On the other hand, we just went through a once per lifetime pandemic and a once per lifetime consumer stimulus package. Supply chains are wrecked and we're in a period during which international trading patterns could massively change. Meanwhile,
* China is still purusing zero COVID.
* There's a land war in Europe with Russia effectively cut off from the Western world.
* German manufacturing, once a workhorse, is being crushed by energy costs
* much of the developing world is swimming hard against the current just to stay alive.
I don't think we are in a situation analogous to 1947, of course, and I do think we are in or at least heading into a more-than-technical recession. But "irrelevant because that only happens after once in a lifetime extremely disruptive events" is a pretty... odd... take in 2022.
> On the other hand, we just went through a once per lifetime pandemic and a once per lifetime consumer stimulus package
And—relatedly—a once-in-ever declaration of a recession of less than one quarter, because of how uniquely sharp the decline in output, employment, and all the recession-relevant measures was, even though it quickly reversed direction due to stimulus and other policy responses.
So it's kind of weird people today pretending that the 2-consecutive-doen-quarter thing has always been an ironclad definition of a recession.
> German manufacturing, once a workhorse, is being crushed by energy costs
Hmm, maybe Germany can solve this the same way they "solved" ballooning Berliner rents: just pass a law saying how much energy should cost. Simple. They do love regulations over there.
Or just ask Gerhard Schröder and the rest of their former chancellors who were in bed with Russia, to blow their hot air through the pipes this winter. They have enough of it.
InefficientRed|3 years ago
* China is still purusing zero COVID.
* There's a land war in Europe with Russia effectively cut off from the Western world.
* German manufacturing, once a workhorse, is being crushed by energy costs
* much of the developing world is swimming hard against the current just to stay alive.
I don't think we are in a situation analogous to 1947, of course, and I do think we are in or at least heading into a more-than-technical recession. But "irrelevant because that only happens after once in a lifetime extremely disruptive events" is a pretty... odd... take in 2022.
dragonwriter|3 years ago
And—relatedly—a once-in-ever declaration of a recession of less than one quarter, because of how uniquely sharp the decline in output, employment, and all the recession-relevant measures was, even though it quickly reversed direction due to stimulus and other policy responses.
So it's kind of weird people today pretending that the 2-consecutive-doen-quarter thing has always been an ironclad definition of a recession.
ChuckNorris89|3 years ago
Hmm, maybe Germany can solve this the same way they "solved" ballooning Berliner rents: just pass a law saying how much energy should cost. Simple. They do love regulations over there.
Or just ask Gerhard Schröder and the rest of their former chancellors who were in bed with Russia, to blow their hot air through the pipes this winter. They have enough of it.
beebmam|3 years ago
The comment you replied to gave evidence that directly contradicts the OP comment.