[drnonsense42]

They absolutely did not say anything about “obvious” discoveries. That is even more ridiculous of a claim. Which major breakthroughs in stem were “obvious”? Or are you speaking from hindsight, where in this brave new world we’re smarter than all previous generations?

They also did not say there are major advances but they are “really hard” (your words), they said there are no major advances left (by comparing them to continents, which we’ve already all discovered). There is no other way to interpret their words, unless you believe there are additional continents on earth to discover. Maybe atlantis?

The OP is not commenting on individual contributors vs large groups but I will comment on that as I disagree. You are describing the current state of physics (and many other stem fields) and the popular consensus about future advancements. While certainly having hundreds of researchers is necessary on many projects, you have no basis to claim an individual will not make a major breakthrough in the distant future. And frankly, as much as they are necessary, giant labs are strongly encouraged by our current culture. Large profits from monetizing research into products, corporate involvement and funding, staggering bloat in universities, fame-chasing, printing off papers like buzzfeed articles, unprecedented levels of organized fraud in academia… very little of the current culture is conducive to modest, brilliant individual contributors in many fields.

You have no idea how the culture will change in science, how much more intelligent and capable people will be than we are in the distant future with natural selection and gene modification, and whether there will be any more breakthroughs by individuals or small groups that will seem “obvious” in hundreds of years. To say otherwise is frankly dogmatic caveman thinking.

[cgrealy]

“Obvious” was probably the wrong word there. I think “achievable” is probably more apt.

Poor choice of words aside, the point stands.

And as for humans being far more intelligent in the future, I don’t buy it. Maybe in millions of years with evolution, but I’d bet on humanity either killing itself or replacing itself before that happens.

[drnonsense42]

A million years? Let’s crunch the numbers. I think the intellectual honest would acknowledge ashkhenazi intelligence differences. That took quite a lot less than a million years. And certainly intelligence is being selected for more than ever. We’re just, as a race, starting to experiment with gene modification. Would it really surprise you if minor modifications in intelligence aren’t made? It’s not going to be a million years for a significant leap bud.

As for the other point, it is indeed standing, on air.