships.

In the latter case you don't need the one propulsion motor, that's true, so it might be somewhat better.

[+] Someone|3 years ago|reply
I would start with smaller ships and shorter distances and build from there.

https://zeroemissionservices.nl/en/homepage/ seems to work for short distance inland shipping (‘seems’ to because from what I can tell, they only have a single customer with a single ship, making it more like a demonstrator)

[+] b112|3 years ago|reply
Meanwhile, users buy the kit, convert, get tired of charging and also gassing up, so connect an inverter to an alternator and charge up that way.

"But I'm helping the environment!", they say.

Edit: just realised this may seem snarky. It is just that sometimes, this is the end result I expect, regardless of legit effort to help things.

[+] fdsafdsfdsa|3 years ago|reply
>The least efficient part of any ship is turning mechanical energy into electrical

I think you meant "most".

The least efficient step is converting chemical energy into mechanical energy.

Given the cheapness of fuel oil and geneator sets, and the expense of batteries, what possible financial argument is there for doing this?

[+] squarefoot|3 years ago|reply
> a kit that could turn any ICE vehicle into a hybrid.

Doable but unpractical in many situations. Internal combustion engine based vehicles are usually a lot heavier than their electric-born counterparts, so their performance would suffer.

[+] newsclues|3 years ago|reply
I’d like to see a fleet of autonomous small ships. Start with car carriers for expensive cars.
[+] thelastgallon|3 years ago|reply
Nuclear ships and intercontinental renewable connections can fulfill all energy needs [1] [2] . Nuclear ships can be flexibly deployed to supply power anywhere in the world if there is an emergency. It is unlikely we'll have low power production worldwide at the same time. A small fleet can address a range of concerns.

Better yet, they can carry cargo, 40% of shipping, that is 4.5 billion tons out of the 11 billion tons of total maritime shipping is fossil fuels. [3]. We could have 40% of ships fleet as nuclear ships instead of carrying fossil fuels. If we have the tech to have 40% fleet nuclear, why not make it 100%? There are hundreds (or thousands?) of ships and they can carry cargo as well as supply power when docked. Of course, we have to add PowerDocks at ports and a connection from port to the grid.

Ships use the dirtiest fuel. Large ocean-going ships tend to use bunker fuel, the world’s dirtiest diesel fuel – a toxic, tar-like sludge that usually contains 3,500 times more sulphur than the diesel used for cars.[4]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia-Asia_Power_Link

[2] https://www.power-technology.com/projects/morocco-uk-power-p...

[3] https://qz.com/2113243/forty-percent-of-all-shipping-cargo-c...

[4] https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/may/18/dirty-diesel...

[+] rexreed|3 years ago|reply
How about a wind-powered boat powered completely without any batteries or oil at all? Let's call it... a sailboat. Are we just going back in time to when sail-powered ships powered commerce? Of course a sail-powered container ship might not be as viable, but I'd love to see a 16-masted sailing behemoth. The Wikipedia article about the Thomas W. Larson makes for interesting reading: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_W._Lawson_(ship)
[+] mediaman|3 years ago|reply
New ship designs are starting to use wind energy to reduce the amount of fuel consumption.

It doesn't look like traditional sails, but large spinning rotors that interact with the wind to propel the ship forward. It's called the Magnus effect.

This link has more info on it including some of the challenging issues of actually implementing it on large commercial ships.

https://www.marineinsight.com/naval-architecture/flettner-ro...

[+] nickhalfasleep|3 years ago|reply
I wonder if a series of small robotic tugboats could take turns hauling a container ship across oceans. As their battery wears down, another swaps in place. They could recharge at nearby fixed solar/wind floating platforms, or undersea cable recharge points.
[+] spankalee|3 years ago|reply
Airbus's Airseas subsidiary is working on a kite system that can reduce fuel consumption by a claimed 20%: https://www.airseas.com/

Seems like a kite + battery combination could be quite effective.

[+] xbmcuser|3 years ago|reply
I have been predicting this for the past few years. Batteries shaped as shipping containers with container ships replacing spent batteries on shipping ports they visit is the future for shipping.
[+] belltaco|3 years ago|reply
Has anyone thought of large rafts of floating solar panels being towed behind a ship? Given the massive surface area of the ocean I wonder if a few football field sized floating solar panels can recharge the batteries during the day time.

Also, what about windmills on the ship itself?

[+] Retric|3 years ago|reply
Large container ships are already larger than football fields. As in 61.5m wide and 400m long, though not a rectangle they are surprisingly boxy. You might get 4MW in ideal conditions and average a little over 1MW over the day, but those engines are putting out 58MW, these ships need a lot of power 24/7.

Remember for scale those 20,000 little boxes stacked up are the exact same thing you see semi trucks carrying.

[+] cogman10|3 years ago|reply
I calculated it out once. The issue is container ships need MASSIVE amounts of energy to move.

As for windmills on the ship... well... sails are a thing we've used for generations :D No reason to convert mechanical energy into electric energy back into mechanical energy.

[+] jasonjayr|3 years ago|reply
Windmills on boats?

So like, sails? :)

Iirc there has also been wind-driven electrical generating devices on boats too.

[+] ok_dad|3 years ago|reply
A few football fields would cause a lot of water drag and also probably not even be enough power. A solar panel is about half a kW, and I’m guessing a big ship like that will take upwards of 80 to 100 MW normally, so you need like 160k to 200k panels.
[+] Schroedingersat|3 years ago|reply
> Also, what about windmills on the ship itself?

Great idea, powering a boat with wind. If only someone had thought of that sooner!

