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anewpersonality | 3 years ago

What do the logicians among us conclude? Occam's Razor? I am not smart enough to deduce the truth of all this nonsense.

discuss

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mikeyouse|3 years ago

A virologist did a fairly comprehensive Bayesian analysis. It's long and technical but he's fully on "team zoonotic":

https://protagonistfuture.substack.com/p/natures-neglected-g...

There's fleetingly little evidence of anything aside from a natural origin. This could be consistent with a natural virus collected at the WIV which subsequently escaped, but the multiple lineages at the market makes this extremely unlikely as well.

LatteLazy|3 years ago

All conclusions are weak because all theories are at least possible and there is no conclusive evidence. Instead of accepting we will never know, people will now tell you with 1000% (1e4) certainty that it was definitely X. They will queue to die on whatever hill their brains have randomly selected. It's like lemmings only they don't actually do that.

systemvoltage|3 years ago

No one seems to be doing that. Can you tell us where anyone is claiming with 100% certainty?

whateveracct|3 years ago

What would you do with the truth? I tend to try to not work hard on questions whose answers are immaterial to me.