[orky56]

Great points and a few others to add.

1. Russia has definitely chosen the optimal time to act. Grain harvest is down everywhere due to drought except...Russia (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-62149522) and they naturally benefit. Based on the heating/cooling cycles, the Ukraine land will produce better harvests in the next 10-20 years. So we see Russia impacting Western countries and alliances with grain/oil. China & India are happily importing said oil. Russia still is enjoying its victories in the information war on the West. Obviously militarily, Russia is behind where they would like to be.

2. It's also important to note that artificially low interest rates have allowed businesses to charge more for the same goods/services (sometimes less with "shrinkflation") since consumers/businesses have access to higher lines of credit. High demand inventory is turning over, unemployment is still low, and wages remain stagnant.