Less facetiously, it's usually better to use cylindrical rotating sails (which need power, but far less) or kites. Combined with solar could be an interesting prospect though.

[+] googlryas|3 years ago|reply
Drag. If you really wanted to do only green shipping, you could have these pads sprinkled across the Atlantic/Pacific, and have boats pull up them to charge up so they can make it to the next pad and hop across the ocean.
[+] 6t6t6t6|3 years ago|reply
> Also, what about windmills on the ship itself?

You mean, like sails?

[+] markdestouches|3 years ago|reply
Large surface area means a lot of friction. I didn't do the math, but my feeling is it's not going to be feasible.
[+] Gravityloss|3 years ago|reply
Ships move such long distances that batteries will be very expensive and will eat a large proportion of the useful load. Ammonia fuel cells, or, as stopgap, even ammonia burned in diesel engines could be a much better fit.

https://techxplore.com/news/2021-03-world-high-temperature-a...

Absence of cheap bunker oil would though maybe motivate for more efficient designs / operations. Ie slowers speeds, variable schedules and all that.

[+] mikewarot|3 years ago|reply
>a 300 MW charging station

Assume 90% efficiency - that means dropping 30 Megawatts of heat into the water in port. That could be a problem.

Also - 300 Megawatt single point loads? What's that going to do to grid stability?

[+] chrismartin|3 years ago|reply
A nuclear plant dumps a lot more than 30 MW of waste heat into its adjacent body of water. Is that a problem?

Power grids can be upgraded, and a grid-connected battery that can send 300 MW in the other direction during occasional supply shortages is actually really good for grid stability. In that case the ship sells some power at lucrative rates (maybe $1k/mWh?), then recharges later at night after the demand peak.

Bunkering (the process of loading fuel) already takes hours and often requires a rendezvous with a tanker ship at sea, so it's not like ships aren't already inconvenienced by their need to acquire energy.

[+] Tade0|3 years ago|reply
Your average container ship produces as much waste heat when operating already.
[+] _hypx|3 years ago|reply
It’s nuts. You can’t take the study seriously. Charging a few of these ships will easily overwhelm the local grid.
[+] Traubenfuchs|3 years ago|reply
Any idea which companies / ETFs one should invest in for the growing demand in batteries? Or are the evaluations at their limit already anyways.
[+] ianai|3 years ago|reply
Just use nuclear.
[+] ok_dad|3 years ago|reply
As a former navy nuke: no. I don’t want commercial vessels registered in Nosafetystandardsland to have nuclear power. Fuck no.

It’s also not even a little economical.

[+] atwood22|3 years ago|reply
I'm in the anti-nuclear camp. Mainly because I think the inertia around current consumption patterns is too strong to overcome, so adding a lot of nuclear to the mix would make things a lot more dangerous without making things much better.

This is how I think about the danger of nuclear power. Imagine a really safe nuclear power plant. How often will it fail? Let's say, once every 100,000 years. Assuming this probability is uniformly distributed over the 100,000 year time period, it has a 1/100,000 chance of failing in any given year. A failure seems pretty unlikely. But, there are something like 450 operating nuclear power plants in the world. The chance of a single power plant failing in a year is then 1 - (99,999/100,000)^450 which is around 0.5%. That's starting to look a lot more likely now. After 30 years, there is a 78% chance of a nuclear power plant failing somewhere on Earth.

Now what's even more interesting is if you look back on historic nuclear power accidents at INES level 6 or higher. 1957 - Kyshtym disaster, 1986 - Chernobyl, 2011 - Fukushima. And of course there have been other close calls (e.g. Three Mile Island). The cadence of these accidents seems to match the data from the thought experiment above.

[+] survirtual|3 years ago|reply
Watching our civilization dance around infinite energy is like watching cave men hiding away from flames.
[+] arriu|3 years ago|reply
Sea pirates still exist and would love this… you’d need to provide protection and safety, that would probably negate the energy gains
[+] olivermarks|3 years ago|reply
This is one of the endless physics defying articles implying 'acceleration' towards a fantasy all-electric future. Batteries are really heavy and will be exhausted of power very quickly by the continuous load from underwater propellor propulsion.

A small nuclear reactor powered boat would work but the idea of battery powered container ships is specious at best.

[+] pfdietz|3 years ago|reply
Laser power beamed from space. Cover the top of the ship with a large cooled PV array.
[+] biophysboy|3 years ago|reply
What's the situation with cobalt? I know lithium is everywhere, but the fact that so much of cobalt is mined in DRC worries me.
[+] option|3 years ago|reply
nuclear powered ships seems like a great fit for modern container shipping as it has already been tried on aircraft carriers and submarines.
[+] Schroedingersat|3 years ago|reply
Yes. Let's put 200kg of high grade U235 on a boat guarded by 6 guys and drive it past somalia.

That will work out great.

[+] iinnPP|3 years ago|reply
What happens when we run out of Lithium?
[+] 12many|3 years ago|reply
Can we just skip the inefficient electric market phase all together? It's not gonna last and its not any cleaner than fossil fuels so stop kidding yourselves... The military already uses nuclear power for their ships why not the cargo ships?
[+] greedo|3 years ago|reply
Staffing a reactor is expensive and risky compared to electric tech. The risk to reward ratio is too skewed for this to be economically feasible.
[+] chii|3 years ago|reply
is a nuclear powered ship really that much more efficient? The aircraft carrier design goals isn't to make a lightweight, large carry capacity vehicle with low maintenance costs, so i don't see why those designs would fulfill a commercial shipping need.